Time Period Projections for Election Night

270 to Win ^ | 11-01-2012 | parksstp

[103198]

Mark for November 6th...

[diamond6]

Project it for November 7, 2012 at 12:01 a.m. EST.

[Tanniker Smith]

If romneybtakes PA, it’s pretty much over. Hard to see him taking PA and not also taking OH.

[Gay State Conservative]

I wonder if MSLSD & Friends might,accidentally of course,call Florida for Baraq while polls in the Panhandle are still open.You know that Alexrod....he thinks of everything.

[GLDNGUN]

the networks other than FOX won't declare him the winner

You give Fox way too much credit and too much nerve. They wimped out in 2004 in a nearly identical situation, and they will this time around as well should your scenario turn out to be accurate.

In 2004, they had already called Ohio for Bush while the other networks refused. On the other hand, Fox would not give New Mexico to Bush despite the fact that EVERY OTHER NETWORK HAD. Why wouldn't Fox give New Mexico to Bush? Because it would have put him over the top since they had given Ohio to Bush, and they didn't want to be the only network declaring Bush the winner. It was simple as that. Once the other networks begrudginlgy gave Ohio to Bush, they declared him the winner since they had long ago given him New Mexico. What did Fox do when the other networks gave Ohio to Bush? Viola! Suddenly New Mexico was no longer "in doubt". LOL They gave New Mexico to Bush and declared him the winner as well.

Fox had no good reason to do those shenanigans other than not want to declare the winner when the other networks weren't, even though they said Bush had won the state (Ohio) the other networks said was the only state in doubt. I have no reason to believe Fox has got any braver since then. They offered no explanation for their actions then, despite my many queries to them and some of their announcers, such as Sean Hannity.

[Colofornian]

You forget that Ohio has a querky state law where they can't begin counting provisional votes until 10 days after...

My prediction: We won't know the winner until Nov. 18 -- and even then it will be contested by the losing side [repeat of Florida 2000]

The Ohio provisional ballots will be under lock and key...hmm...who's going to have "access" to those votes????

The Democratic machine is already working overtime to bump the # of Ohio provisional voters...the more provisional votes, the more that the state would not be called for Romney...

Also, the Dems would find all kinds of way to challenge provisional votes not being counted in the Nov. 16-17 count of them...

The MSM's gonna love the ratings...and the Obamaites will love the potential Ohio "end-runs" in play...

[Colofornian]

You forget that Ohio has a querky state law where they can't begin counting provisional votes until 10 days after...

My prediction: We won't know the winner until Nov. 18 -- and even then it will be contested by the losing side [repeat of Florida 2000]

The Ohio provisional ballots will be under lock and key...hmm...who's going to have "access" to those votes????

The Democratic machine is already working overtime to bump the # of Ohio provisional voters...the more provisional votes, the more that the state would not be called for Romney...

Also, the Dems would find all kinds of way to challenge provisional votes not being counted in the Nov. 16-17 count of them...

The MSM's gonna love the ratings...and the Obamaites will love the potential Ohio "end-runs" in play...

[Colofornian]

Redo on my Nov. 18 date...A lot of states have around 2-3 weeks to verify provisional ballots...

If Ohio can't even get access to those votes til Nov. 16, with Thanksgiving kicking in, we may be looking @ the first week of December...

Somebody can check Ohio law & see what their deadline is for confirming/verifying provisional voters.

[PAR35]

9:00PM - Polls close in... TX,

Someone needs to do some homework either on election rules or time zones.

[hoagy62]

What I want to know is....if the MSM does NOT declare a de facto winner, and in the time following the election it is proven that MASSIVE vote fraud is occurring on the Dem side because they know they lost....what is anybody gonna DO about it?

What I’m HOPING for is such an overwhelming victory for Romney that there’s no POSSIBLE way the networks can hide, spin, or obsfucate the truth. Heck...I wouldn’t be shocked if some of the networks went dark rather than report a Romney win.

[Grams A]

Is this Eastern Standard Time now or after Daylight Savings Time goes into effect this weekend?

[Smittie]

great post. lets hope that is how it goes down

Actually, I hope it's not that close. I hope it's a repeat of 2010. People & all these polls are stuck on 2008, but this is a different race. Remember Mclame suspended his campaign about a month from the election and didn't put up a fight in the election. He only did as well as he did because of Sarah Palin. Plus, I'm hoping all the conservatives who sat home don't make that mistake again.

[The Fop]

What a pathetic exercise in thinking inside of the box. Sounds like parksstp has read one too many articles about how Romney can “eek out” a win.

Sorry, not buying it. All signs point to a wave election. But here’s more evidence that some people are just too insecure to read the writing on the wall.

[Gay State Conservative]

Sorry,not buying it.All signs point to a wave election.

If only! This one's gonna be close...damn close.Why? Because Romney was giving out inaccurate info in that "secret" tape.It's not 47%.....it's at least 49.5%

[Gay State Conservative]

Standard time.

[Teacher317]

Because Romney will be ahead for the first few hours, I confidently predict that the MSM will “magnanimously” refuse to call ANY states until ALL are done voting (so as not to diminish West Coast votes for Obama, of course).

[HannibalHamlinJr]

OHIO PROVISIONAL BALLOT NIGHTMARE - up to 250,000 possible provisional ballots ...

Here's what I'm talking about ....

From Newsmax a few days ago (w/quotes from Ohio officials (Republicans are responsible for this one ...))

“I would just say that this is a potential nightmare-in-waiting,” says Blackwell.

Blackwell believes that could result in an unprecedented number of provisional ballots being filed – some 250,000 or more. Such a large number of ballots being held, presumably under armed guard, for 10 days until they can be opened, would bring to mind the historic 2000 post-election battle in Florida. That recount was marked by ballot disputes — and inevitably, lawsuits.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ohio-provisional-ballots-delay/2012/11/01/id/462413#axzz2B4LVnu2D

[CPT Clay]

Ping for Later Thanks

[parksstp]

The information on poll closings came from http://www.270towin.com. They have a page and set the times of state polls closing to the EST in which the last polls in that state close (if it happens to cross two time zones, like FL) which is the earliest it could be called.

They listed all closings in EST to make it simpler, so that’s the model I used.

[parksstp]

If you think this was a bad exercise, then this was probably really bad

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdFJFUm1KSTAzMFZaeGJoal9Ob1EwV0E#gid=0

I went county-by-county projecting the vote for Romney and Obama, basing the counties previous results on the Bush/Kerry, Strickland/Kasich, Obama/McCain, and Union question to determine the probable votes for Romney and Obama in each county. My model shows Romney by about 12,000 votes.

Here’s one for Nevada. Same thing, same analyzed race data from 2004, 2008, and 2010. Obama has Romney by at least 3 points here, unless Romney does the unthinkable and runs at the same level as Sandoval, which is highly unlikely.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdDZXaFNqMEYzQXRINUp2OGJZWkc3MWc#gid=0

And then IA. By the margin of one suburb, I think Obama will survive in IA. I don’t see Romney getting to 770,000 votes here, but I don’t see Obama dropping below 765,000.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdElyaEVzZzROUW1Zb3l2MGpxcGpIanc#gid=0