Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

New Earthquake Model Predicts a Bigger Quake: Why?
discovery.com ^ | Mar 13, 2015 12:30 PM ET | Patrick J. Kiger

Posted on 03/15/2015 7:00:21 PM PDT by BenLurkin

Earlier this week, the U.S. Geological Survey released a new study, which concluded that California faces a bigger chance of experiencing a powerful earthquake in the next 30 years than previous studies had predicted.

Non-seismologists who just glanced at the news headlines about the study -- including ours -- may have been left worrying that the risk of "The Big One" is now greater, due to some alarming change in Earthquake faults.

But the explanation is actually more complicated, though not necessarily more comforting. The upside is that recent discoveries about the nature of earthquakes and how they spread, coupled with advances in supercomputer software and monitoring technology, now enable scientists to make more accurate predictions about future quakes.

The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, also known as UCERF3, used those conceptual and technological advances to predict that the chances of an 8.0 or greater event -- roughly, the equivalent of the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 -- rocking the state in the next 30 years has increased from 4.7 percent to 7.0 percent. Meanwhile, the chances of significant but less-than-catastrophic quakes in the 6.5 to 7.0 range actually has gone down slightly in the new forecast.

The big reason for the difference from previous forecasts is that scientists have figured out how to solve a longstanding limitation in earthquake prediction models, according to Tom Jordan, a University of Southern California professor of earth sciences and one of the study's authors.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.discovery.com ...


TOPICS: Science
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-45 next last

1 posted on 03/15/2015 7:00:21 PM PDT by BenLurkin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

“Let’s publish something!”


2 posted on 03/15/2015 7:02:59 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The dog days are over /The dog days are done/Can you hear the horses? /'Cause here they come)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ClearCase_guy
Its the hockey stick.
3 posted on 03/15/2015 7:04:56 PM PDT by Dan(9698)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

Remove all the lubricant from the tectonic plates and what else would you expect? Yosemite is one mega pimple ready to explode. The remaining liberals might actually pay attention to the bible after it erupts...


4 posted on 03/15/2015 7:04:59 PM PDT by jsanders2001
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

global warming. the rocks are too hot.


5 posted on 03/15/2015 7:06:29 PM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JohnBrowdie

either that or fracking...


6 posted on 03/15/2015 7:07:40 PM PDT by Rio (Proud resident of the State of Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

Just a plea for more money from idiot professors!


7 posted on 03/15/2015 7:09:12 PM PDT by dalereed
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: JohnBrowdie

AL GORE: [T]wo kilometers or so down in most places there are these incredibly hot rocks, ‘cause the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees, and the crust of the earth is hot ...


8 posted on 03/15/2015 7:09:47 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The dog days are over /The dog days are done/Can you hear the horses? /'Cause here they come)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

Here in Concord, CA some houses are beginning to have cracks on the wall, on cement patio, door being stuck. Not sure but it sounds like the earth beneath is slipping inch by inch or perhaps shoddy workmanship in building the houses.


9 posted on 03/15/2015 7:14:12 PM PDT by Patriot Babe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

For the same reason globull warmunist models predict catastrophe?


10 posted on 03/15/2015 7:17:49 PM PDT by Darksheare (Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

Because......petroleum.....


11 posted on 03/15/2015 7:18:06 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jsanders2001
Yosemite is one mega pimple ready to explode

I'm sure you meant Yellowstone, not Yosemite, though there is a large volcano (Long Valley) near Yosemite.

12 posted on 03/15/2015 7:18:32 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

The problem is to much oil in the ground. It is making the faults slippery. We must re move all oil around the fault lines.


13 posted on 03/15/2015 7:22:05 PM PDT by ThomasThomas (EGO venit lego tantum titulus Posteri)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Inyo-Mono

Mammoth could be the big one.


14 posted on 03/15/2015 7:23:58 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Darksheare

Denier!


15 posted on 03/15/2015 7:26:44 PM PDT by PROCON (Always Give 100% --- Unless you're donating blood.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: BenLurkin

They just haven't got the hang of their new equipment.

16 posted on 03/15/2015 7:27:03 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Patriot Babe

The earth is always moving.
I’m just waiting for all those homes perched on the East Bay hills to go sliding down to the bay.


17 posted on 03/15/2015 7:36:20 PM PDT by peteyd (A dog may bite you in the ass,but it will never stab you in the back.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: PROCON

*screeeeeee!*
Uh oh.


18 posted on 03/15/2015 7:38:50 PM PDT by Darksheare (Those who support liberal "Republicans" summarily support every action by same.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: mrsmith

SoCal is Doomed,I tell You!

Rattle Snakes in Ocean Beach,

Machete fights in North Park

and now,

EARTH QUAKES!

We Are All Gonna Die !


19 posted on 03/15/2015 7:41:33 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Patriot Babe

Substandard foundations, design or construction.


20 posted on 03/15/2015 7:44:30 PM PDT by logi_cal869 (-cynicus-)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-45 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson