Posted on 10/25/2008 3:13:58 PM PDT by klimeckg
What would another great depression look like anyway?
The great depression was way before my time and whenever I hear the words "great depression" the black and white documentary photographs by Walker Evens run through my mind. I can't relate to it, it's a thing of the past in history books. Unemployment, agriculture, industry & labor were all affected and this brought in the New Deal.
Ok, so today I was with my family in our 5 mile radius subdivision which ranged from incomes of 40K - 350K. We sat in a fast food chain for breakfast. Just 1 mile west of us, were mansions with 5 car garages and just 2 miles south of us were what some people would consider the white trash area. The cars that came through the drive through were minivans, Lexus', Nissans', Chevy Colbalt's and Escalades. It was a big mixture. Observing my surroundings, I asked myself, "If we were in another "great depression", what would it look like? How would I recognize it? How could the banks reposes all the cars that people can't pay on? What would happen to all the stuff on the shelves at Wal-Mart and Target? What happens to public safety if the citizens can't pay city taxes? Will the police and fireman and hospitals only protect and serve the wealthy? Will the public school teachers continue to teach, or will they only teach the children who pay for it? And what about energy, yea, energy, if we all are unemployed, who pays to keep the lights on?
If it's on the horizon like the socialists in Washington are screaming, where are the signs, because I just don't see people batting down the hatches! I mean, if the radio warned us of a category 5 hurricane coming our way, people would be boarding up their homes and evacuating the area. Aren't we in a crisis now, unemployment is high and we are just starting read about the major businesses reducing their forces (RIF). Yet, we seem complacent and untouched by it, as we reach for our wallets and pay the bill at our local restaurant. I just got home with $150.00 less in my wallet because I had to buy clothes for my kids. Maybe I should return them and tell my family that we are going to have to learn to live a little bit differently for awhile until things improve. If something does happen, or if it's already happening, it has a different face on it and the majority of us are not paying attention. We are Americans and we come out of things stronger, that's our nature, our culture.
This financial crisis happened because of the socialists in power, i.e. Pelosi, Reid, Frank, Dodd, and Schumer, and Obama (unfortunately, Ted Kennedy is missing out and fighting for his life with our money). This financial collapse was inevitable and I don't think any politician can fix it, McCain or Obama. I do feel in my gut, that Obama will only make it worse, seeing that it was brought into fruition by his party and they seem to want another "Great Depression" .
The Great Depression came during an analog time with hardly any innovation. In today's digital world, in THE Country of Innovation, whatever comes on us due to the financial crisis we are facing, it will not be recognized until we are deep into it and I can't fathom what the environment around me will be like.
—for one thing, in the ‘thirties, over half the population of the U.S. was still basically agricultural—lots of folks could help farm or at least visit country cousins for food-—
You really need to talk to some ppl who lived through the Great Depression. My Mom (had) and my Dad (does) have some interesting things to say. People today would not have survived it, I don’t think.
FDR’s 100 days vs. the 100 days under a RE-PO-BO super-controlled legal system.
Imagine.
Camps, anyone?
Well, I know I would have chickens in my backyard and a garden.
Bookmarking for later.
I thought Argentina’s economy has been doing pretty good since 2002. No?
Agriculture had been in a depression since the 1920’s. The market for US grain during WW I dried up. By the 1930’s a drought in the Great Plains made things even worse. They called it the “Dirty Thirties” because of the dust storms. My grandfather sent a load of grain to market and received a bill for the balance of the shipping; the grain sold for less than the cost of freight. But, you are correct, at lest there was something to eat on the farm. I do not think today’s generations would have the sand to do what my parents and grand parents did to survive.
That you saw people going through a fast food drive through in Escalades and Lexuses (Lexii?) is one indication. They’re cutting back. The local “McCafe” in my suburban/exurban area of the county is booming, the busiest place for miles around, on a Saturday night. It’s surrounded by newish, $500K+ houses, in a state where that’s still a whole lot of house. The better places are extremely easy to get into, and are beginning to look a little empty, when they should be busy. This downscaling will continue.
Wal-Mart and Target will do OK as a whole, people in general will still have to buy basic things, and will scrape and save if they have to, for the occasional “splurge.” It’s just the price of that splurge that will diminish, and continue to do so. It’s the Macys and the Nordstroms that you need to worry about. The Macys nearest me, an unusual, freestanding one, has shortened its hours and does not even leave the exterior lights on at night anymore.
One example of extremes due to the depression would be Asheville, NC. That town was going through boom times right up to the late twenties, with lavish summer homes and stunning buildings going up left and right in the downtown area. Art Deco galore, beautifully restored by now. But, the reason that it was still there, unmolested all these years, is that Asheville collapsed, with many of these palatial buildings boarded up or taken over by the federal government. The Grove Arcade, for one, was home to an agency dealing with climatological data, right up until fairly recently. Look for situations such as this in other, former boomtowns.
But, you’ve got to remember that, as dire as unemployment was during the Great Depression, 75% of the people continued to be employed. Some even prospered. If we are to experience such a deep downturn again, this will likely still be the case.
The agricultural portion was almost worse.
When you hear “25 per cent unemployment”, remember in those days they didn’t count farm families. Prices cratered, so much so that farmers couldn’t afford to take their crops, milk, eggs, etc, to market. Top it off with a serious drought aka “dust bowl” and a scarcity of cash for anything.
Country stores were still taking payments for debts made in the 30s well into the 60s, maybe later I dunno.
—and ,unfortunately, many of the grand and great grandchildren of the people of the “thirties still think that Herbert Hoover went farm-to-farm making them poor—and reflexively vote Democrap to this day—
Then there was an industrial Recession about 1930. Such things usually last about a year. The government met that crisis by tightening credit and raising import taxes (which precipitated foreign countries raising import taxes against our products).
Then, in 1932 the New Deal was swept into office. It continued to restrict credit, let manufacturing business go bankrupt and kept the Smoot Hawley taxes in force (you should read about them), and, then, worst of all, failed to notice we were facing a FAMINE caused by the worst drought in modern American history.
Most of Oklahoma had blown away before Congress acted and no one knows if FDR ever acknowledged that problem.
By that time the Great Depression was underway and the Democrats did nothing whatsoever to put an end to it.
Phase IV occurred the day Ronald Reagan was elected President. He ended the Great Depression and the New Deal in one fell swoop. Tariffs were dropped. Taxes were dropped. Prosperity returned.
Well, for city dwellers, there are plenty of cats and dogs. Enjoy.
“What Would Another Great Depression Look Like Anyway?”
It would look like a Mad Max movie only with less leather and more guns.
My nightmare is the just-in-time supply chain failing, due to inability to obtain credit, fuel supply disruption, terrorist attack or natural disaster. City dwellers picking through garbage until that’s gone, then raid the inner suburbs ... eventually it’s long pig time. Hopefully they’ll have killed each other off, before they ever get out my way. That’s my nightmare. I pray it’ll never come to that.
The current games that are being played with unemployment statistics can’t be applied to the way unemployment was calculated then. Did the unemployment figures capture every single person who wanted work but could not find it? No, it didn’t, probably not even close. But, if you’re working from the assumption of 25% unemployment, then you’re looking at 75% employment, as employment was defined at that time. Our current unemployment numbers do not count the “discouraged,” as you noted, independent contractors or illegal aliens. The last two have served to mask just how much job loss there has been in the past year, imho.
You would see even more houses abandoned. Formerly middle-income families living in humble apartments; people who used to live in humble apartments now living in cars.
In the thirties, my 99-year-old mother-in-law tells me, many people lived outdoors, in tent encampments. They kept warm and cooked with campfires. They wore rags. They were not ashamed to go from door to door, begging for food in exchange for a little work—sweeping, shovelling, scrubbing floors, whatever they could put a hand to.
My father-in-law, a baker, found a former executive living in a packing crate not far from their house, brought him home, and befriended him. This kind of fall from financial comfort was far from unusual.
Many families broke up when Father went off to try to find work or food and left Mom and the kids behind.
They tell me that this was also the time when the salesman was king. Back before TV and internet advertising, before “marketing” courses and p.r. agencies, a man had to be pretty good at selling in order to make a living at it. But the man who really could sell did very well and kept his family together. A good salesman who could sell even in hard times was valued.
One difference between the days of the Great Depression and now: back then, no community organization stopped you from having chickens, a goat, maybe even a cow in your suburban or city back yard. If you had a quarter or an eighth of an acre, you grew vegetables and collected those eggs, either to sell or to cook with, and ate the chickens when they didn’t produce well. Today most suburbanites don’t have the legal right to do that; if they try, they’ll land in court. So in this way we don’t have the option of cutting back on food purchases.
We do have one advantage: in many areas the woods are overflowing with excellent dinners. Deer were not so plentiful back in the thirties as they are now.
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