The ominous math of the Ebola epidemic

washingtonpost.com ^ | October 9 at 2:15 PM | By Joel Achenbach, Lena H. Sun and Brady Dennis

[BenLurkin]

When the experts describe the Ebola disaster, they do so with numbers. The statistics include not just the obvious ones such as caseloads, deaths and the rate of infection, but also the ones that describe the speed of the global response.

Right now, the math still favors the virus.

Global health officials are looking closely at the “reproduction number,” which estimates how many people, on average, will catch the virus from each person stricken with Ebola. The epidemic will begin to decline when that number falls below one. A recent analysis estimated the number at 1.5 to two.

The number of Ebola cases in West Africa has been doubling about every three weeks. There is little evidence so far that the epidemic is losing momentum.

[3catsanadog]

I'm wondering if this virus that is afflicting so many children lately with paralysis and now death is something that has been brought into the country by way of the surge of children from the southern Americas.

Doubt we will know for sure because the media sure isn't touching on that possibility.

[DouglasKC]

I wonder how the media was reporting the Spanish Influenza epidemic in 1918

They essentially weren't from what I understand. The story is they vastly underreported it to avoid panic and lack of moral in wartime. Spain was the only "safe" country to report on it about because it was neutral. That's why it got stuck with the name Spanish flu.

[RedHeeler]

“We have only just begun, with white lace and promises...” Ain’t it wonderful?

[Enlightened1]

“The number of Ebola cases in West Africa has been doubling about every three weeks. There is little evidence so far that the epidemic is losing momentum.”

Yep and when people are tested, a few days after being around an ebola patient (usually 7 to 10 days after), and they are NOT POSITIVE YET.... We have people running around screaming EVERYTHING IS SAFE.....

When NOTHING could be further from the truth.

Then more people get around the possible infected person, well within in the 21 day period, FURTHER ENDANGERING THE PUBLIC.

I’m astounded at how stupid some people can be. What the hell are they trying to do infect everyone?

NO ONE should be in the clear until 21 to 30 days after the fact IMO.

It is insane to allow these people to run around in the public after only a few days. That’s part of the reason why it spread like wild fire in West Africa.

[A Formerly Proud Canadian]

Only after October 19, 2015 may I feel impending doom, though I have a strong sense of discomfort heading up to that date. By law, we (Canada) must have an election by then. The Lieberals, under Trudeau Jr. are leading the Conservatives by a wide margin in the polls. Other than Sun News Network, the national media in Canada tongue wash Turd-owe even more than the US MSM tongue wash 0.00bola!

Like a Kennedy in the US, he has a ‘name’ in this country, but that is all. His old man had a very arrogant personality but was brilliant. His mother had a gentle personality, and was a somewhat attractive woman, but would never be mistaken for an intellectual. Turd-owe Jr. inherited his father’s personality and his mother’s intelligence. He also fills out his suit as well as 0.00bola does! Empty!

Lord help Canada if the Dhimmis win this November and then Turd-owe becomes our PM!

[skeeter]

I would think any conservative worried about what open borders is doing to our country, as well as the growing trusting dependance on government by more and more of the citizenry would see this Ebola threat as a good way to wake people the hell up as to why we need border security and why the government cannot be trusted with our lives.

To use Obama's favorite overused phrase, it is a 'teachable moment'. The point needs to be driven home.

[PGalt]

Thanks for posting. Be prepared BUMP!

(who will be the 1st FReeper that gets EBOLA?)

Be prepared. Life/health BUMP!

[Nuc 1.1]

True enough so far. We will see. Very interesting subject matter. So sad for the victims. We will lose most of the world to this or something else. Small pox?. It is what a few marxist scientists want, and marxists enjoy killing innocents.

[Califreak]

They would rather be sued for wrongful death than being “racist” I suppose

[SaxxonWoods]

Ebola won’t be much of a problem in the US.

It will only take a handful of cases to start a panic, as is obvious reading these threads.

And we’ll have a handful of cases soon.

The politicians will have no choice then.

[11th_VA]

This Ebola thing so far or AIDS is nothing compared to that.

One main reason Ebola is not as deadly yet is it kills it's host too fast. A victim only has a few days to pass the virus before he/she dies. But scientist say a small mutation could cause people to die more slowly and then infected individuals could spread the virus to more 'vectors' before they themselves died. Their more worried about that then the virus mutating to an airborne virus.

[ansel12]

Now there is a better thread, predicting more 100% dead of the world’s population.

[sten]

transportation changes since then (we were still using horses) changes the speed of transmission.

the Spanish flu would be equally devastating today. if that happened today, there’d be far more then 18m dead

[ansel12]

I wonder how the media was reporting the Spanish Influenza epidemic in 1918 .....killed like 18 million in two years. This Ebola thing so far or AIDS is nothing compared to that.

Aids is no slouch, 2.3 million in 2005 and 1.6 million in 2012.

[ansel12]

Here it is 100% of the human race dead within 349 days.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3213326/posts

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“the Spanish flu would be equally devastating today. if that happened today, there’d be far more then 18m dead”

I agree with your premise regarding the spread of infection, but I think that there are a lot of factors that would make the virus less lethal today - at least in those nations that have modernized living conditions. That said, influenza truly has an astounding capacity to kill.

[jiggyboy]

Yes it is. The number of cases is at a rate of two thousand fold from the rate of the past forty years. It will probably be double that by the end of this calendar year, as those numbers are for only the past three or months of the Child Invasion.

[jiggyboy]

from another thread (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3211346/posts?page=26#26):

Here we go. I’d say this excerpt is even more damning: 26 in 36 years is far less than 100 in 40 years.

“Enterovirus 68 was first identified in a California lab in 1962, after four children came down with a severe respiratory illness. Between 1970 and 2005, only 26 cases of enterovirus 68 [1] in the United States were reported to the CDC. Since 2000, the government agency has kept a closer watch and has seen 47 cases, Oberste said.”

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/24/health/mystery-illness-in-california/

That “since 2000” qualifier makes it unclear how many of those 47 cases are 2000-2005 and how many between 2005 and the Southern Invasion.

Note: From the embedded link, “the highest number of reports in a single year was 11 in 2003”. That drops that 26 down to 15 in 36 years. How many multiples of that are we seeing this year? A thousand-fold? Two thousand? So far, with three months to go?

[1] http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5508a1.htm

[zipper]

If any of you are former or current military members you know how carefully your chem gear must be worn to afford protection.

The military chemical warfare gear is much more protective than any of the protective suits I’ve seen in the media, being worn by those exposed to ebola-infected persons. I know there are “level 2” and up to “level 4” protective suits, and that only a couple of medical facilities in the USA offer level 4 protection (I think one is at the CDC in Atlanta).

But the real difference is in the procedures used to remove the protective gear. Once the gear is contaminated, the military member goes through a several-step process to get the gear off. You don’t just peel it off and throw it on the ground.

In the military chem-gear it is assumed that a pinhead-sized drop of nerve gas is lethal, and stuck to your chem suit could possibly contaminate you after you’ve cleared the target area following a chemical attack. So, the procedures for removal of the gear assume the outer garments are contaminated with lethal gas or biological agents. The removal of the gear takes longer than putting it on — maybe 30 minutes of a step-by-step process.

First comes the shower, which removes the contaminants from outside the garments. This does not appear to be part of any protocols I have seen being employed by medical personnel. If this is not done, there is a significant danger of touching the contaminant during the process of peeling off the outer layers of protective garments.

After that, there is another shower after the outer gear is removed, this time after the inner garments are also removed.

I think that is a likely way some of these “protected” hot zone workers are getting the virus on their skin. They’re not decontaminating and removing the protective garments carefully enough.

[BenLurkin]

brought into the country by way of the surge of children from the southern Americas.

There is no doubt in my mind that is what happened.