[Future Useless Eater]

I have not studied the memo in much detail yet, so I don't have an opinion yet either, if it is legitimate.

But the memo WAS saved to Scribd by whoever leaked it. HERE

Someone did a lousy job of blacking out who this was sent FROM

When I SELECT the text, including the blacked-out area, then PASTE that into NOTEPAD, or any other text editor, it shows who it was SENT From: NATE SILVER.

Monmouth University Poll
West Long Branch, NJ 07764
__________________________________________________________________
From: Nate Sliver
To: PATRICK MURRAY [ EYES ONLY ]
 
Subject: Change the Narrative 
Friday, September 16, 2016
Priority Message 
Do Not Copy 
Secure Email / Slack Only


NET MESSAGE: HILLARY-RESURGENCE

Key Notes:
 * Birtherism – “Backfiring”
 * Trump Unfavorables – “Climbing”
 * Minority Voices – “support Hillary”
 * Imply Racism (White Vote = Trump) – “Whites rally/cleave/etc. Trump”
 * Rubio / Murphy: Poll Accurately [ IMMATERIAL ]

SCREENS

AGE: Attached screens will move 80% of targets into the 30-50 age range. Use included statistical model to re-skew for publication.

LOCATION: The location-call screens will favor south Tallahassee, east and north Gainesville, Central Tampa, north and west Jacksonville, west and south Orlando, and much of Dade / Broward counties. Space Coast regions and similar must be carefully screened for demographic.

DEMOGRAPHIC: This should be obvious. We are looking at a heavy minority foundation with a college-white salt. Favored are liberal arts degrees and, especially, sociology. See attached call-files.

EMPLOYMENT: We prefer polling areas of high unemployment for minority response. More are available to take calls during working hours and far, far fewer of them support Republican candidates.

EMBEDED NARRATIVE It is imperative to create a morale boosting narrative in the liberal demographics. Our last published polling note gave liberals a “week before panic.” We must deliver on a turn-around in polls or risk collapse of enthusiasm. The data from our call / email sieve as well as legitimate polling indicates a level of despondency equivalent, roughly, to the Michael Dukakis candidacy. This is due to (a) Trump’s successful presidential-narrative surge and (b) a massive lack of enthusiasm on the part of minority and millennial voters who are beginning to view Obama as a failed president and Hillary Clinton as a ‘lying harpy.’ (word association testing focus groups). In order to rally the male-liberal base we will need to produce “resurgent” Florida polling. The conventional wisdom is that Florida will be the fulcrum state for the election and if it is seen as lost to Trump then we will have domino defections throughout the other swing-states. Presently, our internal analysis shows the Democratic Firewall in extreme jeopardy. This week the news cycle MUST show Hillary regaining the lead in Florida.

STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, & THREATS

Strengths

Almost none. The voter-registrations in Florida are balanced but we need to have at least D+3 to have a credible story. We also need to greatly oversample women. This shouldn’t be hard to manage as they are more likely to answer the phone and chat. Liberal self-reporters are tanking (around 12% in real numbers). We are going to have it at around 30% which we can probably get away with. Below are the target demographics our screens should produce with minimal manual intervention.

......SEE SCRIBD for the remainder of this memo
SEVERAL FReepers should save this memo to your computer.

[Red Steel]

Well, that little snot Nate Silver shows up again.

[Red Steel]

Well, that little snot Nate Silver shows up again.

[conservativepoet]

Getting more interesting all the time.

[Chaguito]

Nate SLIVER? Now I know it’s fake.

The idiotic “black out” delays in loading, making Nate Sliver’s name visible for a fraction of a second, and of course disappears upon cut-and-paste.

Sliver’s name is misspelled in order to avoid a defamation lawsuit.

This is a plant to make Trump voters look stupid.

[LucyT]

Leaked Monmouth U. polling memo: Democrats ‘despondent’; Hillary..., seen as a ‘lying harpy’

A lying harpy? Really? Say it isn't so. /s

Check out # 54 .

Thanks, Future Useless Eater.

[Red Steel]

Hahaa. Panties in a wad.

- - - - -

“Threats

People are leaking a lot . If you don’t want Enten’s gang all over you, we suggest you lock it the f@#&# down. There are a lot of people poking around the edges that are on to things and a bunch of stuff out on the Internet that is more hit-than-miss. PPP’s extremely unwise decision not to disavow the leaks on Twitter has costs us a great deal of credibility and voters are a lot more educated about cross-tabs and skewing and we may not have as easy a time of it as we did in 2012.

Finally, we know you consider Quinnipiac a “rival school.” Put that aside and stand down your hackers and arson-units. This is a team effort. If we lose this election we’re all f*#@*!d. Ensure loyalty in your staff by whatever means necessary. Keep appearances up. DO NOT SCREW THIS UP”

- - - -

So PPP didn’t “disavow leaks” reported on Twitter. Wonder what that was?

[MountainWalker]

There’s no one who wants Trump to win more than me, but I’m just really dubious that this is a hoax. If it helps keep the good guys’ sanity in check the next several weeks until more favorable polling rolls in, I’ll take it. But, I still have the scars from questioning the veracity of polls in 2012.

[Nifster]

Interesting

[mrsmith]

It’s a fake.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi9hPXu3sfPAhUEPiYKHQ1zCqkQFggtMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffreerepublic.com%2Ffocus%2Ff-news%2F3471934%2Fposts&usg=AFQjCNEeLjVuYtJuqFXtJsVeHWdct7v6cw&bvm=bv.134495766,d.eWE

TWITTER: Leaked Email - Monmouth Rigged It’s Poll ... - Free Republic
freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3471934/posts
Free Republic
Sep 21, 2016 - 51 posts - 45 authors
Fake/Untrue things can still have a negative impact on Monmouth, Hillary, .... The Director of Polling at Monmouth is named Patrick Murray for ...

[grey_whiskers]

Monmouth University Poll
West Long Branch, NJ 07764
__________________________________________________________________
From: Nate Sliver
To: PATRICK MURRAY [ EYES ONLY ]
Subject: Change the Narrative
Friday, September 16, 2016
Priority Message
Do Not Copy
Secure Email / Slack Only <---HA HA! "Secure" email concerning Hillary, get it? Proof that this is fake. ;-)

[Voluntaryist]

Thanks for the ping!
I really enjoy reading your thoughts on all things related to polls. As for this “memo”, I’m kinda in the middle as it’s tough to prove or disprove empirically, but I do agree with other posters here that there’s literally nothing that could make Trump supporters look any more stupid than Hillary supporters.

The media has and continues to hoax about SO MUCH BS, that this could never overshadow the nonsense they pull in terms of backfire potential.

[GOPJ]

TIM KAINE SHOCK VIDEO 7: ...Candidate Tim Kaine twice brags about firing 5000 people (14:30 & 16:30) https://t.co/uvrcCCehRr

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

Wow.

[Chewbarkah]

That it’s From Nate Sliver, (not Nate Silver) is the giveaway that this document is fake.

Whoever created it knew their inside baseball pretty well.

[Pollster1]

When I SELECT the text, including the blacked-out area, then PASTE that into NOTEPAD, or any other text editor, it shows who it was SENT From: NATE SILVER.

Warning, this may be a bad fake. The text shows "Nate Sliver". I would expect the real Nate Silver to spell his own name correctly.

[fwdude]

When/if she loses, I hope she “follows” Vince Foster’s lead. I know that sounds harsh, but she is utterly wicked and a sworn enemy of everything this country was founded upon.

[KC_Conspirator]

No offense, but this almost seems like BS. The language sounds like the fake memos from Dan Rather.

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Hmmm . . .