Posted on 08/09/2015 8:05:16 PM PDT by Swordmaker
Correlation does not equal causation - the old post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.
Do it your way but I use the stopwatch on my Casio all the time
Are you daft? Your factually challenged article and the source of its factually wrong data were shown to be FALSE over a month ago. Then when Apple released it's Audited Financial Report and its Financial Conference Call it was proved to be complete HOAKUM.YOU posted outdated FUD which I corrected. My feelings have nothing to do with it. So you respond with an ad hominem attack on me because YOU were shown to be wrong. . . good try, Stuck!
Because you like them. And it’s a faster way of checking the time than any smartphone, just a tip of the wrist. And they remain a constant, my computer at work is pulling from some time server somewhere that’s been known to be wrong by as much as 10 minutes, my car has its time, clocks at home can drift. But I have a good watch that keeps time very well, and for me THAT’S what time it is regardless of what the nearest clock says.
True. However find another disruptive force in a market that has had no other changes or challenges in over eight years that has competed for the same wearable space and has sold anywhere from $1.5-$3 Billion of product in the period leading up to and during the month in question. They could not and you cannot. Ergo the most likely candidate for such a disruption in the market that would cause a disruption to a market for wrist wearable products, as determined by the ANALYSTS IN THE LUXURY WATCH MARKET, was the Apple Watch. I would suggest that is good evidence that it is not a non sequitur.
Need some Kleenex?
Well, conjecture is conjecture and nothing more than that.
I’m not trying to ‘prove’ anything, I was just pointing out the obvious fallacy.
Do you even read what I write, or is it a lack of comprehension? You attribute emotion to a factual response refuting your contentions? You are flailing in the wind in your attempt to denigrate me when all I have presented are factual responses.
I can prove everything I have posted. See Reply #52 and Reply #57 to Up Yours Marxist with the links showing the factuality of my comments.
Plus consider this report summary from Seeking Alpha:
Apple Watch Volumes Are Much Better Than Slice Figures Suggest
Jul. 13, 2015 1:57 PM ET — Seeking Alpha — About: Apple Inc. (AAPL)Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Summary
- The sensationalist headlines are at it again; this time we have to explore whether Apple Watch flopped.
- I'm not convinced by Slice's data, because it's only inclusive of the United States and excludes the older demographic.
- Apple Watch sales were constrained by supply chain issues, which was a risk factor I mentioned in prior articles.
- Apple Watch doesn't need to generate iPhone-like volumes to be considered a commercially viable product.
- Apple Watch could pick up momentum in the holiday quarter, so the doom mongering crowd will likely get this one wrong.
I note that Slice Intelligence revised its estimate to ~30,000 Apple Watch units per day in the United States. . . Figuring that at the 37% of the total sales reported which is what factually is the case, then Apple is, according to Slice's completely erroneous figures, selling approximately 81,000 Apple Watches per day worldwide at an average weighted selling price of $500 (70% are in the $349 to $399 bracket and 28% are in the $599 up to $1099, and 2% are $10,000 to $17,000. Ignoring the Apple Watch Editions, that gives us the $500 weighting. . . add the Editions, and it adds more than $250 to the average.
So using Slice Intelligence's flawed US sales figures, along with the International sales percentages, Apple is selling 81,000 Apple Watches per day at $500 average selling price. That means that Apple is making $40,500,000 PER DAY just from selling watches worldwide.
Multiply that by 30 for monthly sales = $1.2 Billion! That number times 3 for quarterly = $3.6 BILLION! And that number times 4 for a low estimate of yearly, because it ignores the upcoming holiday season = $14.4 BILLION in watch sales per year! If we add in the solid gold Apple Watch Edition, assuming the percentages and margins remain the same, that number is 50% larger ($500 average selling price jumps to more than $750 average selling price), = $21.6 BILLION!!!
If the Apple Watch were a stand alone business, using that figure, it would be #135 on the Fortune 500 list of largest businesses in the world by revenue. Without the Edition model it would be #213, just below CBS.
Remember, this is based on Slice Intelligence's already debunked protocols and flawed sampling system. . . so those are LOW estimates.
That's why I said "True". . . however, you should suggest another cause of the reduction in sales if you doubt their hypothesis. . . which is quite plausible because it is both reasonable and defensible as a cause. Merely saying it isn't or not plausible because it could be a fallacy does not make it so. Most often the obvious cause IS the cause.
“I don’t use a watch anymore because I carry a cell phone.”
Eggs Ackley! The only two people I know who wear a watch are both nurses who have to turn their cellphones of in the hospital.
I can get you some Kleenex if you need some. Oh and ping some more people. Let everyone see how unhinged you are.
Look Buddy, I just pinged the people in this thread you spread your misinformation to. . . so they can see accurate data.
Until now I have been polite to you. That's over. You use your Kleenex to clean up your messes you've made like this one. With your nasty personality and approach to discussion, I'm certain you make a lot of them. You can use them to wipe the drool from your chin.
I was wrong. I don’t have any Kleenex. I can order you some. Crybaby avenue, right?
By the way, Stuck, in case you had not noticed, I was consistently using data in your own link, to refute your assertion the Apple Watch was a "flop," and hoisted you on your own petard.
You should be the one crying in embarrassment . . . You just haven't notice you, and your link, were skewered, to mix metaphors.
Why don't you try debating the facts instead of using juvenile, personal attacks? Try refuting what I wrote, not attacking me personally. Challenge my math. Try something rational in your arguments. . . not insults and slurs based on an imagined emotional attack from me of which you have absolutely NO EVIDENCE. You come across as about 12 years old. . . or as a low information Liberal who doesn't THINK and merely EMOTES.
Ad hominem attack insults, intended to belittle your opponent, show you don't have anything in your factual arsenal for a logical dialogue but those insults and slurs. Such attacks are the last refuge of cowards who are afraid their arguments hold weight, they've lost to a more prepared and knowledgeable opponent, and that their positions are simply WRONG. You could not reply to my points so you personally attacked me. Bad form, old boy.
I can see you don't like people to know the facts, either, or how rudely you act. You prefer to throw your spit balls and run away. . . but don't like the light of daylight when others are brought into the discussion. You want to hide behind rocks and trees and snipe with debunked FUD. Good luck with your approach to debate. You simply don't know how to participate in a civil discussion.
Thanks for lowering the level of dialogue on FreeRepublic into your kindergarten.
So crybaby street then? I can’t help you unless you tell me where to send the Kleenex!
You are pathetic.
How about I just email you some coupons and you go use them to buy you some Kleenex? I suggest the extra absorbent ones to soak up all these tears.
Exactly what do you think you are accomplishing except making yourself look more stupid and foolish. An economist has just eviscerated your position with evidence and links, along with explanations with proof which you cannot answer at all, nor do you even try. . . so you sit there and throw out spit ball non sequitur insults like a clown.
Monkeys throw their own excrement at things they can't handle, you know. What you've done is of the same style and means as much. You keep your Kleenex. You'll need all those boxes to clean the excrement you spread in threads off your hands. Do you amuse yourself by eating your boogers too? Have fun.
I posted the rebuttals not for you but for those who might believe the twaddle you drove by and excreted on this thread.
Bye, have fun in the toddler wading pool. Just remember, unlike you, mature civil people don't pee in the pool. . .
crybaby@gmail? Is that it?
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