I would suggest this. A number of regions in California know that they are being unfairly taxed, with significant amounts of their California-state-taxed funds going to either LA or San Francisco. The “gift” money isn’t coming back to where it started.
If you ask anyone in LA....they will vote against the measure...probably 80-20 vote, my humble guess. However, beyond LA...it’s going to be closer to 50-50. The more rural areas will be higher with 60-40 voting in favor of a break-up.
Toss in the fact that the state legislature is unable to come up with a workable budget year after year, and more taxation on the table for future years....there’s a problem here. Add the fact that various companies in urban areas of California are looking at ways that they can relocate because of regulation going on....and you’ve got a potential mess brewing.
Let’s say it passes with a 55-45 win. Then, what? Will the state legislature and governor just ignore the vote and keep going? The odds are yes, with someone then tossing a court challenge to the legislature, which I think is what the intent of this whole thing will go to. Imagine some state supreme court judges having to invent a method to keeping the state as one, or having to agree that the vote has legit purposes.
Actually it is not about tax money going to LA and San Francisco. It is about water going to LA and San Francisco. If this passes the new state in the Sierra would sell/give water to the conservative farmers in the Central Valley, but charge LA and San Francisco through the nose for any leftovers. That’s what the coastal libs will try to stop.
I think the President and Congress have to approve it too