There’s one key problem with your analysis: The present 8th and pre-2012 8th are not the same district or areas. The 2003-2013 8th was located in the SE corner of the state, centered on Tucson and Cochise County. That district became the 2nd beginning in 2013 and sends Martha McSally.
The current 8th was within the pre-2012 2nd (which was considerably chopped up) and centered on NW Phoenix and all of Mohave County on the NV & UT borders, so the NW corner of the state, and extended eastward to take in the Hopi Reservation. Only the NW Phoenix area remained in the “new” 8th, with the rest distributed to other districts, mostly the 4th and 1st.
As you know, AZ’s “Independent” redistricting board is leftist and drew the delegation to be 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans for the 2012 elections. McSally’s victory in 2014 turned that to a 5R-4D delegation. Were Republicans in charge of redistricting, as the legislature SHOULD be, this would be a 7R-2D state, and those two other RED Democrats (O’Halleran in the 1st and SINema in the 8th) would be gone, leaving just the ultraradicals Grijalva and Gallego.
Ugh yeah, one reason I hate why they change district number is it can confuse people, even Proffessors! :0)
Barber was ousted in 2014, very narrowly, by MCSALLY, he had “beaten’ her by less than a point in 2012.
Franks (first elected in 2002 not 2012) never had in a close race in his seat which IS typically “red” under both the 2002 and 2012 lines and is carried by wide margins by GOP Presidential candidates, I can’t say this wasn’t a deal closer than you’d want.
I’m not overly worried about these close special elections though (and lost state leg seats) Dems are very motivated for them but if GOP turnout is normal in November they won’t touch districts like this.
Connor Lambchop ran as a no-Pelosi DINO and “won” by a small margin in a district that won’t exist next year, big deal, he’s 50/50 to remain running in a close district but against a GOP incumbent.
Moore losing was a huge deal cause the Senate is close and that’s for 4 years but it wasn’t because of any party weakness but an atrocious candidate with foot in mouth disease. Senator Fag-lover McBabykiller will be out on his *ss in 2020 as Trump beats whoever by over 20 points there.
The one House special in close district, in GA, was a dogfight that we WON.
The lost state leg seats displease me but they were all very light turnout. You aren’t gonna have 10% turnout in the midterms and that means rats won’t touch “red” districts.