Nate Silver says “ I’m thinking Trump has close to 775 delegates already.”
If Trump wins Wisconsin its over. Lots of libs there, Rinse Prius and Gov. Walker don’t want Trump, its going to be interesting if they want to tick him off and risk their own future in the party. They are both relatively young and have a lot to lose if Trump becomes President.
If anyone but Cruz wins another 180 delegates , its over for the Math for Cruz.
So I am thinking this ends for Cruz for sure on Apr. 26 when Trump favorable states CT, DE, MD, PA, RI equals 172 delegates up for grabs. Plus NY’s 95 is a total of 267 so if Silver is right and Trump wins 200 of them Trump is at 975 or better.
At that point there will be 504 plus the Wisconsin delegates to get and a lot of them are Trump leaning. When Cruz can no longer win on first ballot, I believe Trump will have several “walkover” states because even die hard Cruz guys will lose hope in their guy.
I can see Trump getting over 1300 delegates by the convention and that is being conservative.
After Belgium terrorist attack, I think the case for Trump is better than ever, because he makes the best case for protecting Americans by far of anyone in either party..
Time for Teddy to stop the wishful thinking and reject endorsements for the establishment, these endorsements make him a sellout and an instant insider.
Where’d Nate Silver say that?
Your post was an excellent read!
|
Date
|
State
|
D Del.
|
R Del.
|
Type
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Mar 26 | Alaska Caucus (D) | 20 | Closed | ||
| Sat, Mar 26 | Hawaii Caucus (D) | 34 | Closed | ||
| Sat, Mar 26 | Washington Caucus (D) | 118 | Closed | ||
| Tue, Apr 5 | Wisconsin | 96 | 42 (WTA) | Open | |
| Sat, Apr 9 | Wyoming Caucus (D) | 18 | Closed | ||
| Tue, Apr 19 | New York | 291 | 95 (P) | Closed | |
| Tue, Apr 26 | Connecticut | 70 | 28 (P) | Closed | |
| Tue, Apr 26 | Delaware | 31 | 16 (WTA) | Closed | |
| Tue, Apr 26 | Maryland | 118 | 38 (WTA) | Closed | |
| Tue, Apr 26 | Pennsylvania | 210 | 71 (P, WTA) | Closed | |
| Tue, Apr 26 | Rhode Island | 33 | 19 (P) | Mixed | |
| Tue, May 3 | Indiana | 92 | 57 (WTA) | Open | |
| Sat, May 7 | Guam (D) | 12 | Closed | ||
| Tue, May 10 | Nebraska (R) | 36 | Closed | ||
| Tue, May 10 | West Virginia | 34 | 37 | Mixed | |
| Tue, May 17 | Kentucky (D) | 61 | Closed | ||
| Tue, May 17 | Oregon | 73 | 28 (P) | Closed | |
| Tue, May 24 | Washington (R)* | 44 (P) | Closed | ||
| Sat, Jun 4 | Virgin Islands Caucus (D) | 12 | Open | ||
| Sun, Jun 5 | Puerto Rico Caucus (D) | 67 | Open | ||
| Tue, Jun 7 | California | 546 | 172 (P) | Mixed | |
| Tue, Jun 7 | Montana | 27 | 27 (WTA) | Open | |
| Tue, Jun 7 | New Jersey | 142 | 51 (WTA) | Closed | |
| Tue, Jun 7 | New Mexico | 43 | 24 (P) | Closed | |
| Tue, Jun 7 | North Dakota Caucus (D) | 23 | Closed | ||
| Tue, Jun 7 | South Dakota | 25 | 29 (WTA) | Closed | |
| Tue, Jun 14 | District of Columbia (D) | 46 | Closed |
Allocation – All Democratic primary/caucus delegates are proportionally allocated. Republican primaries/caucuses are listed as Proportional (P), Winner-Take-All (WTA), or Winner-Take-Most (WTM).
Proportional – Delegates are awarded based on the percentage of the vote received by candidates, or some formulation of dividing up the delegates
Winner Take All – All delegates are given to the winner of the contest
Winner Take Most – Some delegates are reserved for the winner, some may be divided proportionally
Unbound – Delegates are not bound to a specific candidate and can support any candidate of their choosing, varies by state party
Type
Open– Voters may vote in either party primary but can choose only one
Closed – Only voters registered in their respective party may vote in the party primary
Mixed – A semi-open or semi-closed environment, unaffiliated voters can choose to vote in either primary or can switch registration the day of voting
However, an upset in Wisconsin will substitute for the loss of Arizona.
I'm predicting that Ted Cruz will win four more states: Both Dakotas, Nebraska and Montana. More than enough for a strong second place finish but not good enough to deny Trump a majority of the delegates going into the convention.
One of the big questions now is how much money Cruz has left. He doesn’t seem to have much now, and his donors, aren’t stupid. They will eventually concede Trump and fund congressional candidates that may put up a fight againt Trump.
Yes, there are lots of libs here in Wisconsin, but they are confined to the city of Milwaukee and the People's Republic of Madistan (Madison). The western edge and North Woods of Wisconsin swing moderate. But the more populous eastern and central portion of the state are very conservative.
The Republican Party in Wisconsin itself is extremely conservative. As such, Trump will NOT win Wisconsin. Trump will be lucky to crack 20%.
As for Scott Walker, I predict Walker will endorse ted Cruz tonight at Insight 2016, an annual event hosted by WTMJ-AM 620's Charlie Sykes - a local Milwaukee radio conservative talker.
The live 3-hour event (taped for radio broadcast on Friday) features appearances by Milwaukee-area, state and federal Wisconsin Republican politicians including Sen. Ron Johnson, House Speaker Paul Ryan, Reps. Glenn Grothmann & Jim Sensenbrenner, Gov. Scott Walker, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, State Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley and Milwaukee mayoral candidate Alderman Bob Donovan. Yesterday, Sykes announced the appearance of presidentail candidate US Sen. Ted Cruz. Tickets for the program sold out almost immediately after the Cruz announcement.
It is in this setting in front of several thousand conservative attendees, Gov. Scott Walker will announce his presidential endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz in advance of next Tuesday's Wisconsin April 5th primary.
Nate guessed wrong. Trump has 738.