Posted on 11/02/2008 1:19:44 PM PST by rickmichaels
If the early voting trends are a hint of what is to come on Tuesday then the news is not great for Obama. In Wisconsin (deep blue normally) early voting is up - across the board. It is up by 25% in democrat heavy big cities, and up 40-50% in GOP havens outside the cities:
With Madisonians casting early ballots at a rate of 1,200 to 1,500 a day, that means the total could get as high as 33,000 by Tuesday, perhaps even 35,000.
That would mean that early voting is up by roughly 25 percent over the previous record year, 2004, when 25,258 ballots were cast before Election Day.
In 2004, the previous record year, roughly 365,000 Wisconsinites cast ballots before the polls opened on the first Tuesday in November. That was around 12 percent of the total turnout.
This year, the number will be dramatically higher. The Government Accountability Board predicts at least 15 percent of the projected 3.2 million voters will do so before Tuesday’s voting begins. That’s in the range of 500,000 early voters
Early voting is a statewide phenomenon. While the boosted numbers on Madison and Milwaukee are surely good signs for Obama, the John McCain campaign is justifiably excited by the dramatic uptick in early voting in traditionally Republican areas.
In Cedarburg, the suburban-Milwaukee community where McCain and running-mate Sarah Palin made their first campaign stop after the Republican National Convention, requests for absentee ballots are up 40 percent. More than 1,700 early votes were cast by mid-day Friday. In the Racine County village of Caledonia, more than 2,800 early votes had been cast by Friday — a boost of more than 50 percent over the 2004 figure.
The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that the pattern of 40 percent to 50 percent spikes in early voting are being seen in suburban areas that, while not always Republican in their leanings, are more generally so than the state’s bigger cities and populist rural stretches.
If we looked just at percentages the actually edge in WI is on the McCain-Palin side, doubling the percentage in the Obama areas. The question is who has more voters? Right now, though, interest and participation is equal in deep blue Wisconsin, so one must assume this reflects accurately what is happening across this nation.
McCain-Palin or giving Obama-Biden a run for it, and still can pull out an amazing upset. Because one group is not showing up in Wisconsin:
Second bottom line: Most early voters are not new voters. They are super-citizens who are opting to avoid what they fear will be a chaotic Tuesday. The real “surge” for Obama — if it is to be — will come on Tuesday.
Sorry, but if these new voters aren’t showing up now, they won’t in sufficient numbers to make a difference on Tuesday. Obama is in trouble, he has energized the opposition more than his own wobbly base.
—not that it may mean anything, but a couple of weeks ago on the largely rural path I took from Burlington to Platteville, Wisconsin, McCain-Palin outnumbered Nobambi yard signs at least twenty to one-—
I can attest to the same thing in FL. When I early voted, the line consisted of:
(1) African Americans
(2) Senior Citizens
(3) Jewish Senior Citizens
I saw a total of two people younger than me in the whole line (I’m 29).
When I got back to DC to tell my coworker (I diehard Obama fan) he knew it was bad news. He says the lazy youth are going to screw the Democrats again. I sure hope he’s right.
And here's something I expected when a Commie is running for president that the media and their pollsters have not publicly acknowledge. Conservative turn out will be complete.
He looks like he could replace Hazel on the Magic Bullet infomercials.
GOOD NEWS!!!
As a WI resident I see the problem differently. You see it is my belief that those in the urban areas who have voted early, only did so because they knew they would be unable to fill out absentee ballots on Tuesday while they were standing in line to vote...again.
I know of 5 people so far in Wisconsin who have ALWAYS voted for the RATS and they voted McCain/Palin. This state is full of stupid socialist, but their are still some that are willing to put country first!
I have a gut feeling based on what I have seen and heard here in Wisconsin that the media is not going to know what hit them next Tuesday.
The wife & I voted early (if FL) Friday. We understood that the regular Tuesday voting would be heavy and did not want to risk being somehow shut out by a large/late crowd. We want to make sure we got our votes in and I suspect that is the same with a lot of others as well. God willing, your next CIC won’t be a spineless piece of dog filth.
Why should the youth or anyone for that matter go make the effort to vote for Obama ... after all, they keep telling us the Messiah has this election sewn up.... I couldn’t wait to get to the early polls to vote for Palin/McCain... screw the pollsters!
I live in a very deep-blue state, but this year, for the first time I remember, I’m seeing yard signs for McCain/Palin. Not a lot, but some. This might sound unremarkable except in ‘04 and ‘00 I never saw yard signs for Republicans. Something is going on out there.
—yep—on that trip, I was going to do a count of McC-P vs. Nobambi—gave it up as there were so few between Burlington and Monroe—only saw Obambi signs to speak of in Platteville—home of one of the branches of what is now the Wisconsin “university” system-—
You gotta wonder if they'll show up for the long lines and say, "Screw this, he already won" and leave.
I wish i could find that video clip of some RAT pundit on election night 2000 or 2004 that scream "Those Bastards let us down again!" when he saw exit polls. I cant remember who/when it was but I have been looking for it for years now.
The last two election cycles have seen very close elections. Kerry won by 11,384 or 0.38% and Gore won 5,708 or 0.22%. And there was voter fraud in Milwaukee. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see this year by as close.
“Gore won 5,708 or 0.22%.”
I believe when all the absentee ballots were counted Bush won the total vote.
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 62,040,610 50.73% 286 53.2%
John Kerry John Edwards Democratic 59,028,439 48.27% 251 46.7%
Last election totals 2004. The formatting disappeared when I pasted, sorry.
Despite the urban legend Bush won the popular vote.
Impossible. Bush didn’t win the EVs. Gore did.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.