Posted on 08/01/2013 9:24:07 AM PDT by whitedog57
Initial jobless claims were released this morning (326k) and beat expectations of (345k). It was the best beat in initial claims in 3 months and the lowest absolute level since January 2008.
ijc080113
In fact, initial jobless claims are back to Reagan Recovery levels of March 1984 (although it took a lot longer to get there).
When I compare initial jobless claims with homeownership rates, you can see a disturbing trend. Jobless claims are positively correlated with homeownership rates (both have been falling).
ijchomeown
Continuing jobless claims fell to 2,951K that also beat expectations of 3,000k. This level is still above the Reagan Recovery (or Clinton and Bush Recoveries).
cjc08012013
Here is the rub. While initial jobless claims are as low as March 1984, real GDP growth is now 1.7%, while it was 8.20% in March 1984. The Obama “Recovery” is only 20% of the Reagan Recovery.
realgdpcarter
And both labor force participation and the employment-to-population ratio are back to Regan Recovery numbers. But going the wrong way!
lfpemppoprat
Let’s wait for the Friday’s jobs report and whether The Fed sees improving jobless claims as a reason to ease on back the gas (QE) pedal.
Filing for SSI does not qualify as an unemployment claim.
Exactly. These numbers are B.S. Sure there is some improvement in the economy, but unemployment is at least twice as bad it is reported.
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