Skip to comments.More than 6 million self-described “evangelicals” voted for Obama.
Posted on 11/08/2012 3:41:20 PM PST by Anti-Hillary
Why & what else do the exit polls tell us about how Christians voted?
[CORRECTED VERSION: In the first version of this column, I incorrectly reported a figure of 25 million evangelicals voting for Obama in 2012. The actual number, as now noted below, is about 6.4 million. Please forgive my error.]
As the smoke clears from the wreckage of the Romney defeat on Tuesday, some intriguing yet disturbing facts are coming to light.
* Fewer people overall voted in 2012 (about 117 million) compared to 2008 (about 125 million).
* President Obama received some 6.6 million fewer votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 (60,217,329 in 2012 votes compared to 66,882,230 votes in 2008).
* One would think that such a dynamic would have helped Romney win clearly it did not.
* Incredibly, Governor Romney received nearly 1 million fewer votes in 2012 than Sen. John McCain received in 2008. (In 2008, McCain won 58,343,671 votes. In 2012, Romney won only 57,486,044 votes.)
Why? How was it possible for Romney to do worse than McCain? It will take some time to sift through all of the data. But here is some of what we know from the 2012 election day exit polls:
The President received a whopping 71% of the Hispanic vote (which was 10% of the total votes cast), compared to only 27% for Romney (McCain got 31% of the Hispanic vote in 2008). Obama also won 56% of the moderate vote, which was interesting given that Romney (who got 41%) was widely perceived by the GOP base as being a Massachusetts moderate. The President lost married women (getting only 46% of their vote to Romneys 53%). But won decisively among unmarried women (67% to Romneys 31%).
That said, what Im looking at most closely is the Christian vote, and here is where I see trouble: 42% of the Protestant Christian vote went for Obama in 2012. This was down from 45% in 2008. 57% of the Protestant Christian vote went for Romney in 2012. This was up from 54% that McCain won in 2008. When you zoom in a bit, you find that 21% of self-identified, white, born-again, evangelical Christians voted for President Obama in 2012. Youd think this decrease in evangelical votes for Obama would have helped win the race for Romney, but it didnt. 78% of evangelical Christians voted for Romney in 2012. Yes, this was up from the 74% that McCain received in 2008, but it wasnt nearly enough. To put it more precisely, about 5 million fewer evangelicals voted for Obama in 2012 than in 2008. Meanwhile, some 4.7 million more evangelicals voted for Romney than voted for McCain. Yet Romney still couldnt win. Meanwhile, 50% of the Catholic vote went for Obama in 2012. This was down from the 54% that Obama won in 2008. 48% of the Catholic vote went for Romney in 2012. This was up from the 45% that McCain won in 2008. Yet it still wasnt enough.
Now consider this additional data: In 2008, white, born-again, evangelical Christians represented 26% of the total vote for president, according to the exit polls. In 2012, white, born-again, evangelical Christians represented 26% of the total vote for president, according to the exit polls. In other words, we saw no change at all in the size of the evangelical vote, no net gain, certainly no surge, no record evangelical turnout, despite expectations of this. Of the 117 million people who voted on Tuesday, therefore, about 30 million (26%) were evangelicals. Of this, 21% or about 6.4 million evangelicals voted for Obama. By comparison, of the 125 million people who voted in 2008, 32.5 million (26%) were evangelicals. At the time, Obama won 24% of evangelicals, or about 7.8 million people. Whats more, in 2008, 27% of the total vote for president was Catholic, according to the exit polls. In 2012, only 25% of the total vote for president was Catholic. Remarkably, this means that Romney got a higher percentage of the Catholic vote than McCain, but millions of fewer Catholics actually voted in 2012, despite having Rep. Paul Ryan, a practicing Catholic, on the ticket.
What does all this mean? A few observations: 1.During the GOP primaries in 2012, it was reported that there was record turnout by evangelical voters they were fired up and mobilized then (though largely behind Sen. Rick Santorum.)
2.There were concerns by a number of Christian leaders going into the 2012 elections that Romneys Mormonism might suppress evangelical and conservative voter turnout. 3.The Romney campaign worked hard to not only to win the evangelical vote but to turn out more evangelicals to the polls but it did not work.
4.Despite Obamas pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, anti-religious freedom record a record presumably abhorrent both to evangelicals and conservative Catholics Romney simply was not able to cut deeply enough into Obamas evangelical and Catholic vote.
5.If Romney had been able win over significantly more evangelicals and/or dramatically increased evangelical turnout in the right states he would have won the election handily.
6.It is stunning to think that more than 6 million self-described evangelical Christians would vote for a President who supports abortion on demand; supported the same-sex marriage ballot initiatives that successed in Maryland, Maine and Washington; and was on the cover of Newsweek as Americas first gay president. Did these self-professed believers surrender their Biblical convictions in the voting booth, or did they never really have deep Biblical convictions on the critical issues to begin with?
7.Whatever their reasons, these so-called evangelicals doomed Romney and a number of down-ballot candidates for the House and Senate.
8.This is what happens when the Church is weak and fails to disciple believers to turn Biblical faith into action.
9.Given the enormous number of evangelical Christians in the U.S., this bloc could still affect enormous positive change for their issues if they were to unify and vote for the pro-life, pro-marriage candidate as a bloc.
10.What will it take to educate, register and mobilize Christians to vote on the basis of Biblical principles, and what kind of candidates could best mobilize them? This is a critical question that Christian political leaders as well as pastors must serious consider. As we have seen, just a few million more evangelicals voting for pro-life, pro-marriage candidates could offset other demographics that are becoming more liberal.
11.That said, we need national candidates who take values issues as seriously as economic and fiscal issues, and have strong credentials on these values issues, and can talk about these issues in a winsome, compassionate, effective manner.
12.We need pastors registering voters in their churches and teaching the people in their congregations the importance of the civic duty of voting.
13.None of this should come, however, at the expense of pastors and other Christian leaders clearly, boldly and unequivocally teaching and preaching the Word, proclaiming the Gospel, and making disciples, and helping believers learn to live out their faith in a real and practical way in their communities, including being salt and light to preserve what is good in society. What we need most in America isnt a political revival but a sweeping series of spiritual revivals a Third Great Awakening. As men and womens hearts are transformed by the Gospel of Jesus Christ, they will, in time, vote for the values they are internalizing from the Bible. As I wrote about in Implosion, if we dont see a Third Great Awakening soon, Im not convinced we will be able to turn this dear nation around in time.
We are experiencing the Great Apostasy.
Polls are either wrong or we are facing Evangelists that no longer believe in God. Unfortunately, I think it is the latter.
Ping to read later
Must be that large right to life evangelicals. /sarc
There are rainbow flags on church marquees all over the valley I live in. There’re a couple of lesbians one of whom calls herself a methodist minister, right down to the clerics collar, living right around the corner from me. I doubt they voted for Romney.
Actually I think we’re experiencing a great deal of divisive democrat and “moderate” manipulation.
We have some of these idiots right here on FR. THANKS MORONS!
I ain’t buying it. No Freakin’ way am I believing Romney could have been beaten in a fair election. Call me delusional, say it’s all sour grapes and I’ll get my head around it in the next few days. Not happenin’. This race was stolen and I just can’t prove it. Probably voting machines but most likely a series of cheating scams big and small is the culprit.
Romney loses to MMCCAIN?????
Christians that think they are so holy and could not vote for Romney - hatred which is not Christian. They have a religion but not a relationship with God. Hope a lot of the stay at home voters are some of those that are being laid off now.
And then there’s that.
My uncle and his entire family go to some church that has a name like “The church of Jesus Christ, social redeemer” or some crazy crap like that. Its pure communism behind a cross.
...and another FReeper who thinks that you can attract flies with vinegar weighs in.
Another explanation, the most logical, is that the six million Evangelicals who voted for Obama look like Obama also.
“Romney loses to MMCCAIN?????”
He lost to him in 2008, so why are you acting so surprised?
Unlike you pathetic cowards who choose to blame everyone but your pathetic candidate. Just like a democrat, the only difference is that Romney isn’t black so you can’t use that.
Don't consider for a second that the church is full of people who have not a thing to do with christianity let alone conservatism.
Ignorance can be an ugly thing.
If that is true, we are not talking about Evangelicals are we? Sorry, there is a major difference in beliefs here...
Romney was not pathetic candidate. The pathetic part was in the Romney camp however. Their vaunted ORCA GOTV project was a total sham and failure. Poll watchers found out they didnt’ have their permit. No one told them they needed them. The charade totally collapsed without any backup plan that entailed the old fashioned GOTV methods.
You have sealed the fate of a great nation! Be proud that you were there and helped, be sure to tell your kids that you killed thier future and thier childrens future. You have something to be proud of. You are not alone there are many like you who will have the brand. Nice to know you and your families will feel the wrath
We certainly do. And on another thread I have at least one of them claiming virtual ownership of FR, and calling me, a contributor to this site of 14 years standing, a troll.
I was warning before the election and during the GOP Primary, that getting Romney as the GOP Nominee - would suppress the Evangelical Vote.
It’s known that the GOP cannot win without the full Evangelical Right on board and supporting the candidate. Romney just was NOT GOING TO FLY with many Evangelicals and that was known long before it ever came down to the convention.
But, many preferred to ignore it. The LOSS of the election is something I attribute DIRECTLY to this - a very significant portion of the Evangelicals refusing to vote for Romney!
Maybe next time, someone will take these things into consideration about the Evangelicals, instead of telling them that they “better come on board” - or else!
From the #s I crunched, yes, more than 6 million voters -- both in THIS election -- as well as the previous one...voted for Obama.
Keep in mind this still only represents 20% of all white Evangelicals.
(I mean even 22% of gays & lesbians voted for Bush in one of the elections...2004)
So, yes, this is terrible that 6 million Evangelicals voted for Obama.
Especially when you realize that 16 million Catholics voted for Obama...and probably around 20 million non-Evangelical Protestants voted for Obama...
Uh! So they voted for a Moslem, but not a Mormon. Sure thing.
Satan is alive and thriving. Sad
We’re doomed! A radical like Obama getting that many evangelicals, any other democrat running for POTUS is bound to get even more!!!
Add up the amount of votes that 0bama won in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Iowa.
Throw in Wisonsin & Nevada as well.
It wasn’t that hard to cheat a little in each of those states, enough to win them.
The GOP needs to investigate the votes in each of those states before they are ratified on Dec 17
Sorry, you can NOT be an Evangelical and vote for Obama! That means that either our definition of Evangelical is wrong or we have loosen the idea so that anyone can define themselves as an Evangelical with no idea what that actually means!
The short version is that we do not have Evangelicals that would vote for Obama - otherwise, they could NOT be Evangelicals - a major contraindication here for me!
In reality NO REAL EVANGELICALS would ever vote for Obama!
So, that's what's wrong with the polls (SEE PEW 91%).
Now, about asking people if they are Evangelicals, you'll find that term to be quite flexible. It includes every sort of Christian BUT the Catholics, and even then I've heard an MSM news gal refer to the Pope as an extreme Evangelical.
We live and learn eh!
I carefully differentiate between regular old fashioned Protestants and Holy Rollers by referring to the Holy Rollers. The only folks I've ever heard criticize me for that were Episcopals and they are almost not Christian in any meaningful sense anymore, so who are they to complain.
What we need is some data on the Holy Rollers. They are the fastest growing Christian component and we don't know how they vote ~ but they have 2 or 3 potential Presidential candidates already lined up and ready to go in the future.
Let's get the regular pollsters out there interrogating some of those self-described "Evangelicals" to tell us if they're really Holy Rollers or something else ~ denomination names might well be in order for this.
Then the Episcopals can scream and shout over that. Should be a regular circus.
Doesn’t the RNC handle the GOTV for the candidate ?
Note, the article gets the number wrong on the 2008 election ~ Reps had 59 million and the Dems had 69 million votes. That's 128 million votes, not 122 million.
So, stop with the blamecasting upon Evangelicals please. Just look at a 2012 Presidential election results map, for goodness sake. See all those red states? Practically all Evangelical strongholds.
A worse case of barking up the wrong tree entirely, I've seldom seen.
Good point but that was before we had 4 years of Obama. I’m not sayin’ Romney was then or is now a good choice. I’m just sayin’ based on polls and just the mood of the nation and most especially The Republican Party the momentum and enthusiasm for Mitt was phenomenal. No I didn’t just see the USA through rose colored glasses this election cycle. I speak as a person who did not and does not care for Mitt Romney. He is far too liberal for me. I still voted for him though. It was a vote against Obama more than a vote for Romney. I was far, far from alone there. But Republicans voting against Romney in a Primary vs not voting for the Republican Candidate in a General election, and one of this magnitude, makes no sense.
Do you really believe there were fewer Republicans voting this election than last? I don’t. Even if the evidence is just circumstantial my gut tells me this election stinks of corruption.
“Even the elect will be deceived.”
So, he got rid of the competitors by hook or crook.
Otherwise, he was the same old 20% guy, and in the end McCain's numbers beat Romney's numbers ~ except for some technical details.
I said Bachmann's hubby would have done better. I stand behind that.
I couldn’t agree more. From your post to God’s ears.
See this thread :
WTH are you talking about? I haven’t sealed anything. I voted for the American!
A "church" doesn't have to have a name like that. The constituents of all the major denominations are attending assemblies where the major indoctrination is in the "social gospel" and in "social justice" which is exactly what you say. Their communicants are not believing in defeat of sin in their lives by conviction, deep godly sorrow, confession, repentance, and new birth in the realm of the Spirit; and separation from phony religion.
Declaring association with Christ without becoming dead to self, sin as a master, and the world characterizes the message of such denominations.
Bet you didn't know that did you.
All Mormons are not pure ~
But you cannot be a Christian and vote for Obama.
I have noted this on couple other threads. People keep posting this stuff based on the Tuesday totals. There are still votes being counted. Romney is going end up with more votes than McCain got and Obama will be short of 2008 by only a couple million not 6M.
Well, it's possible...but Evangelicals weren't alone on this...and more white non-Evangelical Protestants & Catholics stayed out of the election process this go-round...compared to even more Evangelicals turning out: See: How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis [Evang. up; other Prot. + white Catholics down]
Quite frankly, I do not believe any exit polls.
If all the pollsters and experts got this whole election this wrong by so much, there is no way the exit pollsters got it right.
This is all conjecture.
Any self identified Evangelical who voted for Obama in 2012 is not an Evangelical to begin with. Period. Whether they think so or not. Catholics are schizophrenic when it comes to the Bible and their core beliefs, but that is not so with true evangelicals.
What I want to see is WHERE the 2012 vote totals were less than the 2008 vote totals.
The lines, even with early voting, were much longer than 2008. There was less motivation for ANYONE to vote for Obama then in 2008. We know that there were many who voted for Zippy in 2008 that were not going to vote for Zippy this time.
S0, eleven million voters more voted last time than this time? When there were so many inclined to vote against Zippy?
Remember 2010? What happened to those voters? They decided to let Zippy win another four years?
The Hispanic difference between 2008 and 2012 is 10% of 3 percentage points. So no,pandering to them is not the answer. And the number of single women is not greater than the number of white males, white women who are married, etc. so they are not the cause either.
Frankly, if the pollsters ,Luntz, Rasmussen, Rove and Morris got it this wrong, they need to go away. I say they get no more chances to screw up. The folks here on FR probably could do a better analysis of the polls than they did. So now they are telling us how to solve the GOP problem base don exit polling that is not in any way exact, and we are supposed to believe them and go the way they tell us.
After four years of Zippy and his disastrous policies,a Vice President with dementia,and people all over single married, young older all out of work or making less than before, with a high unemployment rate and no plan to fix anything—that’s the guy Americans voted for?
Baloney. This election was stolen in key precincts in key states and the fraud is so out there it is staring us in the face.
The Dems went for broke—remember their theme—By Any Means Necessary—to keep Zippy in the Oval Office.They are counting on the GOP to do NOTHING. They have been buggering election results since 1960 on the Presidential level. They fight every voter ID initiative or voter roll cleanup operation that starts.We saw how they almost stole 2000 right in our faces.
So why is 2012 any different? In four states there were multiple incidents of Romney votes changing to Obama votes before the voter even pressed the “VOTE” button. How do you think that happens? Magic?
Romney didn't get up to McCain's numbers, so we have a 2 million vote gap.
The difference is readily explained by demographic change, death, disease, disability ~ etc. Someone forgot to register more Republicans and then encourage them to go vote for the Republican candidate. I think that's behavior not really of much interest to the GOP-e ~ they leave it to the locals ~ even if Romney had kicked sand in their faces ~ does not work well!
Evangelicals voted. Black Evangelicals voted for Obama. They were at least 10% of his vote ~ to wit, 6 million people.
White Evangelicals voted for Romney ~ probably in greater percentages than other groups ~ even Mormons.
Well, yes & no.
I mean, you could say that no early Christian who was a true Christian would be sleeping with their mom-in-law; but the church @ Corinth had that...and the apostle Paul addressed it.
(You have even less church discipline these days...so there's ALL kinds of people on the rolls of church membership lists...and remember, Jesus said that the tares would be among the wheat...)
You never know if Virginia or Ohio gets put in the GOP column, less electoral votes for 0bama, less of a mandate
I think they are the Santorum avengers.
“Polls are either wrong or we are facing Evangelists that no longer believe in God. Unfortunately, I think it is the latter.”
They don’t believe in God but they consider themselves “spiritual,” dontcha know...
I think Rosenberg is slightly over here...I think it could wind up @ 6.4 million (after all uncounted votes are counted)...
As Callahan has pointed out, they are still counting votes. In CA alone...1/2 million from 7 counties...+ provisional votes in ALL states...
Yet, if we only went with the count right now...the # of white Evangelicals who voted would be anywhere from 29.5 million to almost 31 million. 1/5th of that ranges from just less than 6 million to less than 6.2 million.
We have some of these idiots right here on FR. THANKS MORONS!”””””””.... YEP, they are beginning to crawl out now, then there are these: Enough to put Romney over the top it seems, but by all means lets stick to Principles.
Thanks for reinforcing my point which was to solve the mystery of the 6 million Evangelicals. Everybody seemed to assume they were white.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.