Posted on 03/05/2015 7:28:24 PM PST by Ben Mugged
Here is one reason the GOP has a real challenge to win the Presidency in 2016
The large majority of big cities in the US, most with high minority populations, lean Democrat. These cities, with obviously large populations, are in in states with large numbers of Electoral College votes – taking the state almost certainly Democrat.
There are at most 100 Electoral College votes in “swing states”. The Democratic candidate for President is almost assured of 191 EC votes going into the election while the GOP candidate is assured of only about 129. Thus the Democrat needs only EC 79 votes to win, while the GOP candidate must pick up 141.
As a result, the U.S. is unlikely to have a Republican President any time in the near future barring a massive move toward the GOP.
I have seen very little written about this in the past.
Pretty much common sense. 2004 was a win, but not overwhelming. That was a very strong GOP year. Our side has to run a strong race to win and have wind at our back. Fortunately, it is doable. Florida and Virginia are quite winnable. All that needs to happen is to regain footing in the midwest. Other than Indiana, we are losing OH, MI, WI, and IA consistently. We have to win two of those. I was surprised when all of those states went for Obama the 2nd time...and just two years after the midwest was a tidal wave for the GOP from Governors and Senators on down.
Big cities are known to give 110% of the vote to the Democrats. It makes it hard to win against them.
The main reason the GOP has no chance of obtaining the presidency in 2016, or maintaining a majority in the House and Senate, is that they do not stand for anything. They will not fight for any principle.
Thomas Jefferson had put it this way ...
"The States should be left to do whatever acts they can do as well as the General Government." --Thomas Jefferson to John Harvie, 1790.
So...how's that love of cheap labor, multiculturalism, and amnesty working out for you there, Stupid Party?
Well running the grandfather of Obamacare didn’t help and of course if you want to prove you aren’t just the party of super rich white guys you might not want to nominate the superest richest White guy ever. :-)
Walker proved that Wisconsin was winnable and not just on off years. We should be winning IA but for some reason Republican Presidential candidates don’t run very well in Iowa which should be as easy to win as West Virginia and Indiana. Rick Scott also proved that Florida is very winnable and he won with a ton of crap on his shoulders both times and money doesn’t explain it. Both Scott and Walker ran on issues and won. OH is also clearly winnable but the common thread in these states is they have a very large blue collar component that if you piss them off they don’t vote. This is one reason why it is so critical that we don’t nominate a dynasty figure. We need guys running who didn’t cut their teeth in Venture Capital and didn’t rise on the backs of their Daddy’s fame.
The problem is that Scott Walker would have lost the recall had it happened six months earlier or five months later (near or during the Presidential election).
Well, if you go my majority and not morality then yes, we have lost the battle. I hope for more in people but if you are right, then it does not matter anymore...crooked government by either party will survive..and lord we know that crooked government is the norm!
In the meantime, others will try to survive them.
Well that may or may not be true but one thing for certain is Barack isn’t going to be on the ballot which will depress the vote of key demographics that don’t show up for white Democrats. Kerry nearly lost Wisconsin to GW Bush which is going to be the big question in this next Presidential cycle. Did Barack Obama forever change the game or was it like Reagan only a temporary thing attached to the qualities of one man. Unlike Bush Hillary won’t be running as VP and she has a whole lot of baggage.
I have said for years that the Dems only have to win 6-7 big cities to win the swing states and the WH.
This discussion is pointless. Demographics have permanently pushed us over the cliff. There are now more free stuff getters and govt. employee than there are tax payers.
It is only going to get worse.
We have three choices left to us:
Coup
Civil War
Re-education Camps
I don’t think even a Cruz presidency could reverse the slide now.
Obutthole may not be on the ballot but I’m not sure he will be leaving the White House either. My wife was saying this a year ago and I dismissed it.
Watching Obola take continually more aggressive unconstitutional steps, with few voices raised in protest; I am beginning to wonder.
Look at OH last election. Kasich (a very imperfect conservative) ran a smart, determined campaign and walloped the opponent, even in the very democratic cities. Most of the HOR reps from OH are Republicans, and not Boehner cheerleaders.
If they lose OH again, it'll be AGAIN because the candidate doesn't inspire conservatives and independents to vote for that person.
I predicted this during his first term. Trigger race riots and declare marshal law using Homeland Security troops.
If Barak Obama is not the candidate and no other black candidate is running on the democrat side, blacks will not come out to vote in large numbers. The dems have already lost much of the youth vote due to Obamacare, and that no jobs to pay off school debt thing. Blacks won’t vote without a black candidate and hispanics are low info/low turn out voters as well.
If the republicans would concentrate on turning out their base, there would not be a problem. But they insist on trying to cater to everyone but majority Christian US citizens. I used to think they were “stupid.” Now I realize this is by choice. The Rockefeller wing wants to dominate conservatives so they refuse to follow the obvious logic of concentrating on turning out their own base the way the dems concentrate on turning out their base. If they did, there would be no contest. No matter how many minorities there are, citizens take civic duty more seriously than usurpers and right now, threatened with the loss of US sovereignty, US citizens have the most to lose.
But neither party stands up for them. I’m positive that is by GOPe design. Hard working conscientious US citizens don’t like socialism. Neither democrat party number one nor democrat party number two like that. They both want people to bow to their socialism.
Damn, I really like your discussion but of course you forget the most important part... Blacks will always vote for blacks and women will for the most part always vote for women. So we are left with what is left.
Lets see, those that get money for nothing will vote for who? Okay, let’s say the Democrats because they do promise these things. Lets take the rest of the electorate and see how they stand...
Oh well, lets not as it will lead to the same conclusion, those that need will vote Democrat and those that supply those needs will vote Republican. Sometimes I think that that world is dividing into two groups, those that provide and those that take...hmmm. What will happen when those that provide decide to stop providing to those that take?
Can we call that going going Galt!
Whoever said they don’t vote for who they vote for? The problem for the democrats will be turn out. Not getting them to vote dem. My point is that the republicans have the same problem but have ignored it for some quixotic chase after votes they were never going to get anyway. They should have been working as hard to turn out their base as the democrats work to to out theirs. But the republicans don’t do that on purpose. They are socialists/commies at heart and are ashamed of their base. They would rather lose chasing after lib votes than win with conservatives principles. But if they can fool some conservatives into believing that republican = conservative, they will take that vote as long as they can still get to enact lib policies.
Well, I think you hit the jackpot and isn’t it a shame that they don’t seem to want the Conservative vote! Geez, you would think that they are idiots but I expect that they are looking at the future - lots of illegal Democrats, lots of freeloaders... So, maybe they are right.
Unfortunately, they have missed the current politics but that has never let the Republicans miss a win... Actually, I think that Republicans are idiots (taken as a group)!!
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