Star Trib polls always run 5 points Left of reality. If they have Romney in the MOE, he is actually winning.
Star Tribune no longer does its own polls. I believe they now use mason Dixon.
The rumor I heard is that the MN poll has Obama up by only 47-44. But we can’t just assume that the poll is as left-leaning as the Red Star polls from prior years—Mason-Dixon is polling for the Red Star now. This presidential poll was taken simultaneously with the voter-ID referendum poll (by M-D) released today by the Red Star, which poll shows passage voter D ahead by 53-42.
If Obama truly is up by only 47-44 in MN with a couple of weeks left, then I think that he probably takes the state (plus WI and IA).