An economist boasted about the last five years' economic recovery.

Federal government agencies | August 25, 2016

[WilliamofCarmichael]

but there was no reference to the federal government data I'm posting. My simple colors and symbols are superimposed on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' data to show a crude "graph" of the economic recovery. Hover to see the table numbers. Funny thing though it disappears when you include the Reagan, et al. years (shown at link).

[WilliamofCarmichael]

The other day on the Hannity radio show I heard a fan of Obama's employed by a university as an "economist" boast about the last five years.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has dozens of national income and product accounts (NIPA) tables. See below for links to the tables.

"The contributions to percent change in a real aggregate, such as real GDP, provide a measure of the composition of growth in the aggregate . . . contributions to percent change [is] a valuable tool for economic analysis."

Table 1.5.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product, Expanded Detail (both annual and quarterly)

My recollection of 1950s, 60, 70s and 80s business cycles is a downturn followed by a recovery that expands the economy to the biggest yet. More jobs more everything. I must point out that we are not likely to see WWII's 19-percent GDP increases. My simple colors and symbols are superimposed on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' national income and product accounts (NIPA) Table 1.5.2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product, Expanded Detail (annual data 1969 - 2015 plus Table 1.5.2 quarterly data annualized for 2016).

Hover to see the table numbers.

The result is a crude "graph" that shows the relations among the years and highlights the pattern of a recovery. I will post it below.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

In this posting you can see a pattern of recovery but only because this posting is for Obama years only.

Go here to see that there is no Obama pattern of recovery with the Reagan, et al. years included. You can also see that the problem existed before Obama.

White with a ♦ means first year. White with a ♥ means the best year immediately following the first year; can also mean best year immediately following a blue with a ♥.

Blue with a ♥ means the best year since a downturn and has to also be the best year since the beginning.

Red with • means worst year yet. Red with a ♦ means fluctuations somewhere between best and worst years.

The sum of columns 02, 26, 45, and 52 should equal GDP rounded to one decimal. Use hover to see data. For example
1986 is 2.63 + 0.03 -0.29 + 1.14 = 3.5 Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
2014 is 1.95 + 0.73 -0.15 -0.16 = 2.4 Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product

0 0
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0 0

Year
2009
2010
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2015
2016
Year

0 1
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1 0
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2 0
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3 0
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•
6 2

Again go here to see that there is no Obama pattern of recovery with the Reagan, et al. years included. You can also see that the problem existed before Obama.

the path to the NIPA tables

• US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)Gross Domestic Product (GDP)^*
• click on
  • "Interactive Tables: GDP and the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) Historical Tables"; that page should be
  • National Data GDP & Personal Income;
  • click on "Begin using the data"; that page should be
  • National Data National Income and Product Accounts Tables; click on Advanced Download Section; that page should be
  • Download NIPA Tables and it is where you can download series of tables.

    I downloaded 1969 to present All Sections -- however Table 1.5.2 is in Section 1.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Funny. In medicine, a ‘recovery’ like this one would be more aptly labeled a chronic disease.