Ebola death toll rises to 5,420: WHO

AFP ^ | Nov. 20, 2014, 09:43AM IST | AFP

[wtd]

• Ebola death toll rises to 5,420: WHO

  GENEVA: The World Health Organization said Wednesday that 5,420 people had so far died of Ebola across eight countries, out of a total 15,145 cases of infection, since late December 2013.

  On Friday, the UN health agency had reported 5,177 deaths and 14,413 cases.

  The WHO believes that the number of deaths is likely far higher, given that the fatality rate in the current outbreak is known to be around 70 percent.

[wtd]

Quote:

"WHO said Wednesday that a total of 584 healthcare workers were known to have contracted the virus, and 329 of them had died. "

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping...

A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread

[ansel12]

So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.

[alpo]

This morning one of the two Gulfstream 3 jets was on it’s way to Dakar, probably to bring another case to Omaha.

The tail numbers of these planes are N163PA and N173PA.
They fly out of Cartersville, GA

[ansel12]

Those privately owned planes are in high demand.

[Dark Knight]

So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.<<

They were using climate change models.

DK

[SaxxonWoods]

Reported cases are going up much faster than new reported deaths.

[Oliviaforever]

” Ebola death toll rises to 5,420”

And this very same year, the death toll for the flu will be 500,000.

If one wishes to successfully manage risk, they should concern themselves with the flu and not Ebola.

[stormhill]

The WHO believes that the number of deaths is likely far higher, given that the fatality rate in the current outbreak is known to be around 70 percent.

We won't get fooled again

[PGalt]

Thanks for the post; info.

Health/life BUMP!

[null and void]

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

Bring out your dead! The Dark Man cometh! Bring out your dead! The Dark Man cometh! Bring out your......

(Since all records of obama's past were lost in a tragic boating accident and fire, no one can be certain that the guy in the red circle isn't him...)

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[Vermont Lt]

Most of the posters doing those predictions were using pretty straight forward forecasting tools. The problem is the number of variables used in the tools varies widely and there is a certain level of “chaos” involved here.

It remains a hot zone. It remains the largest outbreak of its kind. And it appears to still be out of control.

[DouglasKC]

So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.

I'm not sure about those numbers but the rate of infections is till doubling every month and the death rate is still at 70%.

That means if there's been 15,000 cases so far (and both WHO and the CDC believe this is underreported by a factor of 2 to 3 times) then in another month there will have been 30,000 cases.

So by Dec 20, 30,000.

By Jan 20, 60,000
By Feb, 120,000
By March, 240,000
By April, 480,000
By May 960,0000
By June 1,920,0000
By July 3,840,000
By August 7,680,000
By Sept 2015: 15,360,000
By October 2015: 30,720,000
By November 2015: 61,440,000

At a 70% death rate over 43,000,000 will be dead.

Again the rate of infection is at least doubling every single month...still. That hasn't changed. IF it continues this IS what will happen.

The ONLY thing that has changed is that the Ebola "czar" has leaned on the press to make it not so scary. But math is math and there is still no cure and no vaccine. And the death rate is still 70%.

It's not "predictions". It's not fear mongering. It's not alarmism. It's looking at the numbers, looking at the infection rates and extrapolating from there. If nothing changes this IS what will happen.

[ansel12]

So you are predicting 43 million dead by next November, that is fewer than the predictions that run as high as 6 billion.

How many Americans are you predicting?

[DouglasKC]

You also might want to read this article from last month from the Washington Post:

The Omninous Math of the Ebola Epidemic.

I was being somewhat conservative in saying it's doubling every month. These guys said every 3 weeks.

But of course this was written just before the czar started shaping public opinion....

[ansel12]

Goofy predictions, one thread had 100% of the earth’s population infected by December of next year.

The left does this all the time, they ignore variables and intervention and give us predictions that are silly.

[ansel12]

"Frieden warned Thursday that without immediate, concerted, bold action, the Ebola virus could become a global calamity on the scale of HIV. He spoke at a gathering of global health officials and government leaders at the World Bank headquarters in Washington"

Aids has killed about 36 million and is down to killing about 1.6 million a year now, you seem to think Ebola will reach 43 million by next year this time.

[tet68]

June of 2016 is a long way away yet.

[ansel12]

Yes it is, if you think that 6 billion people will die of Ebola by then, I hope that you are preparing to survive the Road Warrior world the survivors will be living in.

[tet68]

I prepare as best I can. We have no idea how
this will end or where it will go from here.
Good luck to you.
t.