FOX News is all over the place these days. The commie libs have them on the run.
1. Registered voters, not likely voters,
2. Oversampling Dems
I’ve been hearing this on the radio all day.
Lie to the pollsters about voting for the black guy because you don't want them to think you are racist.
I doubt everyone polled is telling the truth.
Obama acts like a socialist dictator, and that’s an excellent reason to get him out of office.
What would Obama have to do to be disliked? Express his love for America and our Constitution?
Stealing an election thru voter fraud and voting machine manipulation is hard to swallow without statistical support going into the election.
He could be. Let’s hope your gut is more right than this poll.
Byron York made a good point on tonight’s Brett Baier show about the polling in our fair state: Obama has outspent Romney in Ohio by something like 4 to 1 over the last month, and the Romney campaign believes this is Obama’s high water mark. In essence, if Brak is polling 47% in Ohio now, he gets 47% in November.
Obama is not up 9 in Ohio, that is absurd. The same poll showed Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, but losing major support in both Ohio and Florida.
That said, the national polls are showing movement to the Kenyan over the last couple of weeks. Americans apparently now love amnesty for illegals and gay pride celebrations in the military.
That poll oversampled DemocRATs. If it weren’t for Cleveland, Obama would be toast in Ohio.
Arizona, for instance is still way out of the margin of error in favor of Romney.
North Carolina, on the other hand, was oustide of the margin of error in 2008, but today's Rasmussen poll puts it at only a few points apart, which is huge from a probability perspective.
So, currently even though I show it deterministically tied in the electoral college, Romney's probability of winning is still stuck between 25%-30%.
I need more Rasmussen polls. He has only put out about 2 or 3 state polls in the last 3 weeks.
-PJ
1. Look at sample and determine the who/what of it. Should be clear to interpret WTH it really says.
2. Without a "horse race" no one will watch any of the LSM channels, so they need to keep the storyline going.
3. The true pollsters will start to break soon enough, so watch for them, but take it all with a grain of salt. A lot of the polling polls (?) only rate them on their "last poll before the election" for accuracy. Too many alternate web sites are keeping them in check, so the ones that want to remain as unpartisan as possible, will be the first to break with more accurate polls. Until then, even the outer lying polls are factored into RCP and 538, etc. Along with Adult Voters (least accurate) Registered Voters (semi accurate for long term, large scale shifts and Likely Voters, more accurate as long as sample size and skew are factored in.
M2C.
Think of it as a baseball game with 50 innings where the score on each inning is about 15-0 and the number of innings each candidate is ahead in is even.
Polls of all adults will be better for obomo....polls of registered voters will move in Romney’s direction....polls of likely voters will yield the most accurate results and will generally be a better indication of Romney’s real support. Rassmussen polls likely voters, his polls are good.
Showing a little behind in the polls is good for Romney’s fund raising.