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An Issue With the Republican Iowa Caucuses: What were the real vote totals?
Reflection ^ | 3 Feb 16 | Xzins

Posted on 02/03/2016 5:45:03 AM PST by xzins

1. Wikipedia says: "The Iowa Caucus[1] is an electoral event in which residents of the U.S. state of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in all of Iowa's 1,681 precincts and elect delegates to the corresponding county conventions."

2. Ted Cruz's ground game was said to be massive and the explanation for his victory. He had workers at all precincts.

3. Ted Cruz apologized for his workers spreading misinformation about Ben Carson dropping out of the race. Carson says this misinformation affected vote totals.

4. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/cnsnewscom-staff/iowa-cruz-278-trump-244-rubio-229-carson-93-paul-45

Cruz had 51,416--or 27.7 percent--of the votes.

Trump was second with 45,245 or 24.3 percent of the votes.

Rubio was third with 42,863 or 23.1 percent of the votes.

Dr. Ben Carson was fourth with 17,321 or 9.3 percent of the votes.

5. If each precinct has a caucus and there are 1681 precincts, as stated by point #1, then one vote lost per precinct to the misinformation campaign totaled 1681 votes possibly added to Cruz's total.

6. Since Cruz's lead was only 6200 votes, that would mean only about 4 vote changes per precinct.

7. This calls into question the size of Cruz's victory, the size of Carson's loss, and the number of delegates apportioned.

8. Question: Should that be acknowledge by the Republican Party in a public news release?


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Conspiracy; Local News
KEYWORDS: carson; causus; coinflips; cruz; electionfraud; fraud; govtabuse; iowa; iowacaucus; misinformation; nocoinflips; rubio; trump; voterfraud
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To: RitaOK

Not one person has been able to give me a quote of Cruz lying about this. And yet the venom here is palpable.

I’m beginning to see what people have been saying about Trump supporters. The truth doesn’t matter.

Trump is starting to scare me.


101 posted on 02/03/2016 11:11:46 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: butterdezillion

You fire people like this! Then your apology is meaningful.

WND had the story up days ago on Cruz’ choice in operators, bdz. Jeff Roe, Campaign Mngr.

Daniel Gabriel, Operative

Wake up. This is the Cruz operation. He hired ‘em, he chose ‘em, he pays ‘em.

And, he is the smartest boy in the room, after all. They are STILL on the payroll. And, Steve King has been duped by Cruz. I feel sorry for bumbling King.


102 posted on 02/03/2016 11:17:22 AM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: xzins
Good analysis. I did a similar one yesterday and noted it on FR. If 3 or 4 percent of Carson's supporters had gone to Cruz, due to the dirty trick, that would represent Cruz's winning margin over Trump and would also validate entrance polling results.

Carson even after the dirty trick was almost in double digits; considering there are people still campaigning with low single digits, it strains credulity to think that Carson, fourth and almost in double digits in Iowa, would quit the race. That it was INNOCENTLY and benignly suggested as realistic is an insult to people's intelligence.

It's quite reasonable to think that Carson was at 13, 14 or even 15 percent PRIOR to the Cruz dirty trick.

103 posted on 02/03/2016 11:18:19 AM PST by gg188 (Ted Cruz, R - Goldman Sachs)
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To: RitaOK

This guy with the tweet that you are so glad got screenshotted - his tweet was that he had confirmed it with Carson’s NH people. Carson’s NH people had just quit the day before and joined the Cruz team because they didn’t want to throw away their time and effort on somebody who couldn’t win.

The Cruz campaign told one of their precinct guys that there was more to the story than was being reported. But when Carson changed his mind and contradicted his website schedule to say he was still going to campaign after flying home to FL to get new clothes, the Cruz campaign knew when they were asked about why they told their precinct people that Carson was going to have a big announcement this week they shouldn’t say it was the NH Carson people who had told them that. If Carson was going to change his mind, that’s his prerogative. The campaign didn’t expose what had happened. Instead they apologized, to uphold Carson’s dignity. Now that’s class.

What’s happened to Cruz since then, not so much.

I’ve defended Cruz, Trump, and Carson even as accusations hurl all over between supporters saying the other guy’s supporters are creepy. I’m undecided between Cruz and Trump. But I’ve got to say I’m starting to get really creeped out about the Trump supporters right now. It reminds me of the old “Left Behind” video - where Leo Carpathia shoots the capitalists at the UN-type meeting and everybody starts repeating what a “tragical, tragical” thing it was that the 2 men committed suicide.

I need to do something worthwhile like shovel snow. This is creeping me out.


104 posted on 02/03/2016 11:21:52 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: RitaOK
Rush suggested yesterday and again today that Cruz should give some of his delegates over to Carson due to the Cruz dirty trick.

I thought from caucus night that Cruz should, after a REAL apology, terminate his campaign and drop out.

What did he know, when did he know it---same questions as about Cruz's previous dirty tricks, like the mailer and the Beck tweet---and if he did not know it, what does that say about his ability at organizational leadership? (I think it's clear that these Cruz dirty tricks didn't happen and wouldn't have happened without the knowledge and explicit approval of Cruz, but if that's not true, Cruz has shown himself incapable of organizational management OR creating a culture of deceit, where dirty tricks don't even need to be cleared with the boss.)

105 posted on 02/03/2016 11:23:34 AM PST by gg188 (Ted Cruz, R - Goldman Sachs)
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To: RitaOK

You fire somebody for sharing a CNN story?

Wow. I need some fresh air.


106 posted on 02/03/2016 11:24:17 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: butterdezillion

Believe Gabriel? lol.

Blaming TRUMP was no where but in Gabriel’s fine mind.


107 posted on 02/03/2016 11:24:53 AM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: RitaOK

I wasn’t blaming Trump yesterday. Yesterday I suspected that it was the GOPe trying to drive Carson’s supporters to Rubio. It makes no sense for Carson to not just make his announcement as he had planned to do. He got the same percentage of votes as the polls had said he’d get. He’s not come up with a bunch of people who said they changed their vote because of it. It seems like he’s discovered within the last day or so that he can get a lot of attention by falsely accusing Cruz. I can’t help but wonder what’s up with him. I’ve thought better of him than that.

And today the Trump people are being ugly and stupid, beyond what I’ve seen before. It’s eye-opening.

I’m one who likes Trump for exposing the 2008 coup. But I don’t like what I’m seeing. Not at all.


108 posted on 02/03/2016 11:33:26 AM PST by butterdezillion
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To: Duchess47

Such BS. As if Cruz himself issued the order. As if Cruz himself was the one who jumped on this and said EVERYONE, rush forward with this narrative.

Do you know just how many people Cruz had in his “campaign staff”? Do you realize how spread out across the state they were and how much organization goes into getting everyone to do things?

I would bet money, that Cruz found out AFTER his campaign staff already took the initiative to spread the word.

And hey, BIG FREAKIN WOOP, CNN reported Carson was leaving. It LOOKED like he was dropping out, when Carson himself sent out the message he was leaving to go to FL and wasn’t going to NH or SC and had a big announcement, which he put out BEFORE the caucus results were in, and right after Huckabee dropped out.

And I bet if you look hard enough, you’ll see Rubio behind it too. To attack Cruz and say he’s this terrible person, can’t be trusted, yadda yadda, is not only knee jerk reaction, but shows how ignorant some are on the actual facts.


109 posted on 02/03/2016 12:24:33 PM PST by Lucky9teen (God's blessing has been on America from the very beginning, and I believe God isn't done yet. TCruz)
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To: onyx; xzins

Been out all day, but I did catch some of Rush in my car. Highly disappointing to hear Rush today. I luvs my Rush, but today, he was pushing Rubio and Cruz, and poo-pooing Trump. It was not fun.

The article is an interesting take on just how much it might impact the “win” that Cruz had. I think Trump had better focus on getting more of a ground game if he can and letting this go. Supposedly he was threatening to sue?

I don’t blame Carson for being miffed and pushing this.


110 posted on 02/03/2016 5:16:59 PM PST by Girlene
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To: QualityMan

Ditto. There was no mention at my caucus either. I would guess very few precincts heard this rumor.


111 posted on 02/03/2016 5:25:15 PM PST by cornfedcowboy
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