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Michael Barone unpacks November 2 and what it means for the GOP in 2012
ConservativeHome ^ | November 23, 2010 | Ryan Streeter

Posted on 11/26/2010 8:01:16 PM PST by neverdem

Screen shot 2010-11-22 at 21.02.37 Michael Barone is one of America's best-known political commentators. He is the principal author of the Almanac of American Politics, a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a regular columnist at the Washington Examiner.

ConservativeHome's Ryan Streeter asked him 5 questions to get his take on the recent elections.

RS: What must Republicans do to demonstrate they are acting on behalf of the voters who just made them the majority in the House, and what does history teach us about their prospects if they fail on this front?

Barone: I think they have to present and advance serious proposals to reduce the size and scope of government and to repeal and replace Obamacare. I think voters will understand that they will have hard time overriding Obama vetoes, but they will expect serious proposals. Republicans in 2010 were given control of one house of the legislative branch. In 2012 they will be asking for majorities in both houses and control of the executive branch as well--a harder sell. To gain that they must show that they have serious policy alternatives.

RS: You're an astute observer of British politics as well as American politics.  The Conservatives experienced quite a surge, albeit short of a governing majority, in the British elections last May. How would you compare or contrast the British Conservatives' electoral success with that of Republicans on Nov. 2?

Barone: One similarity is that both British Conservatives and American Republicans failed to make the gains some of their leaders expected and hoped for among the very high education demographic--"people we knew at school." Republicans made greater gains than Conservatives in culturally conservative and white working class areas--the former, because America has many more of them; the latter, because the Democratic party has probably never had, and if it did once have it lost long ago, the strong bond with white working class voters that the Labour party has had in Britain.

RS: What do we know about the broad middle of the electorate that swung back so decisively to the Republicans on Nov. 2?  

Barone: I'm still crunching the numbers, trying to learn more. My initial take is that Republicans did especially well among white ethnics (recapture of the House seat that includes Staten Island, the one part of New York City where you have a hard time finding a New York Times) and among Hispanics in at least some states (AZ,, NM, FL, TX). Also perhaps among Asians: I need more data on this.   

RS:  You've pointed out in a recent column that the GOP didn't do as well in the West as it did in the East.  Is that a fluke, or is there some underlying trend at work here?

One reason is that Hispanic voters broke heavily for Democrats in CA and NV, at least at the top of the ticket. Also apparently CO, where Republicans effectively forfeited the governor race, with a small but probably decisive negative effect on the race for senator. The casino industry worked NV very, very hard for Harry Reid; given the unlikelihood of John Ensign's being reelected in 2012, they faced the possibility of NV having two freshman senators if Reid lost. They very much did not want this to happen.

RS: You're one of America's leading demographers and readers of trends.  What trends do you see in the electorate on which the GOP should reflect?

Barone: Young voters. Their 34% margin for Obama in 2008 was reduced to a 17% margin for House Democrats in 2010. I think there's a fundamental tension between the Obama Democrats' policies (centralized command and control, mid-twentieth century style) and the way young Americans live (with their own iPod playlists and Facebook pages, fashioning their own worlds). I think Republicans should argue that their twenty-first century policies will create a framework in which young Americans can choose their future, while the Obama Democrats' policies would empower centralized experts to choose their futures for them. 


TOPICS: Government; Health/Medicine; Politics
KEYWORDS: election2010; election2012; obamacare
I didn't suddenly lose my mind. When I tried to post it in News/Activism, I got this message: "typepad.com should be posted to the “Bloggers” forum."

Here's the URL: http://conhomeusa.typepad.com/bigideas/2010/11/michael-barone-unpacks-november-2-and-what-it-means-for-the-gop-in-2012.html

1 posted on 11/26/2010 8:01:20 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

we need to retake the money issue - the democrats have done a good job of framing the 2010 election as being bought by corporate or foreign $ - yes the electorate is just dumb enough to believe that.

and we need to find a way to neutralize Union intervention somehow. just a killer...


2 posted on 11/26/2010 8:09:29 PM PST by IOWAfan (Iowa Hawkeye Football Fanatic)
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To: neverdem

I say choke on it Barone when it comes to the *replace* part of it.

It only means more gubmint, period.

Get out of our lives, including you Barone iffen’ you did not get the memo from Nov. 2nd.

This guy is too smart by half, half the time.


3 posted on 11/26/2010 8:16:53 PM PST by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: IOWAfan
and we need to find a way to neutralize Union intervention somehow. just a killer...

You can start with that in Iowa, where your outgoing 'rat gov just gifted AFSCME with a nice pay raise.

That sort of crap is just simply an outrage. If any pol did something like giving a big business supporter a payoff like that before bowing out, he'd be lawyering up and preparing to take the 5th in legislative hearings as soon as the new legislature took over. But democrat corruptocrats do that kind of s**t regularly for the unions that own them and Iowa voters accept it as business as usual.

4 posted on 11/26/2010 8:23:48 PM PST by Spartan79 (Malo periculosam libertatem quam quietam servitutem.)
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To: quantim

Nonsense. The Democrats and their willing accomplices in the Republican party have been screwing up the delivery of health care in this country for decades. Changes do need to be made, hence the ‘replacement’. It doesn’t mean replacing it with some other form of socialized medicine. It means putting into place a positive way forward at the same time as we remove Obama’s negative one.


5 posted on 11/26/2010 8:35:03 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: neverdem
The casino industry worked NV very, very hard for Harry Reid;

For those who go in for boycotts, seems to me Las Vegas is due for one.

6 posted on 11/26/2010 8:41:34 PM PST by upsdriver
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To: upsdriver

I was supposed to exhibit at the upcoming CES show in Vegas.

fruck ‘em.


7 posted on 11/26/2010 8:51:36 PM PST by the crow (If I don't have a right to play defense, then I'll go on offense. - Enterprise)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

Suit yourself. *Replacing* is still big gubmint.

No thanks.

Personally would rather see the SEIU choke on it.

Yes, expenses are out of control.

Unions and lawyers, this is not rocket science.


8 posted on 11/26/2010 8:55:26 PM PST by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: the crow

If anything could ever prove that organized crime runs Vegas it is their support for that evil bastard Reid.


9 posted on 11/26/2010 8:57:15 PM PST by upsdriver
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To: upsdriver

the casinos in Vegas


10 posted on 11/26/2010 8:58:13 PM PST by upsdriver
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To: quantim

No. Government is the one that has forced the situation to be the way it is. Replacing it with a plan to get the ‘gubmint’ out of the way is still replacing it.


11 posted on 11/26/2010 8:59:44 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: Spartan79

The Philippines has a solution to that type of crap. No-one can be appointed, fired or given pay raises within 60 days prior to an election and up until the turnover of office to the winner. This stops some of the cronyism and the placing of judges and administrators loyal to the politician from being imbedded into the new administration.


12 posted on 11/26/2010 11:44:15 PM PST by usnavy_cop_retired (Retiree in the P.I. living as a legal immigrant)
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To: neverdem; AdmSmith; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
[Republicans] have to present and advance serious proposals to reduce the size and scope of government and to repeal and replace Obamacare. I think voters will understand that they will have hard time overriding Obama vetoes, but they will expect serious proposals.
Thanks neverdem, it's nice that the software cares that much. :')


13 posted on 11/27/2010 7:11:22 AM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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