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Ohio (polling madness ?)

Posted on 06/27/2012 5:06:37 PM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative

Fox News just flashed a poll that showed Obama up 9 points in Ohio. I can assure you that Obama is not up 9 points in this state. Maybe 2 or 3 points.

But that brings me to a bigger question

Why are the state polls not matching up with the national polls that show it about tied ?


TOPICS: Local News; Miscellaneous; Society
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 06/27/2012 5:06:42 PM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

FOX News is all over the place these days. The commie libs have them on the run.


2 posted on 06/27/2012 5:08:57 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (America! The big pinata!)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

1. Registered voters, not likely voters,
2. Oversampling Dems


3 posted on 06/27/2012 5:08:57 PM PDT by expat2
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

I’ve been hearing this on the radio all day.


4 posted on 06/27/2012 5:09:13 PM PDT by CharlotteVRWC
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative
The Wilder/Bradley effect.

Lie to the pollsters about voting for the black guy because you don't want them to think you are racist.

5 posted on 06/27/2012 5:11:06 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: expat2

Yes, the people who do the polling for FOX are not as `fair and balanced` as the people who have the shows on FOX


6 posted on 06/27/2012 5:13:10 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

I doubt everyone polled is telling the truth.


7 posted on 06/27/2012 5:14:29 PM PDT by popdonnelly (The first priority is get Obama out of the White House.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Obama acts like a socialist dictator, and that’s an excellent reason to get him out of office.


8 posted on 06/27/2012 5:16:12 PM PDT by popdonnelly (The first priority is get Obama out of the White House.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Remember that in SC, polls taken the day before the election had gay marriage winning big. Once voters had their opportunity to express their true feelings in secret, it was massive the other way.


9 posted on 06/27/2012 5:18:33 PM PDT by JPG (Don't just talk about it, make it happen.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

What would Obama have to do to be disliked? Express his love for America and our Constitution?


10 posted on 06/27/2012 5:28:56 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Stealing an election thru voter fraud and voting machine manipulation is hard to swallow without statistical support going into the election.


11 posted on 06/27/2012 5:29:46 PM PDT by blackdog (There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

No such thing happened in 2008. Why would it be different now? The so-called Wilder/Bradley Effect is historical (1980s) and applied to only subsections of the whole country (CA, NYC). Even then it is of dubious value.


12 posted on 06/27/2012 5:43:47 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: blackdog

Soros is paying off the pollsters?


13 posted on 06/27/2012 5:44:29 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: popdonnelly

“I doubt everyone polled is telling the truth.”

Right. That’s why hundreds are typically polled to minimize that impact.


14 posted on 06/27/2012 5:45:25 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

He could be. Let’s hope your gut is more right than this poll.


15 posted on 06/27/2012 5:46:02 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost

I don’t know. its a sick feeling...

I like your screen name. But I think George Washington’s real ghost would be using some profanity and yelling at us..


16 posted on 06/27/2012 5:47:19 PM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Byron York made a good point on tonight’s Brett Baier show about the polling in our fair state: Obama has outspent Romney in Ohio by something like 4 to 1 over the last month, and the Romney campaign believes this is Obama’s high water mark. In essence, if Brak is polling 47% in Ohio now, he gets 47% in November.


17 posted on 06/27/2012 5:50:51 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (What did the President know and when did he know it?)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Obama is not up 9 in Ohio, that is absurd. The same poll showed Romney gaining ground in Pennsylvania, but losing major support in both Ohio and Florida.

That said, the national polls are showing movement to the Kenyan over the last couple of weeks. Americans apparently now love amnesty for illegals and gay pride celebrations in the military.


18 posted on 06/27/2012 5:50:51 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: JPG

You mean North Carolina? Actually I think the last few polls released before the vote had the Marriage Amendment winning comfortably by double-digits. Even so, it is true that the Amendment’s ultimate 21 point victory was higher than any poll had it winning by.

The only poll I can remember showing majority opposition to the Amendment was some poll done by, I think, Elon. It was so wrong, and such an outlier, that its hard to believe that it wasn’t fixed.


19 posted on 06/27/2012 5:54:48 PM PDT by Aetius
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To: comebacknewt

Almost forgot. They also apparently now love gun running operations and the Presidential cover-ups that follow.


20 posted on 06/27/2012 5:55:30 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

That poll oversampled DemocRATs. If it weren’t for Cleveland, Obama would be toast in Ohio.


21 posted on 06/27/2012 5:56:00 PM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.)
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To: Norman Bates
That remains to be seen, doesn't it?
22 posted on 06/27/2012 5:59:08 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative
Interestingly, my analysis of Rasmussen state-by-state polls currently has the election tied at 269-269. Many of the states in my model are still using 2008 election results, because Rasmussen hasn't polled them yet. This week's polls have not flipped any states, just reinforced 2008 results.

Arizona, for instance is still way out of the margin of error in favor of Romney.

North Carolina, on the other hand, was oustide of the margin of error in 2008, but today's Rasmussen poll puts it at only a few points apart, which is huge from a probability perspective.

So, currently even though I show it deterministically tied in the electoral college, Romney's probability of winning is still stuck between 25%-30%.

I need more Rasmussen polls. He has only put out about 2 or 3 state polls in the last 3 weeks.

-PJ

23 posted on 06/27/2012 6:00:16 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: Aetius
Doh! Thanks, I meant NC but my fingers refused to type correctly.
24 posted on 06/27/2012 6:07:59 PM PDT by JPG (Don't just talk about it, make it happen.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative
a few things;

1. Look at sample and determine the who/what of it. Should be clear to interpret WTH it really says.

2. Without a "horse race" no one will watch any of the LSM channels, so they need to keep the storyline going.

3. The true pollsters will start to break soon enough, so watch for them, but take it all with a grain of salt. A lot of the polling polls (?) only rate them on their "last poll before the election" for accuracy. Too many alternate web sites are keeping them in check, so the ones that want to remain as unpartisan as possible, will be the first to break with more accurate polls. Until then, even the outer lying polls are factored into RCP and 538, etc. Along with Adult Voters (least accurate) Registered Voters (semi accurate for long term, large scale shifts and Likely Voters, more accurate as long as sample size and skew are factored in.

M2C.

25 posted on 06/27/2012 6:07:59 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative
Why are the state polls not matching up with the national polls that show it about tied?

Think of it as a baseball game with 50 innings where the score on each inning is about 15-0 and the number of innings each candidate is ahead in is even.

26 posted on 06/27/2012 6:14:32 PM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
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To: BigEdLB
The polls cited by FoxNews, on their Special Report and, perhaps more importantly, on their very biased and somewhat insulting radio digests are totally out of sync with reality. They are clearly flawed but, also more importantly, irrelevant at this point.

Professional campaigners pay for rolling polls and they should pay careful attention to those to know the truth. Either campaigns are in touch with the situation, the vectors and movements, or they are not. It does no good for the rest of us to worry about it. If a campaign isn't running scared regardless of what the polls say, good or bad, it's not being run right.

27 posted on 06/27/2012 6:20:05 PM PDT by Prospero
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To: Prospero

i just received a aflcio poll. i answered every single question WRONG.
race party age income voting record.


28 posted on 06/27/2012 6:25:57 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: Prospero

i just received a aflcio poll. i answered every single question WRONG.
race party age income voting record.


29 posted on 06/27/2012 6:26:03 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: Prospero

i just received a aflcio poll. i answered every single question WRONG.
race party age income voting record.


30 posted on 06/27/2012 6:27:49 PM PDT by Donnafrflorida (Thru HIM all things are possible.)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

We’re not allowed to use profanity against 0bama. We’re just going to allow him to destroy our country because we feared being called ‘racist’. That’s going to read funny is the history books, but.. It happened.


31 posted on 06/27/2012 6:29:03 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Polls of all adults will be better for obomo....polls of registered voters will move in Romney’s direction....polls of likely voters will yield the most accurate results and will generally be a better indication of Romney’s real support. Rassmussen polls likely voters, his polls are good.


32 posted on 06/27/2012 7:01:19 PM PDT by citizen (Obomo blames:Arab Spring,Banks,Big Oil,Bush,Ceos,Coal,Euro Zone,FNC,Jpn Tsunami,T Party,Wall St,You)
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

Showing a little behind in the polls is good for Romney’s fund raising.


33 posted on 06/27/2012 8:05:50 PM PDT by pallis
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