December Jobs "Significantly Below 200,000", Q4 GDP Tumbles To 2%, Markit Warns

Zero Hedge ^ | 01/06/2015 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

Markit's US Services PMI missed expectations of 53.7, priting at 53.3, its lowest since Feb 2014 (mid Polar Vortex). From record highs in June, PMI has plunged non-stop for six months leaving Markit noting Q4 growth is looking more like 2.0% than the 5.0% exuberance in Q3.

US Services PMI plunges...

 

and along with the tumble in manufacturing leaves the US Composite PMI at 14 month lows...

 

It gets worse. From the report, via Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

“The US economy lost significant growth momentum at the close of the year. Excluding the drop in activity caused by the October 2013 government shutdown, the manufacturing and service sector PMIs collectively signalled the weakest expansion since the end of 2012. This is also not just a one-month wobble: the pace of growth has now slowed for six consecutive months.

“The PMI surveys act as good leading indicators of GDP data, and suggest that the pace of US economic growth will have slowed in the fourth quarter. According to the PMIs, fourth quarter growth is looking more like 2.0% rather than the 5.0% annualised rate of expansion enjoyed in the third quarter.

“Job creation has waned alongside the slowdown, with the survey indicating that monthly payroll growth has slipped significantly below the 200,000 mark. Companies have become increasingly reluctant to take on staff due to the cloudier economic outlook, in turn linked to various factors ranging from global geopolitical concerns, worries about higher interest rates and uncertainty about rising staff healthcare costs.

“However, it’s important to note that growth is merely slowing from an unusually powerful rate rather than stalling. Lower oil and fuel prices should also help foster stronger economic growth as we move into 2015, by reducing the fuel bills of households and companies. Measured across both sectors, input costs showed the smallest rise since April 2013 in December. Lower prices will also of course provide added leeway for interest rates to remain on hold for longer.”

[DestroyLiberalism]

This was unexpected by the “experts”, I’m sure.

[dforest]

Yeah, and meanwhile the freaking mulatto clown is wasting jet fuel running around and tooting up how great he is in front of his paid shill clapping dunderheads.

[Sgt_Schultze]

President Potemkin

[winner3000]

So much for the “surge” in the economy that Democrat friendly reporters have been “reporting” breathlessly.

[Jack Hydrazine]

What is PMI? Private mortgage insurance?

[sappy]

as predictable as Obama golfing.

[Little Pig]

IOW, back to reality. The 5% number was because they rolled in Obamacare spending to inflate it, but they could only do that once.

[Jack Hydrazine]

Nevermind, I figured it out!

Purchasing Manager’s Index/Indices
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers_Index

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. The two principal producers of PMIs are Markit Group, which conducts PMIs for over 30 countries worldwide, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which conducts PMIs for the US.

Markit Group and the Institute for Supply Management separately compile The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys on a monthly basis by polling businesses that represent the makeup of the respective sector. The surveys cover private sector companies, but not the public sector.

The current Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey can be found under “ISM Reports On Business” on the ISM home page, or directly on this page. The surveys are released shortly after the end of the reference period. The actual release dates depend on the sector covered by the survey. Manufacturing data are generally released on the 1st working day of the month, followed by construction on the 2nd working day and services on the 3rd working day.[1]

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in Tempe, Arizona, began to produce the report for the US in 1948. The data for the index are collected through a survey of 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on five different fields, namely, production level, new orders from customers, speed of supplier deliveries, inventories and employment level. Respondents can report either better, same or worse conditions than previous months. For all these fields the percentage of respondents that reported better conditions than the previous months is calculated. The five percentages are multiplied by a weighing factor (the factors adding to 1) and are added.[2]

The Chicago-PMI survey registers manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region somewhat mirrors the United States overall in its distribution of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity.

The predominant operator and owner of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) series outside the US is the Markit Group[2]

The Markit and ISM Purchasing Managers Indices include additional sub indices for manufacturing surveys such as new orders, employment, exports, stocks of raw materials and finished goods, prices of inputs and finished goods.[2]

Other similar purchasing managers indices are operated by the IFO in Germany, The Bank of Japan in Japan (tankan), the China PMI operated by the Chinese Government,[citation needed] and the Swedish PMI run by private bank Swedbank.[3]

[SeekAndFind]

RE: What is PMI? Private mortgage insurance?

Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI).

This is an indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector.

The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of more than 50 represents expansion of the manufacturing sector, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

BTW, Prior to September 1, 2001, the acronym (PMI) stood for Purchasing Managers’ Index. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) now uses only the acronym, PMI. Although the ISM publishes several indexes, the PMI is the most widely followed and is sometimes referred to as the ISM index.

[alloysteel]

But the original aim was “successful” - that the Current Regime was somehow “miraculously” rescuing the economy of that territory once known as “the United States of America”, and that it was all due to the spirited defense of the community organization, providing the means for the Open Society to continue to reform itself.

Without the aid of or with reference to the existing code of laws.

[scooby321]

Don't believe any Government numbers

[Sam Gamgee]

Yeah what a surprise.

[SoFloFreeper]

Blame the weather. Or the Tea Party. Or ATMs. Or North Korea. Or Big Oil. Or Bush. Or Sarah Palin. Or the “gun lobby”.

[oblomov]

As Dr. Copper and Dr. Crude predicted...