What do you believe the response would be, in the event of a launch detection, of a ballistic track intercepting a carrier group? Those in command will defend their assets.
It doesn’t have to track a carrier group, that’s the point. A launch can happen, and the ballistic arc doesn’t have to look like it intercepts the carrier group.
MIRV head launches, course corrects, and drops its cargo. The MIRV head disappears from RADAR when it explodes right after dropping the cargo (or it continues on its merry way, well-overshooting the carrier group and thus looking like a “missed shot”).
The problem is that, with an ICBM, when it’s on its way up or near the apex, there is literally a 5000 mile radius of targets it could hit. It’s up there - but what will it target? It’s not like a lobbed shell from a Howitzer, it’s more like a cruise missile. You know it’s coming in your general direction, but that’s because it could strike anywhere along a thousand mile border. Is it really coming to you, is it really going to strike?
Assume it is determined that it’s been fired up, and will come down on the carrier group. There’s not a chance the carrier and most of its escorts could get out of the way. Even at 50 knots - you have about 2 minutes from the time you determine it’s coming at you to the time it strikes. Carriers aren’t that nimble, they would get whacked.
Now, I guess you could argue that we could nuke them - but would that actually happen, would that actually be warranted given the attack that just shredded a carrier group was done with conventional weapons? I would say the chance of a nuclear retaliation would be somewhere around 0%. No we would retaliate with conventional weapons and demolish their carrier groups as well. But that’s not going to stop their ability to deny us the seas.
Huge strides in computing power, guidance technology, and optics and positioning have changed the game. You can drop “dumb” bombs that guide themselves through windows. Dropping dumb rods from the sky that will strike targets the size of a car is not that hard (heck, we have commercial outfits landing reusable rockets back on floating vessels).
And with the speed offered from the gravity well of the Earth - no explosives needed. If you miss, then it’s a rod of tungsten and steel on the ocean floor. If you hit - good bye to anything it intercepts. Liberally sprinkle a few hundred rods at 200 foot spacings and you will deny an area a half mile on a side to essentially any aircraft carrier - and nearly any destroyer.
Getting things into low orbit via ICBM has changed the game dramatically. You still need aircraft and big guns for the 2nd/3rd world opponents, but for 1st world opponents like Russia and China - it’s space based weapons that will determine who wins and loses. And by securing that high ground (space), you can deny the low ground to just about anything. Don’t like what’s down there? Just drop something pointy and heavy and let gravity do the rest.