Posted on 11/01/2012 5:58:56 PM PDT by parksstp
A Time Period for when each state will be Projected, based on the state's poll closing times. (All times in Eastern Standard Time).
7PM - The first polls close in 6 States (GA, SC, IN, KY, VT, and VA). At exactly 7 PM, Romney will be declared the Projected winner in SC(9) and KY(8), while Obama will be declared the projected winner in VT(3). GA(16) and IN(11) will probably be declared too "EARLY" to call, but will most likely be in Romney's column by the time the next set of state polls close. VA will be too CLOSE to call. This first set of Poll closings will give Romney a 44-3 Electoral College Lead by 7:30PM EST.
7:30PM - Polls close in NC, OH, and WV. Romney will immediately be Projected the winner in WV (5). Ohio (18) will be too CLOSE to call. It will be interesting to see whether NC(15) gets classified as too "EARLY" or too "CLOSE" to call. I believe it will take about 45-60 minutes before NC gets called for Romney. So by 8PM EST, Romney will have a 49-3 Electoral College Lead.
8:00PM - Polls close in AL, CT, DE, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN, and DC. Romney will immediately be declared the winner in AL(9), MS(6), OK(7), and TN (11). Obama will immiediately be declared the winner in CT(7), DE(3), IL (20), ME(4), MD(10), MA(11), RI(4), and DC(3). MO (10) and NJ(14) will both be initially classified as too "EARLY" to call, though I suspect the networks to call NJ(14) for Obama before 8:30 and hold off on calling MO for Romney to give the appearance of Obama catching up in the Electoral vote. PA (20), FL(29), and NH(4) all get classified as too "CLOSE" to call. So, by 8:30PM, the Electoral Count will be ROMNEY 82, and OBAMA 79
8:30PM - The time period between 8:30-9:00 should be interesting for Romney. Polls close in AR(6) where Romney will immediately be Projected the winner. It is also during this timespan that I suspect enough data will come in to call NC(15) and eventually MO (10) for Romney, though I know the networks will put it off for as long as they can. I have the NC call pegged for 8:35-845 and MO 8:50-9:00. On the other hand, I think the networks will want to get these out of the way because Romney is going to have a good 9'oclock hour. So, by 9PM, I have the Electoral Count as ROMNEY 113, OBAMA 79.
9:00PM - Polls close in AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, SD, TX, WI, and WY. Romney will immediately be declared the Projected winner in KS(6), NE(5), SD(3), TX(38), and WY(3). Obama will be declared the Projected winner in NY(29). AZ, LA, MN, and NM will be classified as too "EARLY" to call, while CO and WI will be too CLOSE to call. Like NC, not sure if MI will get "EARLY" or "CLOSE" status and it could say a lot which terminology is used. Sometime between 9-930PM when some actual vote totals come in, Romney will be declared the winner in AZ(11) and LA(8). It will frustrate the networks that they'll have to wait on NM (5) and MN(10), but eventually (around 9:30-9:40PM) will get called for Obama. Since no polls close at 9:30, a lot of focus will be on the states back in East. VA takes about 3-3.5 hours to count without snafus. If the networks can't call it or PA before the west coast polls close, this is a good sign for Romney. By 10:00PM EST, I expect the Electoral Vote count to be ROMNEY 187 and OBAMA 123
10:00PM - Polls close in IA, MT, NV, and UT. Romney will immediately be projected the winner in UT(6). MT(3) will be classified as too "EARLY" to call, but should be in Romney's column by 10:30-10:40. NV and IA will both be classified as Too "CLOSE" to call. Again, there are no poll closings at 10:30, so focus will come back to the Eastern states. I suspect the networks will try to call MI(16) close to 11:00 to give Obama a big push when the west coast states close. Also, by this time if the networks can call PA (20) for Obama based on data in Philly and the suburban counties, they will do so by 10:50PM. These are states that wern't supposed to be hotly contested, but the spin will be that Obama is pushing back ahead with the closing of the polls in CA. By this point, I think FL(29) will be able to be called for Romney, but the networks absolutely won't do it until AFTER 11PM. By 11:00PM, I expect the Electoral Count to be ROMNEY 196, OBAMA 159
11:00PM - Polls Close in CA(55), ID(4), ND(3) HI(4), OR(7), and WA(12). Romney is immediately declared the winner in ID(4) and ND(3), while Obama is immediately declared the winner in CA(55), HI(4), and WA(12). Oregon will be classified as Too "EARLY" to call. After these immediate 11:00PM projections, the Electoral Count will be OBAMA 230, ROMNEY 203. And now you see why the networks will not call FL, VA or any other battleground looking good for Romney prior to 11:00PM.
11:30PM - The networks have no choice but to now call FL(29) for Romney. To offset Romney taking the Electoral College lead back, the networks will try to call OR(7) before or around the same time. And once the Vegas cheaters get done with their numbers, NV(6) will also be called for Obama before Midnight. By Midnight, the Electoral Count will be OBAMA 243, Romney 232.
12:00AM - Oh, you thought you would be in bed by now? The networks will try to get to midnight with an Obama lead before they are forced to call VA & NH. VA is going to be delayed by a razor thin Senate race, but it SHOULD be called by 12:00AM. NH is more spaced out so they have an excuse to go slower, but these two states when called will probably be called close together, and for Mitt Romney. This will give us ROMNEY 249, OBAMA 243. Meanwhile, reports of shananigans in OH and WI will be widespread. And because the networks love ratings, don't expect a call on these states anytime soon.
1:00AM - Polls close in AK, where Romney is immediately declared the winner. This result forces Obama to win OH or he loses the Election, so all other states become secondary. ROMNEY 252, OBAMA 249
1:30AM - CO (9) is finally called for Romney, who has a 13,000 vote lead with 99%
1:50AM - IA (6) is finally called for Obama, who has a 6,000 vote lead with 762,000 to Romney's 756,000.
This gives us ROMNEY 261, OBAMA 249 by 2:00AM
2:45AM - Obama has about a 9,000 vote lead in WI with 99%. The margin had been much closer until the final numbers from Madison and Milwaukee came in at the end. This gives us ROMNEY 261, OBAMA 259. All eyes turn to OH.
3:00AM - Romney has about a 5,000 vote lead in OH with 100% in, but the networks other than FOX won't declare him the winner. The lawyers parachute in and we get a repeat of 2000.
Official Electoral Vote Tally: ROMNEY 279, OBAMA 259
Texas polls close at 7pm local time. That means that only Democrat controlled El Paso and some patches of desert will be closing at 9pm eastern. The presidential race will be decided before the North Juarez come in.
Florida might be decided on the Central zone votes, but most of the polls there also close an hour earlier than the ‘poll closing times’ shown on the list.
I plan to verify this Tuesday night.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.