Tax day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Klaus Schwab, 86, has reportedly been hospitalized and is in serious and critical condition.
Further details surrounding his hospitalization remain unconfirmed at this time.
With any luck the bugs will soon be eating him.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
When Israel conducts its counter attack against Iran - expect vigorous and violent protests by the pro-hamas, pro -iran leftists.
Economy-
Impact from kalifornia’s minimum wage laws is tearing through the fast food sector like a plague of locust. Thousands have been laid off, thousands more have their jobs endangered, entire franchise chains have closed.
***
Oil prices fell on Monday after after Iran’s reprisal attack on Israel over the weekend.
Brent crude - a key benchmark for oil prices internationally - was lower but still trading close to $90 a barrel on Monday morning.
Prices had already risen in expectation of action by Iran, with Brent crude nearing a six-month high last week.
Analysts said the markets would be looking to see how the conflict could affect global supply chains.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68812949
OBSERVATION - Volatility is the word for the next week or so. Iran has threatened countries that supported Israel against their attack, and threatening oil traffic thru the Gulf region is one commonly used revenge tactic they’ve applied over the years.
***
Speaking of tax day, here is some of the joy biden intends to spread next year.
Biden has also made his plan clear: He wants to wallop Americans with a $5 trillion tax increase.
Biden’s written plan calls for a small business tax hike, a corporate tax hike, a capital gains and dividends tax hike, income tax hikes, energy tax hikes and even a second Death Tax on top of the first one.
Biden would increase the corporate income tax from today’s 21% to 28%. That’s a higher tax rate than communist China and France and the U.K., each at 25%.
Now add the average state corporate income tax at 4% and the average combined Biden rate would be 32%. That would be the second-highest corporate income tax in the developed world. Just below Colombia.
Households bear the burden of the corporate income tax in the form of higher prices and slower wage growth. Companies do not simply absorb the tax, it is passed on to all of us.
Biden also promises to increase the tax on Subchapter S corporations, partnerships and all “pass through” businesses, most of them small businesses, to 39.6%. These employers pay their taxes through the personal income tax rate, not the corporate rate.
Biden’s budget promises to increase the federal capital gains tax to 44.6%, the highest rate in 100 years.
And all these new Biden taxes will be collected by a supersized and unreformed IRS.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/massive-tax-increases-coming-second-biden-term
OBSERVATION - Many of us have seen how wonderful these types of ‘taxes’ affect us. They are passed through by corporations. Other taxes are designed to destroy personal wealth. biden/democrats will campaign with these under the guise of ‘fairness’ and ‘equity’, totally obfuscating the fact that it will hammer their base as well as the rest of the country already struggling to make ends meet.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Today there will be a second vote to take down unconstitutional FISA
218 votes are needed to stop the bill.
We’ll see how good voter pressure has been from the weekend and how willing congress critters are to vote what their base demands.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be “within certain limits.”
OBSERVATION - I’m listing this here instead of under Israel so that it doesn’t get lost in all the other news. If this is true - it is a vile act by biden. While Biden publicly told Iran not to attack Israel. Rejected, he was still fine for them to attack Israel as long as the attack was “within certain limits.”
A president telling a hostile foreign power it is ok to attack a friendly democracy and ally. Think about it.
Now, Biden is telling Israel not to retaliate.
This is nothing other than appeasement of Iran.
Illegal Immigration –
The influx of illegal immigrants is causing chaos in some areas along the California coast, including some very upscale communities. Illegal immigrants are arriving in small boats and fleeing into communities on foot.
According to Brandon Tucker, director of Customs and Border Protection’s Air and Marine Operations in San Diego, there has been an “exponential increase in maritime smuggling.”
In fiscal year 2020, federal, state, and local law enforcement recorded 308 maritime smuggling events in the California area of responsibility, according to CBP. Last fiscal year, they recorded 736, a nearly 140% increase.
Air and Marine Operations uses planes equipped with radar and cameras to patrol above, looking for smugglers. Airborne agents are usually the first to find pangas, small fishing boats frequently used to smuggle migrants or drugs to the U.S., Tucker said. Then his team, as well as their Border Patrol and Coast Guard partners, can coordinate intercepting the boat at sea or on land.
Sometimes, CBP or the Coast Guard can stop them. Nearly 8,000 people have been apprehended while trying to enter the U.S. illegally through the Pacific Ocean, its coastlines or its inlets since 2020, data provided by CBP show.
OBSERVATION - Relatively small numbers when compared to sections of the southern border. But what is concerning is the apparent coordination of the landings with waiting transportation to ferry the illegals from the landing sites.
***
Guatemala’s Attorney General is investigating ongoing criminal claims that a number of American tax payer funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs) operating both inside and outside the United States are complicit in the ongoing trafficking, abuse and disappearance of children from its nation, according to an official Guatemalan letter obtained by this investigative columnist.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Kerch Bridge update –
Kerch bridge has been closed due to the missile threat
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Region still overshadowed by new surrounding Israel and Iran
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 Kh-59 missiles over Black Sea near Odesa. Other unspecified Russian missiles hit Dnipro city.
Russian forces continue to press Ukrainian defenses at Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Russia to continue to press its attacks in the Adviivka and Bakhmut regions, slowly clawing terrain away from Ukraine forces.
Ukraine has become increasingly vulnerable to missile and airstrikes due to ADA weapons shortages and this makes matters worse at the front.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli govt having multiple meetings to finalize retaliatory attack plans against Iran
- New evidence that Iran suffered more damage than it inflicted on Israel.
- Hamas totally rejects latest round of hostage/cease fire proposals.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
WSJ reports, citing three Western officials, that Israel is expected to soon respond to Iran’s government’s attack on Saturday
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet favors a retaliation against Iran for its mass drone and missile attack but is divided over the timing and scale of any such response, Israeli officials said on Sunday
***
Israel’s allies have urged it to avoid any escalation, as it considers a response to Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack
***
RUMINT - 50% of the Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel failed to launch or crashed before reaching their destination: Three US officials to WSJ
***
Iran summons UK, France and Germany ambassadors over their condemnation of its attack on Israel
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has approved a tenfold increase in the magnitude of strikes against Israel if Netanyahu decides to escalate the situation further
***
A senior Iranian general with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike at the beginning of April had reportedly been involved in the “planning and execution” of Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
The Iranian Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces, which has ties to the “supreme leader” of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a letter on April 3 showing “mourning and appreciation” for Mohammad Reza Zahedi, according to the U.S.-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). This letter was translated by MEMRI.
“The strategic role of the martyr Zahedi in consolidating and strengthening the resistance front, and in the planning and execution of Al-Aqsa Flood, are part of the great pride that will transform the quiet efforts of this great commander into the eternal history of the struggle against the occupation by the Zionist regime,” the Iranian group wrote, according to the MEMRI translation.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood is the name used to refer to Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack in which roughly 1,200 Israelis were left dead, and more than 200 people were taken as hostages.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/
***
Unconfirmed report from Ynet that a senior American official has stated- “Hamas rejecting the deal is just disgraceful; the offer had everything they asked for.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of.
Unconfirmed. In accordance with the situational assessment, IDF is calling up approximately two reserve brigades for operational activities on the Gazan front. Their calling will allow the continuous effort and readiness to defend the state of Israel and the security of civilians.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire across the border. Intensity levels have dropped since Friday’s attacks.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
ABC News reports that Israeli military officials have submitted a ‘wide range of options’ to respond to Iran’s attack.
Evidence coming out that Iran did more damage to its towns and cities due to malfunctioning missiles and drones than what the did to Israel.
Per U.S. officials to WSJ.
- Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target.
- Half were intercepted, the rest failed in flight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Suspicious target intercepted above Eilat, falls into the Red Sea.
Unconfirmed reports of U.S. and Coalition airstrikes on Houthi positions near the city of Taizz in Southwestern Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iraq denies agreement with Tehran on opening airspace during attack on Israel.
Iran’s foreign ministry summons ambassadors of UK, France and Germany to rebuke them over their support to Israel during Iran’s missile barrage.
The Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ayman Safadi has summoned the Chargé d’affaires of the Iranian Embassy in Amman, after threats against Jordan were presented earlier today by the Iranian Government due to the participation last night of the Royal Jordanian Air Force in the interception of Iranian one-way “suicide” drones heading towards Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
We are in a renewed period of Israel is ready to push the button, still evaluating options, etc. Part of the reverse psychology Iran played on Israel and the West. Even going as far are reporting that biden got Netanyahu to cancel a retaliatory strike.
Be assured, Israel will launch after they’ve carefully scrubbed their target list and gamed potential outcomes. Most likely before the week is over.
I’m seeing what also appears to be an effort to put down Israel’s defensive efforts. There are a number of MSM reports essentially stating that the US and allies did all the heavy lifting in destroying the drone waves. That Israel had very little to do with it.
Also, claims of a 50% failure rate being stated to account for much of the rest of the attack. There are many reports floating thru the interwebs showing damage to Iranian towns/villages from the attack. In some instances possibly due to failures. In other instances damage due to the first stages/booster separating and falling back to earth in Iran.
Currently, I’m of the view that there were failures, but not as extensive as the media is trying to portray, just like the fact that now we know a second Israeli airbase with hit with a few missiles and had a C-130 damaged. Propaganda on both sides to obscure or project desired views on the attack.
As Israel makes its final plans on its counter strike, Iran is saying they will retaliate ten fold. Some analysts are viewing such statements as hype and propaganda indicating that the strike Iran launched stretched its capabilities to the max and launching more may be beyond their ability. The attack was the largest drone/missile assault ever seen in the modern era - which says a lot right there. To multiply it by 10 would be a stretch.
Israeli target set discussions by various commentators and analysts continue to focus on the Iranian nuclear program. This is by far the greatest threat to Israel. Other targets include Iran’s oil industry. However, attacking this would throw the whole gulf region into chaos and likely ignite another oil war in the region - nasty consequences.
I personally think the strike on nuclear sites is the best option - allows Israel to concentrate fire on a few select targets rather than scattered over many others. The western world is concerned about Iran’s nuclear ambitions as well, so such a strike would gain some tacit approval as well. Israel’s ballistic and cruise missiles have the capability to accomplish that mission. Targets are a bit too far of a reach for the IAF as this time and it is questionable if Jordan or Iraq would permit overflights of Israeli jets.
Again, take a deep breath as news of ‘impending’ counter attacks float this week. I’ll try to catch indicators like I did the Iranian strike and report as I see them.
Regarding Gaza - the current situation seem that Israel is bulking up by bring up 2 reserve brigades. Facing a potential Hezbollah ground war, Israel wants to make sure it has the ground assets to finish Hamas off in Rafah. The timer is counting down for that operation.
Mark 9:47-48 And if your eye causes you to sin, tear it out. It is better for you to enter the kingdom of God with one eye than with two eyes to be thrown into hell, ‘where their worm does not die and the fire is not quenched.’
Judged by his two alleged pet themes for eternity. Getting eaten by bugs instead of eating them, and the ultimate in global warming.
Israeli counter strike update 1
I noted a lot of misdirection and propaganda surrounding Israel’s counter strike and timing. I believe I’ve seen indications that the strike will occur within the next 48 hours.
1 deliberations by leadership on extent and timing appear to be done.
2. This would lead to a short period of final preparations. Longer wait hazards OPSEC failure.
3 Israeli leadership shutting down external comms - opsec consideration.
4 unconfirmed rumors getting increased confirmation.
Could be a busy day tomorrow (night in Israel)
P
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
April 13, 2024, will be etched in the annals of modern Japanese history as tens of thousands of citizens across the nation came together in a series of pandemic rallies. The protests centered on the widespread opposition to the Pandemic Treaty, with escalating concerns over “infectious disease” and “public health” becoming potent tools for an unprecedented push towards what is perceived by many as a totalitarian surveillance society.
The protest not just opposed potential mandatory vaccinations but also the perceived overreach of health authorities and their ties with global pharma, echoing a distressing sentiment of disenfranchisement among the populace. Demonstrators criticized the lack of explanations for a sharp increase in excess deaths and demanded accountability and clarity on vaccine-related casualties.
https://www.aussie17.com/p/developing-massive-rallies-break
OBSERVATION - I don’t think the WHO will have an easy sell on their pandemic “treaty”. Remember, next month is “d day” for the WHO globalist attack on our freedoms.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Well, the A 15 protests kicked off as announced, blocking roadways and airport access at many large cities across the nation. I noted the April 15 protests in the Apr 12th FR post. In many cases, police just sat around and watched the protestors do their thing. Only in a few instances did police quickly and aggressively remove protestors - most notably in Florida. The binding theme of the protests was stopping the Gaza war.
Besides blocking freeways, Police shot pepper balls to repel pro-Palestine extremists trying to rush and attack the Tesla production facility in Fremont, Calif. The plant was closed in an emergency to protect people working there.
In many instances, the number of protestors were relatively few - but those numbers were more than adequate to tie up traffic with police inaction.
The group that ‘organized’ these protests is essentially brand new and little know about them. I suspect that some serious dark money source(s) is at play here given the logistics and planning necessary to get these nonproductive people to sit in a road.
Other analysts are noting that the protest locations seem to have hit interstate ‘nodes’ not only blocking local traffic, but impeding interstate traffic as well.
The success of yesterday’s protests may well be a harbinger for more of the same for the elections in Nov and a potential Trump presidency.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
An example of a lone wolf attack hits Australia -
A 15-year-old boy has been arrested after at least four people, including a prominent and controversial bishop, were injured in a stabbing at a church in Sydney on Monday.
Police said they were treating the attack as a terror incident.
“We believe there are elements that are satisfied in terms of religious motivated extremism,” New South Wales state Police Commissioner Karen Webb said at a press conference on Tuesday.
He has now been taken to an undisclosed location due to fears for his safety.
OBSERVATION - More info, the attacker is a moslem and cried Allah Ackbar during the attack. Police arrested and then protected him from a crowd estimated to be in the range of 5000 who were ready to deal judgement on the spot. The attacker used a relatively short bladed knife (about 3 inches). Globally, there has been an apparent increase in mass attacks using knives.
These kinds of lone wolf attacks can easily happen here in the US.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Army deploys Typhon missile system to the Philippines for its inaugural Indo-Pacific deployment The Typhon system, can fire Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles, and can range the Taiwan region.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Former President Donald Trump’s trial for alleged hush money payments to Stormy Daniels officially got underway on Monday as jury selection began. Judge Juan Merchan is overseeing the case, which has Trump accused of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.
No jurors were selected yesterday
OBSERVATION - I’ll leave the other FR threads to cover this discussion. Bottom line is that this is another kangaroo court that is forcing Trump to divert time and resources away from his campaign to deal with. Liberal lawyers like Dershiwitz and Turley are banging their heads against the wall over the ridiculous and essentially illegal prosecution moves.
***
House voted 259-128 to prevent reconsideration of last week’s FISA 702 bill.
H.R. 7888 is being sent to the Senate without the amendment to end warrantless spying on Americans.
Our constitution is dying a death of a thousand cuts.
***
A dozen Republican-led states plan to send a letter to Bank of America demanding an explanation for why it allegedly de-banked Christian and other conservative groups.
The letter obtained first by DailyMail.com, led by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach, demands that the financial institution turn over documents related to its account cancellation policies and requested that the bank update its terms of services to not discriminate against clients with certain political or religious beliefs.
The notice comes after it was revealed that Bank of America sent the FBI and U.S. Treasury private consumer financial data to help the agencies investigate crimes related to the January 6 Capitol protest.
OBSERVATION - I vowed never to deal with BoA decades ago due to their rotten customer service. History shows they are in the pockets of the deep state. Don’t hold your breath that they will respond in a timely and accurate manner to these AGs.
Additional note - this action plays into the developing CW2 scenarios.
Illegal Immigration –
March CBP data indicate that more than 137,000 encounters of migrants crossing illegally. This puts the first half of FY 24 past 1,000,000 total encounters. This doesn’t include ‘got aways’.
***
Texas law enforcement has been using pepper balls along the El Paso border region to disperse crowds of illegals pressing recently installed fencing as well as testing other areas.. Arrests are also indicating that the illegals are increasingly armed, primarily with knives and clubs during these aggressive episodes.
***
Nearly 1.2 million foreign nationals are safe from deportation thanks to President Biden’s expansion of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) eligibility.
This is a move Biden has taken since he came into office. He has added several countries to the TPS list. For example, almost half a million Venezuelans received expanded amnesty protection in 2021. Biden’s record has surpassed previous levels of expanding amnesty for foreign nationals, increasing the foreign-born population in the United States to a record high of an estimate of over 51 million. That surpasses previous levels that go back to 1970.
https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/04/15/biden-expands-temporary-amnesty-to-12-million-illegal-aliens-n3786521#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Moves to ‘anchor’ and make deportation even more difficult should Trump take over the WH this fall.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Logistics –
Russia may lose its ability to carry out offensive operations in Ukraine by 2025 because of a shortage of armored vehicles. Russia lost thousands of its most modern tanks during the first few months of fighting in Ukraine. Since then, Russia has relied on older tanks stored in pre-1991 arms storage facilities. These elderly tanks are one of the primary sources of tanks that allow Russian troops to continue fighting despite massive combat losses. Russia has been withdrawing tanks, other armored vehicles, and artillery from these storage sites since late 2022. These weapons were produced from the late 1940s through the 1970s. Most of these armored vehicles and artillery were withdrawn from service decades ago. Now these weapons are being refurbished so they can return to battlefield operations. Weapons that are too decrepit to return to combat are cannibalized for spare parts for use by weapons factories as well as army weapons repair facilities close to the combat zone.
These storage facilities are being stripped of all usable combat vehicles, including those only used for spare parts. These stockpiles cannot be replenished because of the demands for combat vehicles to fight in Ukraine and the inability of the Russian weapons industries to produce enough new or reconditioned armored vehicles. If the fighting in Ukraine maintains its high level of combat intensity and heavy Russian losses continue in 2024, it will be much harder for the Russian army to maintain its military power for offensive operations in 2025. That means the conventional Russian military threat to other nations in the region is much more limited.
The shortage of Russian weapons reserves plus new weapons production means as long as Ukraine continues to receive military assistance from NATO countries, Russia will soon have fewer weapons than the Ukrainians. Most Russian forces in Ukraine are already on the defensive and Russia has been able to carry out fewer and fewer offensive operations. Russian losses in Ukraine were higher than expected because Ukraine innovated and produced thousands of relatively cheap UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) and USV (Unmanned Surface Vessels) to dominate the battlefield on land and sea. Half the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been disabled or destroyed by USVs and the surviving ships have moved to distant ports to avoid destruction.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/2024041601116.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 Russian Shahed drones overnight. An unspecified missile strike reported in Poltava.
Russia continues to press the attack toward Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
With the ‘deep war’ at a lull, the crushing grind along the eastern front continues with Russia pyrrhic gains. Main focus of the fight continues to be in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut regions.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas offers 20 hostages in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
- International suspense on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israeli govt sources saying that the Rafah operation was delayed due to the Iranian attack, but that preparations are continuing, focusing first on getting non-combatants out of the town before the main attack hits.
***
Israeli war cabinet has given go ahead for strikes on Iran and it appear that Netanyahu and other leaders are refusing to receive diplomatic calls to hold fire. Strong inferences seen that Israel is trying to craft an attack that hurts Iran and likely some proxy forces but is restrained to the extent to limit Iranian escalation.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of.
Israeli air strikes, artillery and naval gunfire hits all regions of Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army announced that the Northern Command is conducting field exercises that include plans to respond to any possible scenarios
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Global hand wringing over the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran. Indicators suggest a plan has been approved, but may be getting one more tweak.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Hapag-Lloyd Shipping Company: The crisis in the Red Sea continues and the diversion of ships will continue
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran President Raisi told the Emir of Qatar that Tehran “will respond to any action against its interests” after Israel said it will respond to its drones and missiles attack.
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Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of instigating the conflict in Gaza to undermine progress in reaching a normalization agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem.
In an interview with Israeli public broadcaster Kan News on Sunday, a source from the royal family also said that Tehran promotes terrorism and suggested that Riyadh played a role in thwarting Saturday night’s drone and missile attack against Israel by the Islamic Republic and its proxies.
Notably, a recap of the interview is published prominently on the House of Saud website, which covers the royal family.
“Iran is a nation that endorses terrorism, and the world should have curtailed it much earlier,” the Saudi royal said.
——— FORECAST ————————-
We are in a renewed period of Israel is ready to push the button. An interesting factoid popped up yesterday and that is Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day. Big parades and such. Interesting way Israel could celebrate that event would be with its counter strike. Just thinking.
Much of the world recognizes , as I, the real opportunity Israel has to hit key Iranian nuclear sites. This may be the best opportunity to do so.
As noted above, there is a lot of pressure on Israel to dial back any counter strike in an effort to prevent any further escalation in the region. Speculation is high that the war cabinet is taking that into consideration.
As with Iran, disinformation and propaganda is abundant from both sides, so just when Israel pulls the trigger won’t really be known until it starts.
I think Israel response - provided it is successful, unlikely Irans attack - could put Iran back in its box for a while and allow refocus on Hamas and eventually Hezbollah. The ineffectiveness of Iran to seriously touch Israel would be deterrent made stronger by an Israeli strike.
Iran has created a minor distraction for Hamas, who’s latest hostage release offer is trying to leverage Israel’s dealings with Iran to its advantage. 20 hostages offered for release for essentially an Israeli surrender is not going to fly. I strongly suspect that after this impending Iranian strike, we will see the wheels really get in gear for the entrance into Rafah and Hama’s last stand.
In the interim, Israel has been continuing to nail Hamas et al groups throughout the rest of Gaza as they try to regroup.
The “Islamic Resistance” influence in the fight appears to be greatly diminished over the past few weeks. Attacks in the Red Sea are way down, though the Houthi threat remains. Pro-Iran proxy militias in Syria and Iraq have largely been quiet as well, and interestingly having to deal more with ISIS than US forces.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024