Scientists Narrow Down When China's Falling Space Station Will Burn Up in the Atmosphere

popularmechanics ^ | Mar 20, 2018 | By Avery Thompson

[BenLurkin]

As the station continues to drop ever lower in its orbit, it becomes easier to predict its reentry date. In early March scientists knew enough to pinpoint the reentry date at somewhere near the end of the month, and now better data has given us an even more accurate estimate: March 31, plus or minus a few days.

But if predicting when Tiangong-1 will come down is hard, predicting where it will reenter is pretty much impossible. The station orbits the Earth several times per day, which means even a few minutes is enough time to bring the station over a completely different part of the planet. In effect, this means we won’t know where the station is going to come down even right before it happens.

Fortunately there’s almost no chance that any part of the station will reach the ground and even if some parts of the station don’t completely burn up in the atmosphere, most of the Earth is ocean. There’s an extremely small chance a single piece of the satellite will ever hit land, let alone you specifically.

However, if Tiangong-1 does enter the atmosphere near you, it will produce a pretty spectacular fireball. It might be worth keeping an eye on the status of the space station over the next few weeks, on the off chance that it comes down over your head. It won’t hurt, but it should be a pretty amazing show.

[wbill]

Well, the last FR article I saw on this, predicted "Sometime in the next four months" it would hit "The Earth, somewhere".

Hopefully, this article is a bit more specific.

[Red Badger]

plus or minus a few days.......................

[BraveMan]

http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=37820U

[RightGeek]

[G Larry]

Al Gore is predicting it will Fall UP, due to Global Warming.....

[ButThreeLeftsDo]

Thanks!

Bookmarked.

[Red Badger]

According to that, it’s gonna be right over my house!.....................

[Mouton]

Good thing it is not an incoming missile.

[Reno89519]

Curious they are so sure it will burn up before hitting the ground. Would those authors feel so confident and comfortable if they knew with certainty that they were in the direct path? Bet not. They then offer reassurance that the earth is mostly water so like gambling, the odds are against it landing on you.

Too bad we have a rain river or whatever they are calling it coming through Reno area this week so we won't see the falling satellite coming.

[BraveMan]

Wear safety glasses when you look up!

[BenLurkin]

[Calvin Locke]

Last I heard, well, read, that it's more likely to come down in MI, than any place else within its orbit/trajectory.

So, if the average spot is 1/billion, that may mean that MI is 2/billion, leaving billion-2/billion much more likely...

...I think...

[stars & stripes forever]

If it lands in Lake Michigan, will it poison the water supply?

[Reno89519]

Too bad this didn’t happen 8-12 weeks ago, we’d have had a very different winter here in the Reno-Tahoe area. Right now have what is basically our first real snow fall of the year, yet now it is over 50 degrees out.

[Carl Vehse]

"There’s an extremely small chance a single piece of the satellite will ever hit land, let alone you specifically."

Is there a way to increase the chance that a piece of the satellite will fall on a Demonicrat politician or Deep Stater?

[southland]

Bookmark

[9422WMR]

Donnie Darko?

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

If they can launch a satellite that will rendezvous with Saturn 8 years after launch, they certainly are able to determine when and where this Chinese orbiting toilet will hit.

They're just not saying.

[butlerweave]

Call Airbus ,maybe they can Harpoon it ,LOL