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Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.
slate.com ^ | Jan. 23 2015 | Warren Sharp

Posted on 01/24/2015 1:08:10 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper

...One can clearly see the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays per fumble lost. The league average is 105 plays per fumble lost. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist whom I know from work on NFLproject.com and sent him the data. He said:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win.

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: Sports
KEYWORDS: nfl; superbowl
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“Rules Are For Suckers”: Patriots Motto
1 posted on 01/24/2015 1:08:10 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Berlin_Freeper

NFL in ANY game is like 85 car accidents in an hour...there is NOTHING that will help you hold on to the ball when you don’t actively protect it. This is another hopeful angle by the Pats haters.


2 posted on 01/24/2015 1:14:45 AM PST by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: ICE-FLYER

Cheating like the Patriots have done with deflated balls will help, a lot!


3 posted on 01/24/2015 1:20:14 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Berlin_Freeper

No matter what your mind is made up on that...so be it. I just get a kick out of the gyrations by those who wish their demise.


4 posted on 01/24/2015 1:23:14 AM PST by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: ICE-FLYER
“You mad, bro?”
5 posted on 01/24/2015 1:27:07 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Berlin_Freeper

Clever line...wasn’t it?

Im more old school anyway...give me the NFL of the 80’s and 70’s when it was a lot more gritty...


6 posted on 01/24/2015 1:44:23 AM PST by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: Berlin_Freeper
New England Patriots Cialis Commercial Parody (For Deflated-Balls)
7 posted on 01/24/2015 1:57:01 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: ICE-FLYER

The remarkable thing for the upcoming next season? Some idiot standing there with the ref’s and continually measuring the air pressure of balls. Air Ref. Imagine making $50,000 a year and your only function is to stand there for two hours and continually measure ball pressure, with free laundry, free parking at the game, and a great viewpoint to watch the game being played.


8 posted on 01/24/2015 1:58:54 AM PST by pepsionice
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To: Berlin_Freeper

You can prevent a fumble by getting the officials to reverse it by invoking the Tuck Rule. It’s been done before.


9 posted on 01/24/2015 2:00:16 AM PST by adversarial
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To: Berlin_Freeper

So, if deflated footballs are so advantageous to the offense, how come it took 75 years until the first NFL team complained about it?

Everyone was obeying the rules?

Yeah, right.

And, before each play, at least one referee touches the ball. So, until this game, not one ref gripped a deflated ball for 75 years.

Yeah, right.


10 posted on 01/24/2015 2:21:00 AM PST by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen
Everybody was obeying the rules?

What rules? The punishment is for the ref to replace the deflated ball and report the incident to the commissioner.

Isn't this a bit like throwing a spitball or corking a bat? (if there has been a misdeed)

11 posted on 01/24/2015 2:44:09 AM PST by grania
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To: ICE-FLYER; All

I came up with an idea...

If there are teams out there and their balls are deflated...

I’m developing this new product called...

Viagra-air, tm

For when the time is right


12 posted on 01/24/2015 2:50:49 AM PST by stevie_d_64 (I will settle for a "perfectly good, gently used" kidney...Apply within...)
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To: grania

Re: “Isn’t this a bit like throwing a spitball or corking a bat?”

Exactly like that - except baseball players have been doing that for at least 100 years.

My point - if a deflated ball really does help the offense, how come the team on defense is not constantly asking the ref to check the pressure?

And, from personal experience, I think it’s much harder to throw a tight spiral with a deflated ball, but catching it might be easier.


13 posted on 01/24/2015 3:00:04 AM PST by zeestephen
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To: Berlin_Freeper

And you would likewise expect a perennial Super Bowl contender to have a low fumbles per game ratio.


14 posted on 01/24/2015 3:02:46 AM PST by HMS Surprise (Chris Christie can STILL go straight to hell.)
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To: ICE-FLYER

...and 70’s when it was a lot more gritty...
******************************************
I recall Conrad Dobler of the SL Cardinals being called the dirtiest NFL player in the ‘70s because of his reputation of biting opposing players.


15 posted on 01/24/2015 3:15:20 AM PST by octex
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To: Berlin_Freeper

Roger Goodell makes I think about $40 million per year running the NFL. Almost daily we see the results of his leadership failures with politically correct promotions and nonsense like pink attire, Super Bowl halftimes featuring lefty singers, banning Rush Limbaugh from having ownership, and the list goes on. When is this guy accountable for anything?


16 posted on 01/24/2015 3:23:46 AM PST by doosee (Captain, we are approaching a new level of Hell.)
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To: stevie_d_64

You’re a bit late to the party:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd3D2gsPUR0


17 posted on 01/24/2015 3:43:07 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: octex

I was talking more of the hard play of the gam, not animal like behavior! No Mike Tyson bites now!!


18 posted on 01/24/2015 3:50:13 AM PST by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: zeestephen

Yeah, if the ball is too deflated, throwing a spiral is harder.

But we’re not talking about too deflated here.

From my understanding most QBs like it on the softer side; some, on the fuller side.

The QBs probably regularly try to get slightly under-inflated balls through, and the refs may be used to them being used. But that’s different than a team deflating them after they’ve been checked and held by the refs.

If the Pats ball boys have been deflating them on the elevator ride from the refs’ office to the field in Foxboro, there supposedly should be video of that. Yeah, Tom Brady would have known about that and that the NFL had confiscated the security video from the elevator. So presumably that either didn’t happen or, quite unlikely, they knew the ball boy would be caught—and would take the fall for Tom.

If they can’t come up with any hard evidence, they may just bury the issue with a combination of Tom choosing slightly underinflated balls to submit to the refs and the cool and wet conditions during the game.


19 posted on 01/24/2015 3:50:54 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Berlin_Freeper
Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution...

Unwarranted assumption alert...

20 posted on 01/24/2015 3:52:59 AM PST by Zeppo ("Happy Pony is on - and I'm NOT missing Happy Pony")
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