Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
April 13, 2024, will be etched in the annals of modern Japanese history as tens of thousands of citizens across the nation came together in a series of pandemic rallies. The protests centered on the widespread opposition to the Pandemic Treaty, with escalating concerns over “infectious disease” and “public health” becoming potent tools for an unprecedented push towards what is perceived by many as a totalitarian surveillance society.
The protest not just opposed potential mandatory vaccinations but also the perceived overreach of health authorities and their ties with global pharma, echoing a distressing sentiment of disenfranchisement among the populace. Demonstrators criticized the lack of explanations for a sharp increase in excess deaths and demanded accountability and clarity on vaccine-related casualties.
https://www.aussie17.com/p/developing-massive-rallies-break
OBSERVATION - I don’t think the WHO will have an easy sell on their pandemic “treaty”. Remember, next month is “d day” for the WHO globalist attack on our freedoms.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Well, the A 15 protests kicked off as announced, blocking roadways and airport access at many large cities across the nation. I noted the April 15 protests in the Apr 12th FR post. In many cases, police just sat around and watched the protestors do their thing. Only in a few instances did police quickly and aggressively remove protestors - most notably in Florida. The binding theme of the protests was stopping the Gaza war.
Besides blocking freeways, Police shot pepper balls to repel pro-Palestine extremists trying to rush and attack the Tesla production facility in Fremont, Calif. The plant was closed in an emergency to protect people working there.
In many instances, the number of protestors were relatively few - but those numbers were more than adequate to tie up traffic with police inaction.
The group that ‘organized’ these protests is essentially brand new and little know about them. I suspect that some serious dark money source(s) is at play here given the logistics and planning necessary to get these nonproductive people to sit in a road.
Other analysts are noting that the protest locations seem to have hit interstate ‘nodes’ not only blocking local traffic, but impeding interstate traffic as well.
The success of yesterday’s protests may well be a harbinger for more of the same for the elections in Nov and a potential Trump presidency.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
An example of a lone wolf attack hits Australia -
A 15-year-old boy has been arrested after at least four people, including a prominent and controversial bishop, were injured in a stabbing at a church in Sydney on Monday.
Police said they were treating the attack as a terror incident.
“We believe there are elements that are satisfied in terms of religious motivated extremism,” New South Wales state Police Commissioner Karen Webb said at a press conference on Tuesday.
He has now been taken to an undisclosed location due to fears for his safety.
OBSERVATION - More info, the attacker is a moslem and cried Allah Ackbar during the attack. Police arrested and then protected him from a crowd estimated to be in the range of 5000 who were ready to deal judgement on the spot. The attacker used a relatively short bladed knife (about 3 inches). Globally, there has been an apparent increase in mass attacks using knives.
These kinds of lone wolf attacks can easily happen here in the US.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Army deploys Typhon missile system to the Philippines for its inaugural Indo-Pacific deployment The Typhon system, can fire Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles, and can range the Taiwan region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Former President Donald Trump’s trial for alleged hush money payments to Stormy Daniels officially got underway on Monday as jury selection began. Judge Juan Merchan is overseeing the case, which has Trump accused of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.
No jurors were selected yesterday
OBSERVATION - I’ll leave the other FR threads to cover this discussion. Bottom line is that this is another kangaroo court that is forcing Trump to divert time and resources away from his campaign to deal with. Liberal lawyers like Dershiwitz and Turley are banging their heads against the wall over the ridiculous and essentially illegal prosecution moves.
***
House voted 259-128 to prevent reconsideration of last week’s FISA 702 bill.
H.R. 7888 is being sent to the Senate without the amendment to end warrantless spying on Americans.
Our constitution is dying a death of a thousand cuts.
***
A dozen Republican-led states plan to send a letter to Bank of America demanding an explanation for why it allegedly de-banked Christian and other conservative groups.
The letter obtained first by DailyMail.com, led by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach, demands that the financial institution turn over documents related to its account cancellation policies and requested that the bank update its terms of services to not discriminate against clients with certain political or religious beliefs.
The notice comes after it was revealed that Bank of America sent the FBI and U.S. Treasury private consumer financial data to help the agencies investigate crimes related to the January 6 Capitol protest.
OBSERVATION - I vowed never to deal with BoA decades ago due to their rotten customer service. History shows they are in the pockets of the deep state. Don’t hold your breath that they will respond in a timely and accurate manner to these AGs.
Additional note - this action plays into the developing CW2 scenarios.
Illegal Immigration –
March CBP data indicate that more than 137,000 encounters of migrants crossing illegally. This puts the first half of FY 24 past 1,000,000 total encounters. This doesn’t include ‘got aways’.
***
Texas law enforcement has been using pepper balls along the El Paso border region to disperse crowds of illegals pressing recently installed fencing as well as testing other areas.. Arrests are also indicating that the illegals are increasingly armed, primarily with knives and clubs during these aggressive episodes.
***
Nearly 1.2 million foreign nationals are safe from deportation thanks to President Biden’s expansion of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) eligibility.
This is a move Biden has taken since he came into office. He has added several countries to the TPS list. For example, almost half a million Venezuelans received expanded amnesty protection in 2021. Biden’s record has surpassed previous levels of expanding amnesty for foreign nationals, increasing the foreign-born population in the United States to a record high of an estimate of over 51 million. That surpasses previous levels that go back to 1970.
https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/04/15/biden-expands-temporary-amnesty-to-12-million-illegal-aliens-n3786521#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Moves to ‘anchor’ and make deportation even more difficult should Trump take over the WH this fall.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Russia may lose its ability to carry out offensive operations in Ukraine by 2025 because of a shortage of armored vehicles. Russia lost thousands of its most modern tanks during the first few months of fighting in Ukraine. Since then, Russia has relied on older tanks stored in pre-1991 arms storage facilities. These elderly tanks are one of the primary sources of tanks that allow Russian troops to continue fighting despite massive combat losses. Russia has been withdrawing tanks, other armored vehicles, and artillery from these storage sites since late 2022. These weapons were produced from the late 1940s through the 1970s. Most of these armored vehicles and artillery were withdrawn from service decades ago. Now these weapons are being refurbished so they can return to battlefield operations. Weapons that are too decrepit to return to combat are cannibalized for spare parts for use by weapons factories as well as army weapons repair facilities close to the combat zone.
These storage facilities are being stripped of all usable combat vehicles, including those only used for spare parts. These stockpiles cannot be replenished because of the demands for combat vehicles to fight in Ukraine and the inability of the Russian weapons industries to produce enough new or reconditioned armored vehicles. If the fighting in Ukraine maintains its high level of combat intensity and heavy Russian losses continue in 2024, it will be much harder for the Russian army to maintain its military power for offensive operations in 2025. That means the conventional Russian military threat to other nations in the region is much more limited.
The shortage of Russian weapons reserves plus new weapons production means as long as Ukraine continues to receive military assistance from NATO countries, Russia will soon have fewer weapons than the Ukrainians. Most Russian forces in Ukraine are already on the defensive and Russia has been able to carry out fewer and fewer offensive operations. Russian losses in Ukraine were higher than expected because Ukraine innovated and produced thousands of relatively cheap UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) and USV (Unmanned Surface Vessels) to dominate the battlefield on land and sea. Half the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been disabled or destroyed by USVs and the surviving ships have moved to distant ports to avoid destruction.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/2024041601116.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 Russian Shahed drones overnight. An unspecified missile strike reported in Poltava.
Russia continues to press the attack toward Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
With the ‘deep war’ at a lull, the crushing grind along the eastern front continues with Russia pyrrhic gains. Main focus of the fight continues to be in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut regions.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas offers 20 hostages in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
- International suspense on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israeli govt sources saying that the Rafah operation was delayed due to the Iranian attack, but that preparations are continuing, focusing first on getting non-combatants out of the town before the main attack hits.
***
Israeli war cabinet has given go ahead for strikes on Iran and it appear that Netanyahu and other leaders are refusing to receive diplomatic calls to hold fire. Strong inferences seen that Israel is trying to craft an attack that hurts Iran and likely some proxy forces but is restrained to the extent to limit Iranian escalation.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of.
Israeli air strikes, artillery and naval gunfire hits all regions of Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army announced that the Northern Command is conducting field exercises that include plans to respond to any possible scenarios
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Global hand wringing over the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran. Indicators suggest a plan has been approved, but may be getting one more tweak.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Hapag-Lloyd Shipping Company: The crisis in the Red Sea continues and the diversion of ships will continue
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran President Raisi told the Emir of Qatar that Tehran “will respond to any action against its interests” after Israel said it will respond to its drones and missiles attack.
***
Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of instigating the conflict in Gaza to undermine progress in reaching a normalization agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem.
In an interview with Israeli public broadcaster Kan News on Sunday, a source from the royal family also said that Tehran promotes terrorism and suggested that Riyadh played a role in thwarting Saturday night’s drone and missile attack against Israel by the Islamic Republic and its proxies.
Notably, a recap of the interview is published prominently on the House of Saud website, which covers the royal family.
“Iran is a nation that endorses terrorism, and the world should have curtailed it much earlier,” the Saudi royal said.
——— FORECAST ————————-
We are in a renewed period of Israel is ready to push the button. An interesting factoid popped up yesterday and that is Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day. Big parades and such. Interesting way Israel could celebrate that event would be with its counter strike. Just thinking.
Much of the world recognizes , as I, the real opportunity Israel has to hit key Iranian nuclear sites. This may be the best opportunity to do so.
As noted above, there is a lot of pressure on Israel to dial back any counter strike in an effort to prevent any further escalation in the region. Speculation is high that the war cabinet is taking that into consideration.
As with Iran, disinformation and propaganda is abundant from both sides, so just when Israel pulls the trigger won’t really be known until it starts.
I think Israel response - provided it is successful, unlikely Irans attack - could put Iran back in its box for a while and allow refocus on Hamas and eventually Hezbollah. The ineffectiveness of Iran to seriously touch Israel would be deterrent made stronger by an Israeli strike.
Iran has created a minor distraction for Hamas, who’s latest hostage release offer is trying to leverage Israel’s dealings with Iran to its advantage. 20 hostages offered for release for essentially an Israeli surrender is not going to fly. I strongly suspect that after this impending Iranian strike, we will see the wheels really get in gear for the entrance into Rafah and Hama’s last stand.
In the interim, Israel has been continuing to nail Hamas et al groups throughout the rest of Gaza as they try to regroup.
The “Islamic Resistance” influence in the fight appears to be greatly diminished over the past few weeks. Attacks in the Red Sea are way down, though the Houthi threat remains. Pro-Iran proxy militias in Syria and Iraq have largely been quiet as well, and interestingly having to deal more with ISIS than US forces.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.
Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”
The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.
***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.
As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.
That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan
You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.
Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.
OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.
I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.
Economy-
Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.
The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.
“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.
***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.
Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.
The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.
According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.
OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php
***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.
Biden / Harris Watch –
(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”
Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.
OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.
Illegal Immigration –
Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.
***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.
In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.
During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period
OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.
China –
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.
With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.
Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.
In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.
More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.
The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853
OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.
Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.
However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .
Outlook —
Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.
***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.
“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.
“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.
“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/
***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.
Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.
OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.
The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.
In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.
The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.
One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.
Purim this year is April 22-30
Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.
Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.
As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.
Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.
Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.
Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.
The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.
***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:
“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.
Syria -
ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.
OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.
Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”
The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.
***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.
As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.
That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan
You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.
Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.
OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.
I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.
Economy-
Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.
The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.
“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.
***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.
Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.
The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.
According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.
OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php
***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.
Biden / Harris Watch –
(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”
Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.
OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.
Illegal Immigration –
Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.
***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.
In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.
During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period
OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.
China –
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.
With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.
Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.
In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.
More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.
The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853
OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.
Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.
However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .
Outlook —
Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.
***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.
“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.
“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.
“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/
***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.
Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.
OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.
The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.
In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.
The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.
One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.
Purim this year is April 22-30
Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.
Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.
As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.
Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.
Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.
Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.
The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.
***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:
“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.
Syria -
ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.
OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.