Posted on 03/19/2018 8:25:54 AM PDT by Rebelbase
There’s a lot of evidence mounting that solar cycle 25 will usher in a new grand solar minimum. Since about October 2005, when the sun’s magnetic activity went into a sharp fall, solar activity has been markedly lower, with solar cycle 24 being the lowest in over 100 years.
Interplanetary magnetic field – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar cycle 24 – Image from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Last day shown: 28 February 2018. Last diagram update: 1 March 2018. (Credit climate4you.com)
Meteorologist Paul Dorian at Vencore weather writes:
"All indications are that the upcoming solar minimum which is expected to begin in 2019 may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century."
Some scientists are even saying that we are on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum, and the upcoming cycle 25 may have even lower cycles after it.
"This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward Grand (Super) Minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450)."
Simon Constable, in Forbes writes:
The question is whether we will enter another grand solar minimum just like the Maunder minimum which, if history is a guide, would mean a period of much colder weather winters and summers.
Once upon a time, people would worship the sun as a deity. It was with good reason that they did so for the sun provided much of what sustains life on our small planet, warmth and bountiful harvests. How would we survive if the sun stopped beating down on us? It was a real fear.
Then came science and industrialization. As the new era took over, we mostly forgot the sun and its importance to our existence. (Of course, most people occasionally complain that it is either too sunny or not sunny enough.)
But just because we stopped paying close attention doesn’t mean that it lost any of its importance to our world. And neither does the fact that the life of the sun is far more complex than many people realize. Indeed, if we are to believe the experts,the sun’s behavior is about to change in a way that could have dramatic consequences for the food we eat and the broader economy.
That’s why it is rather handy that an important book on the matter was recently published in paperback. Nature’s Third Cycle: A Story of Sunspots by Arnab Rai Choudhuri.
The third cycle is that of the Sun and the dark spots which appear on the solar surface. The first two cycles are day versus night and the changing seasons.
Choudhuri gives us a condensed history of the study of the sun and of sunspots over the past few centuries back to Galileo Gailiei, whose discovery of the Sun’s 27-day rotation marked the serious start of solar physics.
The remarkable tale includes skilled amateurs as well as professional academics, the rivalries between the main players, and a probable husband-wife murder-suicide thrown into the mix. Yes, there is a lot in the story of studying the sun, and the author does a masterful job of making it a fascinating read. Not too shabby when many scientific books do more to muddle the reader than to enlighten.
The names which might be familiar include the following: space observatory pioneer George Ellery Hale; discoverer of Uranus William Herschel; and astronomer Edward Maunder. It was the last of those men who identified a period from about 1640 through 1715 when the spots on the Sun disappeared. Usually, the number of dark blemishes on the solar surface tends to rise and fall in somewhat predictable 11-year cycles.
The period when the spots vanished, a so-called grand solar minimum, also coincided with a sort of mini-ice age with harsh winters and short cool summers. It became known as the Maunder minimum after the man who studied it.
Of course, the idea that the temperature of the earth could be changed by mysterious fluctuating dark patterns on the sun’s surface is nothing if not controversial. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t true, as the author states:
"[…] the earth indeed becomes cooler when sunspots go missing. Exactly how this happens is still a question on which experts seem to have very differing views and which is unlikely to be settled definitively in the near future."
Choudhuri takes pains to add that none of this negates the effect of industrialization on climate change. They are both critical factors.
However, the whole matter is complicated by the fact that while the world was warming up in the 20th century the number of sunspots were above their average count. Remember, other things being equal, more spots means warmer earth temperatures.
When the book was published in hardback in 2015, the author was reluctant to forecast the likely outcome of the current sunspot cycle.
But what has become more apparent based on more recent research from NASA is that we are now in a period of very few or no sunspots. This has coincided with the brutal winter we are going through now.
The question is whether we will enter another grand solar minimum just like the Maunder minimum which if history is a guide would mean a period of much colder weather winters and summers. More than a few experts with whom I speak regularly believe that we shall enter such a grand minimum along with the resulting bone-chilling weather.
If that happens, then there will be profound influences on the economy, including possible crop failures and rising energy use for home and workplace heating. Or in other words, expect bigger bills for food and energy. After a period in which the supply of both has been increasingly abundant then this change will likely come as a shock to many people and likely the broader global economy as well.
I remember one KY Derby Day (first Saturday in May), when I went to an outside derby party...it snowed about two inches and later on, it hit about 70 and a thunderstorm.
Weather be weird. This was around the late 80s, so I don’t know what phase the sun was in.
The early Spanish explorers planted the first orange trees around St. Augustine, Florida, sometime between 1513 and 1565.
By the 1800’s citrus trees could be found growing wild throughout North Florida. By 1893 over five million boxes were being produced. Producing orange groves were found throughout north Florida and the panhandle. Orange Lake near Ocala was a major production area.
In 1894-95 there was a massive freeze including blizzards in December 1894 and February 1895. As a result production dropped to 147 thousand, and growers started their move southward down the peninsula. In 1899 there was another February blizzard in Florida.
Further freezes in 1934, 1962, 1977 caused the citrus industry to move further and further down the peninsula.
So when Al Gore was proclaiming “Global Warming”, to my thoughts were that he had spent too much time being raised in that hotel in DC, and had no idea what weather is.
Now they cry “Climate Change”, and all I can think is he’s making money on the deal, especially the Carbon Credit scam.
Someone needs to list where all the carbon credit money ends up. gore probably get some of it. What other politician receives the money?
Aw, dang. Get ready for new MSM narrative. Either we’re heading for a new ice age, like we were in 1977-78, or the sun’s burning out and we have to throw a planet in it or something.
Thanks for posting. I’ve been following this for awhile, with great interest.
I hope NOT! I hate cold weather!
One of the best books I have ever read is A Land Remembered
It's a yarn about a family of true Florida Crackers settling the wilderness of Florida written in the theme of Lonesome Dove crossed with a James Mitchner novel.
There's a detailed section about the killing freeze you mentioned and the havoc it wreaked on Florida farmers and orange growers.
OTHER planets, such as Mars, had been showing signs of “global warming” during the 1990s and early 2000s. I suspect, if anyone cared to look now, they would see signs of “global cooling”.
Africa and India hardest hit
Bookmark
Bookmark
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/3/6
Above is a link to a graph with the number of sunspots. 1862 seemed to be about normal. The year 1867 was low sunspots. I think one needs to look at the overall trends though over 5 to 10 years - not just a single year’s number.
I’m not sure if the results are “equalized” across the years to take into account the better optics used in modern times. Although to see sunspots, whatever the astronomers had in 1860 was probably still good enough to see all of the sunspots.
thx
But hey, even more ice in the Arctic for the increased polar bear population. It must suck to be you and so wrong. How'd that sequel go? Grossed 100 bucks yet?
‘mysterious fluctuating dark patterns on the sun’s surface is nothing if not controversial.’ I am beginning to think when the word controversy or controversial is mentioned it means the journalist has no common sense. All that is controversial is that common sense is ignored.
Most of growers fall somewhere in the middle so they are up a creek.
Building a frame that can hold shade cloth to protect the trees is on the list at Casa de Oso. If they are covered and you put some source of heat inside you can usually keep your trees safe.
Thank you.
I remember my grandmother reading one of Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings’ books, because it described how many people lived in North Central Florida in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
She grew up on a farm near Salem, Florida, which is south of Perry.
So are GMOs. And some people scream about a danger from them.
I just farted.
Is that on the chart?
WUWT is a great site for the real info on “Global (non) Warming.” I read it most every day. Very good, very sciency, and funny a hell, too. Comments can be lol funny.
Uranus has nothing to do with sun spots.
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