Could the Black Death Actually Have Been an Ebola-like Virus?

nature.com ^ | Nov 8, 2013 | Julia Paoli

[Marie]

Things seem to be looking up for rats. After more than 500 years, rats may be off the hook for causing the Black Death, the horrible plague that claimed up to 60% of the European population. In virtually every textbook the Bubonic Plague, which is spread by flea-ridden rats, is named as the culprit behind the chaos. But mounting evidence suggests that an Ebola-like virus was the actual cause of the Black Death and the sporadic outbreaks that occurred in the following 300 years.

At the forefront of this theory are two researchers from the University of Liverpool, Dr. Christopher Duncan and Dr. Susan Scott. Let's look at six small pieces of this puzzle.

[Cold Heat]

Yes, there are far more dangerous microbes out there then the ebola virus in terms of mortality.

This is why I am not very concerned about it.

While it got out of control in West Africa, at some point it will have picked most of the low hanging fruit and will slow it’s advance.

In the US, the Dallas incident will be interesting to watch, to see how our systems cope with it.

It’s a very populated area of Texas, but if I am right, they will have it totally contained in a few days, with few if any transmitted infections and certainly none that are not on the surveillance and quarantine lists.

Having said that, I will be quite interested in the outcome.

Unfortunately for west Africa, this degree of control is not possible, thus they are low hanging fruit for the virus.

Some other western countries have already had this experience, and have faired just fine.

[SpaceBar]

Fringe kook theory of the week. Yersinia pestis has been clearly identified as the infectious agent from european plague pits.

[Usagi_yo]

Successful start to Agenda 21 — introduce a high mortality and communicable disease into the general population.

[PA Engineer]

After being transmitted via the bite of an infected flea, the Y. pestis bacteria become localized in an inflamed lymph node, where they begin to colonize and reproduce.

I read the original theory and that is true. The scientist agreed about the infecting flea vector, however they proposed there were parallel epidemics.

[boop]

It's called BUBONIC plague for a reason. "Bubos" are swollen lymph nodes, filled with bacteria.

The rats not dying en masse doesn't really impress me.

Animals are often immune from human diseases, and vice versa.

Very bad viral diseases like HIV/AIDS, and Herpes S (Simian) came from animals fairly similar to us, genetically, like monkeys and gorillas.

I'm sure everyone has heard the theory of the green monkey that "someone" in Africa either ate, or had sex with.

Thus a terrible virus, HIV became so lethal to humans.

[Kartographer]

Seems that some people just can’t wrap their minds around the fact that there is NO definitive scientific evidence exactly what disease the plague was.

There are only some descriptions of the symptoms and those symptoms fit a number of known disease and could even be something that has by now mutated itself into something entirely different or no long exist.

[LadyDoc]

So how did ebola get from central Africa to the steppes of Asia?

Just wondering...

And DNA suggests Pasturella Pestis was the cause of Justinian plague an the bubonic plague...

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping…

A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread

[Smokin' Joe]

Like the Spanish (1918) Flu, it is possible that in the most lethal forms, all three cause a cytokine storm and turn the body’s immune system against the body itself.

[grania]

most people will call in sick and stay home

After this mistake (with a person returning from the infected part of Africa, no less), there's a strong possibility that those showing up with symptoms are qoing to be put in quarantine until test results are back.

Are the ptb still playing the "reassure the public" game? The idea that it won't spread doesn't match with protected health care professionals now getting Ebola.

[redgolum]

Some of the symptoms are different than modern plague.

[DainBramage]

Once the patient called 911 he started infecting the fireman paramedics, possibly anyone who rode in the ambulance after him, all the firemen back at the station etc. what will they do when everyone in the EMS system is quarantined?

[Paperpusher]

Pasturella Pestis? At least one other person here as old as I am.

[varyouga]

Why can it not be BOTH animals and airborne transmission?

Rodents are known carriers of Ebola and there were many more of them in contact with humans during the middle ages. Having mice crawl on your bed at night was typical.

During a pandemic scenario in today’s cities, they would be overrun with rats too. The streets in Manhattan would literally be impassible with garbage and rat populations would begin to grow exponentially if pickup stopped for 1 month.

[silverleaf]

so much for checking passengers for fever at the airports and then letting them board aircraft ...

[The Right wing Infidel]

Yersinia pestis is what is considered by far the most likely explanation of the black death and thats a bacteria not a virus like ebola

[MeshugeMikey]

as I suspected..

we Can’t Say AFRICAN -AMERICAN Death either I suppose

such a predicament.

[T-Bone Texan]

"...all three cause a cytokine storm and turn the body’s immune system against the body itself...."

You reference a "cytokine storm".

There is some historical/anecdotal evidence that ingesting tea made from elderberries reduces the bodies' production of cytokines and thus reduces the fever period by about 2 days.

Have you ever heard this thoery?

I still have a bag of dried elderberries in my pantry. They are bitter, and kinda reminiscent of cranberries. I consider them part of my survival kit.

[null and void]

The game of Ebola Roulette continues...

*click* spin *click* spin *click* spin…BANG!

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[null and void]

5. Forty-Day Quarantines

Ebola's course of infection lasts around 37 days according to Dr. Duncan and Dr. Scott. This includes a 10 day incubation period followed by a 22 day infectious period whereby the person could be infectious but not exhibit symptoms. In the last five days the most gruesome symptoms appear in people. The 37-day estimate fits nicely with the 40-day quarantines carried out in Europe during the Black Death. Quarantine efforts in Europe were successful according to the two doctors. Sanctioning off infected families effectively "stopped the spread [of disease]." The 40-day period would have allowed for Ebola to run its course, eliminating the possibility of seemingly healthy people from infecting others during the initial 32-day period. Rats, on the other hand, would have ignored the quarantines. Thus, quarantines of plague victims could not have been as successful as an Ebola quarantine since rats are independent creatures; rats would have still been able to infect people despite a quarantine.