Israel's October Surprise

Creative Minority Report ^ | August 20, 2012 | Patrick Archbold

[NYer]

I find it difficult to know if this is merely a further attempt to ratchet up the pressure on the Obama administration and Iran or if it is the real deal. Israel's Channel 10 reports the PM Netanyahu is determined to strike Iran's nuclear capabilities before the US election.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is determined to attack Iran before the US elections,” Israel’s Channel 10 News claimed on Monday night, and Israel is now “closer than ever” to a strike designed to thwart Iran’s nuclear drive.

The TV station’s military reporter Alon Ben-David, who earlier this year was given extensive access to the Israel Air Force as it trained for a possible attack, reported that, since upgraded sanctions against Iran have failed to force a suspension of the Iranian nuclear program in the past two months, “from the prime minister’s point of view, the time for action is getting ever closer.”

Asked by the news anchor in the Hebrew-language TV report how close Israel now was to “a decision and perhaps an attack,” Ben-David said: “It appears that we are closer than ever.”

He said it seemed that Netanyahu was not waiting for a much-discussed possible meeting with US President Barack Obama, after the UN General Assembly gathering in New York late next month — indeed, “it’s not clear that there’ll be a meeting.” In any case, said Ben-David, “I doubt Obama could say anything that would convince Netanyahu to delay a possible attack.”

This is the type of October surprise from which no one can calculate the fallout, for Israel, the US elections, and the world. If it does happen, we can expect at least a limited war in the Middle East and a worldwide recession. The shock of the attack, the uncertainty, and the substantial short to mid term impact on oil prices would assuredly throw the world back into major recession.

And that would be worth the price if we can prevent Israel from becoming a smoking ruin. Alas, that is probably the least guaranteed outcome. But never again means never again.

[The Great RJ]

An Israeli attack on Iran might not help Obama much in the elections. Obama will not be supportive of the Israelis and could even out right condemn the action hurting him with Jewish voters. He will also not be able to use serious military force to defend US interests as that will provoke the anti-war crowd who are a big part of his base. Oil prices will spike pushing gas over $4 per gallon and will make his decisions to stop the Keystone Pipeline and oil drilling in the US look foolish and short sighted.

However for the US the economic situation will worsen due to oil prices, but Obama will play the old blame someone else game.

[Bryanw92]

>>An Israeli attack on Iran might not help Obama much in the elections.

Israel doesn’t have to help Obama much to push him over the top for another 4 years and a guarantee that the US as we know it will cease to exist.

[nascarnation]

I don’t see how an Israeli attack on Iran helps Baraq in any way, shape, or form.

Just my 2 cents.

[Bryanw92]

>>I don’t see how an Israeli attack on Iran helps Baraq in any way, shape, or form.

It’s a major destabilizing event in the world and he can’t be blamed for it. Quite a few “Independent” fence-sitters are very anti-Israel and this can be easily spun to make Israel the aggressor as oil prices skyrocket. Obama can pretend to be a peacemaker as he hmmm’s and ummm’s his way to doing nothing useful, but the “Independents” will read that as statesmanlike.

[lbryce]

And that would be worth the price if we can prevent Israel from becoming a smoking ruin. Alas, that is probably the least guaranteed outcome.

Now, isn't that the very quintessence of this entire debacle.

[GreatRoad]

If Israel attacks Iran, Jews around the world and US will be killed in retaliation by extremists, marginalized from business and employment by moderates. Homes arsoned by OWS types. This will advance Obama’s agenda whether or not he is reelected.

[familyop]

Hard to tell for sure. Israel might instead be adding to defensive weapons and/or developing greater offensive weapons against any future attacks from Iran...or from any or all of the nations. Maybe Europe should concentrate more on defense against nuclear attacks from Iran, because Iran’s missiles could reach targets around Europe. Maybe the Iranian mullahs are being more deceitful than most politicos around the world realize.

[Carbonsteel]

Israel doesn’t have to help Obama much to push him over the top for another 4 years and a guarantee that the US as we know it will cease to exist.

If Obama betrays Israel, then you have no idea just how true that statement might be.

[Bryanw92]

>>If Obama betrays Israel, then you have no idea just how true that statement might be.

He doesn’t have to betray them. All he has to do is sit back and let them attack Iran. But, that’s probably what you mean when you say “betray”.

[2001convSVT]

If this conflict goes nuclear, will the radioactive fallout reach the US? I heard that radiation from Japan's leaking Fukushima power plant is reaching California. I also read that radiation monitors and iodine tables are in high demand.