NASA: current El Niño ‘appears likely to equal the event of 1997-98’

wattsupwiththat.com ^ | October 19, 2015 | Anthony Watts

[MNDude]

All I care about is what will this mean for winter in Minnesota this year?

[Noumenon]

You’re scarin’ the livestock!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the comments:

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Sun Spot says:

October 19, 2015 at 8:28 pm

1997-1998 El Nino activity happened along with or because of high solar activity, 2015 extremely low solar activity and the El Nino result ??? There is a quantitative difference here folks sooooo ???

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

More: From the comments:

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Stephen Wilde says:

October 20, 2015 at 4:55 am

Solar activity has not been especially low since we have just passed the peak of cycle 24.

The best I feel able to say is that across multiple solar cycles the balance between El Nino and La Nina will gradually change in favour of La Nina when solar activity is declining whereas that balance will gradually change in favour of El Nino when solar activity is increasing.

The interesting feature of the current strong El Nino will be the extent to which it affects average global surface temperatures.

At a time of less active sun and a cloudier Earth (as observed) this El Nino should have a smaller effect than did the El Nino of 1997/8 even if it is of much the same intensity.

[Rodamala]

Every two to seven years, an unusually warm pool of water — sometimes two to three degrees Celsius higher than normal develops across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to create a natural short-term climate change event.

Uh, Oh! Someone just got sh*tcanned at NASA for not following the Narrative.

[fireman15]

Thanks....doesn’t look so good for drought relief out here in California,....if I understand him.

Unlike the global warming alarmists... Bastardi has his reputation to protect so he is not going to predict an end to the cyclic water mismanagement event in California until it is well underway. However, even with the predictable hype, this El Niño is notable and is likely to result in some type of change to the current weather pattern in California.

It is doubtful that this means the snow-pack will return to normal in the Sierra Nevada this year, but who knows? It probably will result in more rain than the past few years. But fear not, to keep the narrative going Kalifornia officials will be more than happy to let the water run back out of the reservoirs early to help the delta smelt.

So if by "drought relief" you are referring to a return to intelligent management of the water resources that California has been blessed with... sorry there is not a chance of that in the near future. You likely will get heavy rains that will cause floods, land slides, deaths and billions of dollars of damage to homes and properties but don't expect that to translate into rising water levels behind the dams. That wouldn't fit the narrative so it is not likely to happen

[halo66]

Not sure if you have seen this...Here is the Los Angeles/Oxnard NWS discussion about the upcoming El Nino:

https://youtu.be/u5K5qKnSx7g

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks!

[discostu]

I could do with another 88 degree Christmas day.

[IWONDR]

Are NASA and NOAA’s NWS replicating each others forecasting work?

[SunkenCiv]

:’) When the rain comes, you run and hide your head...

[TigersEye]

I couldn’t find the side by side animation but I see a huge difference between those two static pics of ‘97 and ‘15. They don’t look analogous to me at all.

[Marine_Uncle]

I wish I could give you a solid response, but I can’t. My brains are fried due medical issues with my 99 year old mom.