Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
If people like me bolt, then I'm sorry to say that the door won't be hitting me on the way out. It'll be hitting you and it'll be hitting the GOP majority.
I don't relish the thought of this but I also know that it won't be permanent -- 4 to 8 years max...
it wouldn't be the end of the world if I had to live with her for 8 years constitutional maximum.
I see you don't know her well at all.
hey Dark,
You know, this idiot reminds me of another idiot that was essentially telling conservative Christians that they were not needed anymore.
If you want to know more, check out this thread....
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1453719/posts
I won't name names, but you I am sure you fill figure out who I am talking about relatively quickly....
"If people like me bolt.."
Poeple like you bolted in the last election in hopes of electing Kerry to send a 'message'.
Didn't work then either.
"I don't relish the thought of this but..."
Yes you do.
You're practically oozing orgiastic over it.
That was the entire reason you mentioned Hillary to begin with.
"I also know that it won't be permanent -- 4 to 8 years max..."
You wish.
"Then I'll be able to live with President Rodham-Clinton."
I shocked that only a few people have called you on this.
I want to think it's only because it's Sunday afternoon naptime, but instead, maybe it's a reflection of just neocon FreeRepublic has become.
I assure you that I'm not a "seminar caller". I've listened to Rush since '93 (watched the TV show starting in '92) and I've read freerepublic since '98. I'm a conservative my friend but sometimes you have to choose what you object to least.
Actually I am shocked that the ZOT has not appeared yet.
Somewhere, Tom Cullen is smiling.
o..O
*twitch twitch*
My antennae are going bonkers with these guys...
they both wiggle the same way to me....
A middle ground here is that we elect someone who believes that the federal government should not be involved at all.
There are certain things the federal government should do, like protect the right to keep and bear arms, and somethings that it should not do, like mandate what kids are taught in school.
We need to return such issues to local control. Then if you want your school to teach that the earth is balanced on the back of a swimming turtle then have at it.
You are not taking money from me at gun point to support it, you are not forcing my kids to be taught it.
The end result is that I don't give a flip and nether do you and suddenly the problem vanishes.
People don't want their money taken at gun point to support something that they do not believe in. And really, who can blame them?
Any democrat elected will just worsen the problem. So would most RINO's because they can not grasp that fact.
Because of Guiliani's POV on the RKBA he is not acceptable.
Likewise because of McCain/Fingold McCain is not acceptable.
Voted aginst Kerry. I was always and am still strongly pro-war and was strongly in support of W.'s reelection -- never doubted voting for him.
Kerry's "significant statement" (in the words of Sen. Fullbright) always made me sick.
"I'm a conservative my friend but sometimes you have to choose what you object to least."
Compromise once, it's no big thing, right?
But after awhile, all you're doing is compromising.
I hear tell of a road that is paved with...
Fried out my detector.
But you'd vote for Hillary/
Now THAT is contradictory.
sometimes you have to choose what you object to least.
May your chains lay lightly upon you.
Hillery! and her dupes are to be suffered no longer.
hehehe
I isntalled blast shielding last week :)
I was able to afford it with money from the Energy Bill :-)
Yes you do. Because as I pointed out you are already in her camp. You want her elected because her view point, which is that these are issues that the federal government should be involved with, matches yours. That says it all.
I repeat you are not a conservative.
Drats!
I forgot to upgrade the fuse in the detector.
That's why it fried.
Remember, if you'll compromise once...
you'll compromise twice.
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