Replies

I think the triggering event would be the test flight demonstrating that the entire nuclear weapon system development cycle had been completed. That is, launch of a long range missile on an attack trajectory (even if depressed/shortened) followed by release and controlled reentry of a simulated warhead somewhere in the eastern Pacific Ocean. At that point, North Korea will have forged the weapon needed to deliver on its threats to the US, South Korea, Japan, etc. and simultaneously liberated itself from dependence on the PRC and Russian nuclear umbrellas for protection.

The ultimate goal of Juche will have been achieved.

As for the response to the trigger event, I think the Chinese (and possibly the Russians) will invade North Korea. They will strike suddenly and violently with the intent to depose the Kim regime, sieze and dismantle the entirety of the nuclear weapons program, and bundle all the associated program equipment, materials, associated records and key personnel off into the interior of China for “safekeeping.”

They will do this not out of any great love for the United States but because they don’t want a war possibly involving the delivery of nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula to break out. They also don’t want a nuclear arms race developing with two very capable adversaries, South Korea and Japan. They also don’t want east Asia to become saturated with effective ABM systems including their farseeing radars. Finally, if North Korea were to be attacked by the United States or its East Asian allies, it will probably trigger mutual defense agreements they have with their Korean War ally to come to its defense.

If they move in very quickly and execute decisively, they can forestall all these possibilities.

There are, of course, some pretty significant downsides to this course of action. The first is the absolute need to find and secure all North Korean nuclear weapons. The second is defeating the 1 million strong DPRK army or at least getting it to stand aside/down, The third is keeping the population of North Korea inside North Korea and the basic administrative structure intact enough so that the country can function.

Second only to securing the nuclear weapons, it is also utmost necessity to find and eliminate the Kim family and all their core supporters. They have been the guiding hand and driving force behind this effort for 3 generations. Their leader cult approaches divinity and that plus the momentum of past decisions has compelled them to follow this course to its conclusion. In order to break this cycle, you must break them.

Then, maybe, the North Korean people will be delivered from their nightmare.