Ebola death toll rises to 5,420: WHO

AFP ^ | Nov. 20, 2014, 09:43AM IST | AFP

[DouglasKC]

So you are predicting 43 million dead by next November, that is fewer than the predictions that run as high as 6 billion. How many Americans are you predicting?

I'm not "predicting" anything. I'm looking at how may new people get infected and stating that if nothing changes this is what will happen. Verifying it is easy. Go back and look at the article i just linked to. A month ago there were around 8000 cases. A few days ago there were over 15,000. And remember this is under reported. Doubling every month.

[DouglasKC]

"Frieden warned Thursday that without immediate, concerted, bold action, the Ebola virus could become a global calamity on the scale of HIV. He spoke at a gathering of global health officials and government leaders at the World Bank headquarters in Washington" Aids has killed about 36 million and is down to killing about 1.6 million a year now, you seem to think Ebola will reach 43 million by next year this time.

No I keep saying it will IF nothing changes. And it will...

[PJ-Comix]

I'm not sure about those numbers but the rate of infections is till doubling every month and the death rate is still at 70%.

It appears to be doubling every 6 weeks but that is based on OFFICIAL stats which vastly underestimate the true figure.

[Vermont Lt]

I have to disagree.

The folks doing those predictions, at least some of them, were using forecasting tools used every day in hospitals and research labs all over the world.

The variables such as intervention or the insertion of better meds are difficult to predict without a lot more info.

I think the more conservative estimates had it at 15k by Dec 1. Those appear to be accurate.

The other thing is that the CDC has stopped reporting in tests or monitoring. But we are starting to see more reports again.

But for the next couple of weeks the Ebola story will be #3 or 4 on the hit parade after Obama, Furgeson, and ISIL.

[ansel12]

What are you disagreeing with me about in posts 3 and post 16 about the absurd predictions I mentioned?

Post 3 says “So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.” and post 16 says”100% of the earth’s population infected by December of next year.”

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!