Posted on 12/29/2021 7:06:27 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT
Insurers need experts to calculate risk. Among those number-crunchers’ riskiest endeavors are the tortuous exams for credentials.
Kaylee Cohen studied two months for an actuarial exam last year—then failed it. She dreaded telling the actuaries at the insurance company where she was interning that she had flunked.
“But when I told them, they said, ‘Oh yeah, I failed that one too,’ ” says the 23-year-old student at Montreal’s Concordia University. “It made me feel so much better knowing everybody else was in the same shoes.” She finally passed that exam and now has several more to go for an actuarial credential.
There is no limit to how many times a candidate can take the tests. It took one man 50 years to become a Fellow, says Stuart Klugman, an official at the society. The society says a candidate typically takes seven to 10 years to become a Fellow. They must pass 10 exams plus other coursework and requirements.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Saw that scene in the movie The Accountant.
—”You can keep warm for almost a whole night with a good lump of coal.”
It was NOT a generous size lump.
So I looked it up. Coal has ~12,000Btu /pound!
Surprising. Could be 1,000 Btu, but probably lose over half in venting the fumes/smoke.
Still in a well-insulated space several hours of warmth.
The payoff for year 1 and year 2 isn't based on a point estimate, but the cumulative probability of failure in years 1 and 2.
The cumulative probability in year X is 1-exp(-(L*X)).
The correct probabilities for years 1 and 2 are 0.3935 and 0.2387. The key to getting the probability for year 2 is to subtract the year 1 probability from the cumulative probability where X=2.
Sum the $78.69 year 1 payoff ($200*0.3935) and the $23.87 year 2 payoff ($100*0.2387) and multiply by 100 and get $10,256....D.
WHy are people such babies nowadays? An article about how they got their feelings hurt when they failed a test? All i can do is shake my head. This country is circling the drain thanks to woke effeminates.
Those exams are really tough and it takes 5-10 years to get through them all if you are at the level to get through them. I do not know why someone would get particularly upset over failing one.
with a mean life of 2 years?
Printers have it tough these days and get no respect!
Sadly it makes your food taste like coal if you do not have a well sealed oven.
Peck being a handful?
Two cups to a pint, two pints to a quart, four quarts to a gallon, two gallons to a peck, four pecks to a bushel.
(A) $6,321
(B) $7,358
(C) $7,869
(D) $10,256
(E) $12,642
The answer is (D).
F(1) = .393
F(2) = .632
So (0.393 x $200) + (0.632 - 0.393) x 100 = $102.50 refund per printer.
Times 100 printers = $10,250.
I am an actuary, by the way, so I will be very embarrassed if I made a mistake here.
There is a limit to how creative you can get with accounting. However, actuaries deal with accounting for things that have not happened yet. So you can make adjustments and make the figures come out any which way. Then you have be able to argue to support what you did and make sure it is really what is good for the company etc. So it is pretty tricky. The exams are not BS at all, but the work involves some. That is what I know based on my limited experience, as I was not suited to it.
Thank you for keeping me to my old addage, “ You learn something new every.”
I sell apples and other produce in the summer. And yes, we still use pecks and bushels.
My friend Bernie is a retired actuary. And while he despises what he terms "small talk", he IS very funny. He loves puns. When I am at their table sharing a meal (at least, pre-COVID), Bernie and I pun each other like a Wimbledon match: PUN, counter-PUN, PUN, etc. Other guests at the meal have stared at us, at times. We was just having FUN.
My son has a masters in Statistics and works for an insurance company, and has taken several of these Actuary tests. He is on his fifth or sixth installment, and this past November for the first time he failed the test.
He retakes it in April.
I am an actuary (FSA 1982) who retired almost 5 years ago who has worked in the field for 43 years. I would have gotten this question easily at the time that I took the test which would have been the Probability and Statistics (Test Number 2) which I passed in Nov 1973. In all of my work I have not needed to perform this type of calculation. Ao not having seen this for 48 years, I did not attempt to solve it. I am sure that I would have been able to do this if I had referenced my Part 2 Book. So I asked my son who is a post-doc PhD, intending on becoming a professor. He was able to come up with the formula in his head and he then put the formula in something that calculates a formula with e (also noted as exp as per DoodleBob) to get the correct answer.
For Mr.Unique and Captain Walker-There are a set of Math Phds such as my son who are committed to math and are involved in math that I would have had no clue about, even in my prime.
So you and DoodleBob did get the correct answer. The mathematical explanation is as follows: “An exponential random variable with mean 2 has a probabilty density function given by (1/2)*e^(-x/2). Therefore, the probabilty that the printer lasts less than 1 year is the integral of this function from 0 to 1 which is 1-e^(-1/2). By self similarity of the eexponential random variable, the probabilty that a printer lasts between 1 and 2 years is the same value multiplied by e^(-1/2). Hence, our answer because we sell 100 printers is
100*{200*(1-e^(-1/2))+100*(e^(-1/2)-e^(-1))}
For those inclined to check e= 2.718281828459... and * means multiplication and ^means exponent (i.e 2^3 is 2 cubed or 8)
Some other thoughts on comments made on this thread (who I did not specifically tag in the names in my reply). The actuarial is a great profession and has provided me with a fine career. In fact, the Actuarial profession is rated among the top professions. There was a time when it was rated as the number 1 profession. When I first started my career, most people were not familiar with the actuarial profession but it has come in prominence particularly with regard to Social Security and Health Care. The Actuarial career has set me up for my greatest position which is retirement. I do not miss the working world one bit as my time is largely my own and I am never bored. I wish you luck and much happiness in your career as an actuary.
One last comment, I appreciate your tag line - particularly from an actuary.
I am an FCAS 1990 still working.
You forgot the gill.
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