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To: Scutter

“However, to say that the “likely voter” polls are deliberately biased is to say that capitalism doesn’t work.”

It depends on how they define “likely voters”.

It used to be that they considered the record of their votes, i.e., did they actually vote in the past several presidential elections. Now, it seems they ask the voters whether they are likely to vote in this election, and 89% say they are 90-100% sure they will vote, but the turn out is never that large. I saw this in some internals, where the they did it exactly this way. Maybe not all polls do it this way, but some do.


45 posted on 10/12/2008 8:27:54 AM PDT by FocusNexus ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: FocusNexus

They may be entirely wrong in their predictions, but the point is that the pollsters are trying to get it right. If they are just choosing algorithms based on bias, they will be consistently wrong, and over time they will lose business. It’s a market-driven situation. To deny the polls by saying they are biased is to deny reality. Denying reality is never a good thing. We need to wake up and figure out how to win, or at a minimum prepare for the bad times.


60 posted on 10/12/2008 8:32:56 AM PDT by Scutter
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