Skip to comments.Leading Trend Forecaster: We Are Not Entering a New Recession (We're In A Depression)
Posted on 07/15/2011 4:26:02 AM PDT by blam
Leading Trend Forecaster: We Are Not Entering a New Recession
July 14th, 2011
Trend forecaster Gerald Celente, of the Trends Research Institute, in his latest Trend Alert to subscribers, says that media presstitutes continue to sell Americans and the rest of the world the big lie of recovery.
Its nothing more than a cover-up. We never exited the recession that started in 2008.
For the second consecutive month, employers added scarcely any jobs in June, startling evidence that the economic recovery is stumbling The government also revised downward the small gain for the previous month to 25,000 new jobs, less than half the original estimate. (The New York Times, 9 July 2011)
Dismal Jobs Data Rock US Recovery and Worries Grow Over Jobs, read the respective headlines in the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal on July 9th, dissipating the air of optimism that had recently rallied equity markets.
Employment! More than factory orders, GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, durable goods employment was the one big number that counted. There was no way to spin the consequences of 18,000 mostly low paying health care and hospitality jobs into the hopeful message implied by the 125,000 jobs forecast by most economists.
The equation was simple; the more people out of work, the less they consume. And in the United States, where consumer spending accounts for an estimated 70 percent of the GDP, without increased consumer spending, the economy was again recession bound.
Virtually overnight, one dire employment report unraveled two years worth of government spin and media complicity. In April 2010, Vice President Joseph Biden promised, were going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month. And in August 2010, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner declared that the actions we took at its height [of the crisis] to stimulate the economy helped arrest the freefall, preventing an even deeper collapse and putting the economy on the road to recovery.
But almost a year later, talking on Meet the Press, two days after the devastating employment data was released, the new, revised Geithner forecast was, Oh, I think its [the recovery] going to take a long time still. This is a very tough economy. And I think for a lot of people its going to be its going to feel very hard, harder than anything theyve experienced in their lifetime now, for some time to come.
Like the Biden boast long-buried and un-exhumed, the Geithner statement, a direct contradiction of his former projection went unchallenged, given the usual free pass by the Meet the Press Presstitutes.
There was, and is, no return to recession. As The Trends Research Institute had been forecasting since the onset of the Great Recession and the Panic of 08, all those bold actions proudly cited by Geithner were no more than financial Prozac multi-trillion-dollar band aids, palliatives, placebos and cover-ups packaged as TARP, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, QE2, and so on. At best, the bold actions merely guided the Great Recession into a brief remission, and that is all.
Were still in the thick of it, and we have perhaps a decade left to go before any semblance of normalcy returns to the American economy (if were lucky).
Yesterday, our President threatened social security retirees by suggesting that the government wouldnt be able to send them their checks come August. This, of course, is a complete fabrication and political power play by Mr. Obama, once again threatening that the sky is falling in order to bamboozle the American public into spending trillions more dollars on a failed economic recovery policy.
Its not working. Nothing the government has done thus far has worked.
As Mr. Celente points out above, its about jobs and consumer spending, neither of which are improving in any significant way.
Unemployment benefit applications have topped 400,000 per week for the last 14 weeks, and save a couple of months under 400,000, have been this way since the recession began. Consumer spending is being pummeled, falling below expectations again. The economy is contracting and financial firms are quietly lowering earnings expectations across the board.
Many will argue that we did, in fact, exit the recession when our GDP growth quarter-over-quarter went positive last year. But considering that GDP growth has been full funded by government intervention over the last three years and the real inflation rate of 10% has a lot to do with the increase in spending over that time, it should be clear that global GDP growth numbers are fictitious, much like this so-called economic recovery.
The recession never ended. More importantly, we are in the midst of the next Great Depression right here and now.
When everything is going up Gas, Food and unemployment but my house value is going down faster.
Do ya think?
So many owe me an apology I will never hear. Life is ridiculous. You are condemned if you try to warn people and after the fact will be condemned if you don't. Raw stupidity.
It should be noted that the only reason we aren’t seeing breadlines, “hobos” and homeless camps is due to the safety nets that resulted from the “great” depression.
It should also be noted that over reliance on those safety nets are now a big part of our current financial mess.
You have got that right. That is the difference But so many are in the safety net it is going to collapse. The Government Bubble. When it bursts everything will go to Hell overnight.
Many of my liberal cousins are no longer ridiculing me about my dire warnings. Today, they’re questioning me about food storage and maximizing garden space.
I fact, I think they’re actually moving to a more moderate center politically.
We never exited the recession that started in 2008.
We already knew this. Eff the CNBC types and talking heads...the only thing that ‘recovered’ was the stock market..and that only because the printing presses never stopped via QE1,2. There are an awful lot of gullible people out there who may believe we ‘recovered’, then there’s us. We have the media to overcome..but the message is clear, 0bamanics is an epic failure.
I’ve noticed that, too. The message tide is shifting.
King Barry says prosperity is just around the corner.
I believe him.
The phrase Greater Depression was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.
I have been saying this... finally it is sinking in. We have been in a depression and we are not even close to the bottoming.
WIC cards are the new breadline. Right next to you as you pay for your groceries at the checkout.
I’ve embraced my liberal cousin’s willingness to learn about becoming more self sufficient. They all grew up in cities like Ann Arbor, Kalamazoo, and Minneapolis and are completely helpless.
I guess I try to see the good in the worsening economic situation in the fact that it has the potential to bring families back together. In the extreme worst case scenario, I point to my grandmothers house with the 5 bedrooms and 3 and a half acre lawn in a small town for a fallback position for them.
Avoiding the riot zones will be imperative. It will turn in to one huge Watts one it gets started. All the major cities with the Urban Welfare Culture will explode if the IV is cut off.
I’m glad I live in a small town (technically a village) with no main roads coming through and more than 10 miles from the highway.
I’ve been saying this for a year.
“This way to the egress — November 2012”. T-shirts, bumperstickers, coffee mugs...
FUBO GTFO 2012!
Far worse that being in a depression we have borrowed and pissed away any money that could have been wisely used to help bring us out of this depression.
On top of that idiot-boy is trying to destroy the energy we need to help pull us out.
Oh Well: We will have a clean environment outside the door of the poorhouse.
Fall back positions should be in the county, otherwise your open to the city or surbuban mob.
We have nearly a years worth of food stored in our home, AND I have the ammo and firearms to protect it and my family. It’s 50 miles to the nearest big city (100,000) and I feel that’s to close but it’ll have to do. The biggest thing is to be prepared and ready to use what ever deadly force is required to safeguard your family and what’s yours.
Overkill is underrated.
They’ll have to contend with us as well when the SHTF. I may not actively seek them out for punishment, but I will certainly not help them in any way if I suspect they foisted the mess upon us.
Virtually overnight, one dire employment report unraveled two years worth of government spin and media complicity.
More damage to ensue until the electtions.
Yes, and now it's in bubble territory and Bernanke has no choice but to start QE3 to try and keep it inflated (no pun intended) through the election. It's the only positive-looking economic news this administration has.
We may never see the widespread price inflation that the growth in the money supply would suggest; just like in 1929 after a decade of Fed-pumping, everything will "mysteriously" collapse.
I do not envy the next president.
“The phrase Greater Depression was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back”
It should be named the Greatest Depression. The narcissist-in-chief might actually welcome being associated with anything having “greatest” in the label. And it certainly would be more honest (since “greater” implies there might yet be one even greater still). Hopefully, Americans have learned a bitter lesson and will never again voted into office someone as inexperienced or arrogant as Obama. If so, then we’ll never experience an economy this dismal again. It may take 16 consecutive years of Republican rule to straighten out (meaning majorities in House and Senate in addition to Oval Office), but it is not at all impossible to restore the U.S. to its former greatness. We just need Dems to stay out of the way.
Neither Recession, nor Depression — this is the Great Oppression.
Not only economic calamity, but also a deliberate assault on our form of constitutional government, hence on our liberty.
Amen. I've been warning people since NAFTA kicked in and ever since "Free Trade" was the latest/greatest buzz word. Deer-in-the-headlights or "right wing kook" response. I gave up and have assumed a bunker mentality. When others now discuss the economy I just nod and smile and make sure my stash is fresh.
Sidebar: When NAFTA was under discussion, one of my boys worked on the railroad in Monroeville, AL. He echoed my thoughts to the people there and got the same response I did. A year after NAFTA, Vanity Fair, the one industry in town, moved to Mexico. The hue and cry went up to boycott VF. My boy said "Why didn't you raise Hell when NAFTA was up for a vote?" Answer: "Whut's a NAFTA?" He too, just nods and smiles now.
Thanks for the ping.
I was listening to Jim, Rogers the other night, the talking head asked him, what if Greece defaulted. Jim said” It would be the best thing that could happen. They would get rid of all of their debt, they could start over. Their money would be some of the strongest in Europe, so bring it on” Might work for the U.S. as well
I've seen people spend themselves into bankrupcty, fail to change their behavior and go right back into bankruptcy. If we don't have a change in behavior the spending will only continue.
You’re absolutely right. The liberal burbers will be in a state of denial saying “....but I’m for you don’t you understand...” as the yutes carry everything out the door.
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