Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Thanks very much Godzilla.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
(FO) According to people familiar with the matter, former Deputy National Security Advisor for international economics Daleep Singh is returning to the White House.
Singh said during a Senate hearing that the White House pushed for a U.S. digital dollar as “the single best step that we could take because it would crowd out the ecosystem of crypto that allows national security adversaries, like Russia, to exploit our deficiencies.”
OBSERVATION - Besides being a hawk on Russia, Singh is also a proponent for a digital dollar, or a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which likely means a renewed push from the White House for a consumer digital dollar.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
With the weekend approaching, there are indicators that pro-hamas rallies will be conducted in various cities across the US. The Gaza war has dropped to lower levels of concern to other domestic issues, so these pro-hamas groups are looking at more aggressive types of protests to gain the main news. These protests are believed to be an increase in “street takeover” demonstrations. Included in this are calls for more an escalation to direct action activities like black bloc tactics at demonstrations. (FO)
***
Darwin Andres Gomez-Izquiel, 19, who reportedly ganged up on a New York City cop was arrested again yesterday, this time because of a Macy’s robbery where he apparently beat up a security guard.
OBSERVATION - This recent crop of illegals is accelerating the crime spree in NYC. Thought reports don’t say - bets are that he is back on the streets with a no-bail release.
The upwelling in organized gang crime - particularly by those coming from Venezuela is beginning to tip the scales in the domestic stability of our metro areas. As the country splits politically - power vacuums will form to be filled by gangs of many flavors. This creates a whole new grouping of threats that higher today than 3 years ago.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Police confirm that the Kansas City shooting was a dispute between several thugs, including 2 juveniles. This has all the hallmarks of gang violence, and not a terrorist incident per say .
Of course the left is screaming for more gun control laws that these criminals will just ignore.
Economy-
Cross reference with WEF Global Reset items
Americans are struggling in an economy in which, by official statistics, nearly one-fifth of the value of their dollars has evaporated in three years—though many will say the cost of food and other essentials has become more expensive than what the official numbers state.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which tracks food prices, offers an optimistic assessment of the coming year. After having gone up 9.9 percent in 2022, the USDA states, “[food] prices grew more slowly in 2023,” increasing by only 5.8 percent.
“Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024,” the USDA projects.
While some predict that the worst is behind us, analysts of the U.S. farming industry say there is another round of price inflation in the works, which will come from the Biden administration’s “whole of government” effort to reduce global temperatures.
A recent report by the Buckeye Institute attempts to quantify the cost of Bidenomics to farmers.
The report, titled “Net-Zero Climate-Control Policies Will Fail the Farm,” projects that farmers will see costs rise by at least 34 percent, which will increase the household grocery bill for an American family of four by more than $1,300 per year.
“Complying with net-zero emissions policies and corporate ESG reporting requirements will increase prices of farm inputs, the costs of which will ultimately be passed onto consumers at grocery stores and restaurants,” the report states.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/climate-agenda-set-push-food-prices-even-higher-analysts-say
OBSERVATION - They want to essentially kill agriculture because of the phantom menace farming allegedly has in the creation of green house gasses. The secondary (and deeply hidden) reason is to reduce the population the earth thru a forced famine scenario. We are the carbon they ultimately want to reduce.
The same agenda has caused massive protests by farmers in Europe over the past couple months - many are still continuing. The are pushing for the full closure of farms and ranches - obtainable via stringent laws and hyper high costs of essentials, like diesel for the tractors.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Continued controversy regarding a potential Russian nuclear space based weapon. A lot of speculation and lack of details.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
More evidence that 0bama conspired with the CIA and foreign govts to illegally spy on Trump and his organization during his transition period following his election. As classified letter has been revealed and published. The letter addressed to Boris Johnson also mentions Susan Rice’s involvement in spying on Trump during his transition period.
In this letter, GCHQ was asked -
“at the request of the US President seeking intelligence gathering into the Trump Organization and Donald J. Trump for President, Inc”
OBSERVATION - For those of you old enough to remember Watergate - this action by 0bama make that wiretapping look like child’s play. This is a level of treason beyond belief. This spying was initially written off as another conspiracy theory. Once again it appears the theorists were correct, and now the evil deeds are being uncovered.
Will anything be done substantially to put the wrong doers in prison. Sadly, no, even if Trump gets elected, the swamp won’t rat out their own.
***
Fani Willis and Nathan Wade, her illicit lover, had a terrible, awful, very bad day yesterday where a judge heard testimony on a motion by defendants to disqualify Fani Willis from her prosecution of Donald Trump and others. I’ll defer to the FR threads that go into all the gory details of yesterday’s testimonies. BTW - there’s more in tap today. Sitcom or soap opera - you decide.
Yesterday went to bad that MSNBC legal analyst, defense attorney and FBI official Caroline Polisi told MSNBC that she believed Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will likely be “disqualified” from overseeing Donald Trump’s Georgia election interference case due to her improper relationship with lead prosecutor Nathan Wade.
Suffice it to say that beyond Fani Willis wearing her dress backwards (!) - (yes, not Babylon Bee)
- Fani Willis admitted Felony Campaign Finance Fraud in addition to perjury
- Nathan Wade lied and committed Perjury
In the “Before Years”, this case against Trump would be tossed out in a second. In today’s politicized judiciary that is no longer a given, nor any punishment to Fani or Wade. I would love to be surprised though.
***
Biden’s Justice Department (DOJ) is suing Tennessee, claiming the state’s law against prostitutes, who know they have HIV and yet engage in sex with their clients, is discriminatory.
The DOJ’s lawsuit, filed Thursday, alleges that the State of Tennessee and the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation (TB) are violating the federal Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) by punishing HIV-infected prostitutes who may knowingly risk infecting their customers.
A statute instituted in 1991 defines the crime as “aggravated prostitution” and makes it a Class C felony.
OBSERVATION - In the Before Years this kind of lawsuit would not even be considered by the DoJ. However, now in the ‘new normal’ of Alice’s wonderland, these kind of lawsuits are becoming the norm. Part of the Cloward–Piven strategy - a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven. It is the strategy of forcing political change leading to societal collapse through orchestrated crises.
***
The U.S. House of Representatives went on recess until February 28 without considering a bill for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. This decision by House Speaker Mike Johnson was criticized by the White House.
OBSERVATION - Oh MY, this is going to create quite the vicious battle on capitol hill when congress reconvenes. Three major agenda items will be clashing. The foreign aid bill for Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan; border security ; and finalizing a federal budget before the current March 1 deadline. We’ve already seen this past week how vicious it has gotten. Next month will be even crazier. Throw the Mayorkas impeachment effort into the mix as well.
According to the last continuing resolution, government funding is set to run out over two dates, 01 March and 08 March, and House Republicans are saying they will not pass another continuing resolution. One can expect that the Govt will go into shutdown as a result of the political fighting and maneuvering on capitol hill.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Special Counsel Robert Hur, who was tasked with probing president Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents, is set to testify before Congress in March.
US media reported that Mr Hur will testify before the Republican-led House Judiciary Committee on March 12.
The news follows Mr Hur’s report in which he raised questions about the president’s memory and mental fitness.
House Republicans have indicated that they intend to ask Mr Hur about his comments on the president’s memory.
They have also asked him to turn over recordings and transcripts of his interviews with Mr Biden, which he made during his year-long investigation.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68313088
OBSERVATION - There’s a storm coming. . . .
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
It has been noted in the past, but the conspiracy has grown to massive proportions in the involvement of NGOs in aiding illegals to enter the US. Non-governmental organizations like OIM, Red Cross, UNICEF, HIAS, the European Union, Doctors Without Borders, UNHCR, and the Norwegian Refugee Council are offering migrants aid and instructions on how to get into the United States.
The migrants have been receiving maps with specific routes that detail how to make it safely to the U.S.-Mexico border.
OBSERVATION - Many have been receiving US $$$ supporting their efforts. Some, like a Universalist Church organization - has military age, single males in camps in the woods - out of sight of regulatory individuals/law enforcement. This is aiding and abetting - and people should go to jail over this.
****
What has happened to the thousands of illegal alien children that have entered the US. This is a scary thought considering the exponential growth in pedophilia and child trafficking. Now the US govt has made things worse.
The HHS Office of Inspector General found that HHS failed to run basic safety checks.
The Department of Health and Human Services is required to screen adults who volunteer to take in children arriving in the country without parents. But the analysis concluded that the department failed to prove it ran basic safety checks — like address or criminal background checks — on some adults who took in children. In about a third of the cases reviewed by the federal watchdog, the agency did not have legible documentation for the adults on file.
“We found that children’s case files and sponsor records were not always updated with important documentation and information,” said Haley Lubeck, an analyst for the HHS Office of Inspector General, which conducted the review.
The federal health agency responded to the report by saying it has improved the process and the report only shows a limited window into how the agency handled cases “during an unprecedented influx.” HHS said it has also added new training for its employees handling migrant children.
OBSERVATION - These kids are disappearing through there cracks and many into the hands of child predators. This is unconscionable. This is what human trafficking and child slavery look like. Who knows what was happening to those children? It sure isn’t the Biden administration.
***
Newly uncovered emails between Department of Homeland Security officials and journalists show the agency tasked with protecting U.S. border and domestic security admitted it is not tracking illegal immigrants after they were released from federal custody into the interior of the country.
In the emails obtained by the watchdog group Protect the Public’s Trust in a Freedom of Information Act request, one DHS official told a Washington Post reporter off the record he could not say how many immigrants are settling in Northern states via border state busing programs because the agency does not track those released from their custody.
https://hotair.com/headlines/2024/02/16/no-were-not-tracking-illegals-released-into-america-n3783015
OBSERVATION - Remember, recently revealed that illegals flying commercial air do not have to be photographed. They don’t want us to know where they’ve been moved to.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The United States’ warning that Russia is developing nuclear weapons in space was written off by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday as a farce meant to scare Congress into giving Ukraine more funding.
“It is obvious that the White House is trying, by hook or by crook, to encourage Congress to vote on a bill to allocate money; this is obvious,” Peskov said. “We’ll see what tricks the White House will use,” he continued.
The rumors were also denounced as a “malicious fabrication” by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov.
“We have seen these reports. This is part of a trend that has been there for a decade, with the Americans making up malicious stories and ascribing to us some actions and intentions that they don’t like,” Ryabkov told a Russian media outlet.
“In working with them, we keep telling them that groundless allegations of any kind will get no reaction from us. If they make some claims, they should at least provide evidence,” Ryabkov added, referencing the Biden administration.
https://www.oann.com/newsroom/russia-calls-u-s-space-nuke-rumors-malicious-fabrication/
Logistics –
A massive crater was discovered after a recent Russian missile attack on the Kyiv region. It is suspected to be from a North Korean ballistic missile that was intercepted and fell in a forest, leaving a massive crater and vaporized all trees in an 80 meter diameter. It is believed the missile to be a NK KN-23. The KN-23 is a new SRBM first tested in May 2019, with a range of 690 km and a visual similarity to Russia’s Iskander-M.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Unconfirmed reports that Russian Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov has been relieved of his command.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 400,300. This is more than twice the original invasion force number. For comparison, when Russia pulled out of Afghanistan they had only lost a little over 12,000.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainan defenses in the city are beginning to fall. A decision was made to withdraw from the “Zenith” position to the south-eastern outskirts of Avdiivka, - commander Tarnavskyi. Ground based information on “Zenith” are confused, but it appears that Russian forces have essentially encircled the position and Ukraine forces are attempting a break through to facilitate evacuation. Another Russian push in the north, between the town and the coke plant continues to gain ground, threatening the rest of Ukrainian defenses. Reportedly, Russia has mustered a 7:1 advantage in men - launching almost nonstop meat attacks that Ukraine doesn’t have enough artillery ammo to fend of as they have in the past. Small arms ammo is at a premium as well.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The situation in Avdiivka is becoming critical for Ukraine, and the likelihood that it is going to fall within the next few days is increasing moment by moment. This would be one of Russia’s most significant tactical victories of the war. In contrast to the capture of Bakhmut, Russian leadership actually put together a component of maneuver and supporting attacks across the sector. They still had to rely a lot on ‘meat’ attacks. A turning point is also the severe lack of artillery rounds. Ukraine has devastated Russian attacks with timely and well placed artillery strikes on attacking forces. It is severely lacking in the current situation.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel entered Nasser Hospital in search of evidence of hostages and Hamas terrorists. Several terror suspects were arrested during the raid
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
Doctors Without Borders: We call on the Israeli forces to stop their attack on Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis immediately
***
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected all plans for unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood after he spoke with US President Joe Biden for 40 minutes and after the security cabinet met.
“At the cabinet meeting, I clarified my position regarding the recent talk of imposing a Palestinian state on Israel,” Netanyahu wrote in a post on X.
“These two sentences sum up my position,” he explained.
״Israel outright rejects international dictates regarding a permanent arrangements with the Palestinians. Such an arrangement will be reached only through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions,” Netanyahu wrote.
“Israel will continue to oppose the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state. Such recognition in the wake of the October 7 massacre would give a huge reward to unprecedented terrorism and prevent any future peace settlement,” Netanyahu stressed.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-18/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
***
The Israel Defense Forces announced on Thursday that there was “credible evidence” that Hamas held hostages at Nasser Hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, and that the bodies of dead captives may be located inside the facility.
In a video message, IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari revealed that IDF special forces were conducting a “precise and limited operation” inside the hospital, with the military later stating that several terror suspects were arrested during the raid.
OBSERVATION - This operation should not be a surprise. Every hospital/medical facility has proven to be a cover for Hamas activity - storing fighting equipment and covering underground bunker systems. Evidence that sub-hospital bunkers in other parts of Gaza held hostages is also abundant.
“As was proven with the Shifa Hospital, Rantisi Hospital, Al Amal Hospital and many other hospitals across Gaza, Hamas systematically uses hospitals as terror hubs,” IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
Israeli Foreign Minister - “The world must pressure Iran and Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon”
The Israeli army says it carried out a strike on a building used by the Hezbollah terror group in the southern Lebanon town of Qantara last night. According to the Israeli army, several operatives were killed in the strike carried out by fighter jets.
Hezbollah announced that 7 of its members were killed in Israeli bombing of southern Lebanon during the last 24 hours
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Rockets targeted the American base in the Al-Omar oil field in the Deir Ezzor countryside.
The US-British coalition carried out new airstrikes on various areas in Al-Hudaydah, Yemen overnight.
On Feb. 15, at approximately 4:30 p.m., an anti-ship ballistic missile was launched from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen into the Gulf of Aden. The missile was headed toward MV Lycavitos, a Barbados-flagged, UK-owned and operated bulk carrier. The ship reported no injuries but very minor damage in the attack and continued its voyage. Additionally, between the hours of 3:10 p.m. – 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully conducted two self-defense strike against three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea. CENTCOM identified these mobile missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region
The US recently conducted a cyberattack against the Iranian military ship MV Behshad which had been collecting intelligence on cargo vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, officials say - NBC
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israel continues to target Hezbollah leadership in air strikes into Lebanon. As I’ve noted before, IDF is preparing the battle field in these strikes for the eventual ground war, wearing down Hezbollah preparations, command and communications.
It is my assessment that Israel is not going to kick the offensive off until things get better resolved in Gaza. Hezbollah may sense this and launch a preemptive offensive. However, Israel is positioned well in this regard to deal with Hezbollah forces on the ground. With progressive targeting of know rocket launching sites, the threat of massive rocket barrages become incrementally smaller, but still staggering to comprehend. I don’t think Hezbollah is quite ready to commit so such an all out war, possibly preferring to wait for Israels first move. Dangerous position to give IDF the option to seize the initiative right off the bat. Israel has been preparing for this war since 2008 and won’t make the same mistakes that it appears Hezbollah is hoping for a second time.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Azerbaijan is planning a “full-scale war” against Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Thursday, two days after a skirmish on their border left four Armenian troops dead.
Tensions between the two Caucasus neighbors have remained high since Baku recaptured the Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh last September in a lightning military offensive. “Our analysis shows that Azerbaijan wants to launch military action in some parts of the border with the prospect of turning military escalation into a full-scale war against Armenia,” Pashinyan said at a government meeting. “This intention can be read in all statements and actions of Azerbaijan,” he added. Yerevan is concerned that Azerbaijan, emboldened by its success in Karabakh, could invade Armenian territory in order to create a land bridge to its exclave of Nakhchivan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who won re-election this month, said in an inauguration speech Wednesday it was Armenia, not Azerbaijan, that had outstanding territorial claims. “We have no territorial claims to Armenia. And they should give up their claims. Talking to us in the language of blackmail will cost them dearly,” he said. Pashinyan and Aliyev previously said a peace agreement could have been signed by the end of last year, but internationally mediated peace talks have failed to yield a breakthrough. On Tuesday, both sides accused each other of opening fire on their volatile border, in a skirmish Armenia said left four of its soldiers dead.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/02/15/Azerbaijan-planning-full-scale-war-Armenia-warns
OBSERVATION - This threatens to be a regional conflict unless both sides cool down. With Russia out of the position of supporting Armenia - an act that kept relative calm between the two nations for quite a few years - the Azeri’s are seeing territorial growth potential with their historic enemies. However, the story gets complicated from there with Iran supporting the Armenians, oddly a Christian country, essentially because a worse enemy - Israel has been supplying arms to Azeris. Turkey is also supporting Azerbaijan as they have ought against the Armenians for centuries.
I have to watch myself to make sure I don't become too cynical and discouraged too - - those forces can distort ...
You're right. Not a lot of 'clean hands' in this situation.
That said, Russia was the aggressor and carries the burden of starting an unjust war. While true I feel the United States has a larger responsibility to protect our own borders, our own economy, our own debt and our own freedom. For all I know, Russia invaded Ukraine with the goal of draining our resources on senseless war. Like Reagan getting into an arms race with the USSR with the goal of bankrupting the USSR with their own arrogance...
In a different time we had more money, and better leaders and might have had the ability to step in to all sorts of 'wrongs'. That's not the situation now - and I wouldn't be surprised to find out down the road that Ukraine was paying kickback to 'the elites' in DC. And that once again DC was selling out the American people. (Which does NOT excuse Russia's decision to invade).
Can we walk and chew gum at the same time? Looking at how fragile our country has become - and the way we're being played by ugly forces - I'd say 'no' - not at this time.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Starting on February 19, a college of 21 experts will gather at WHO’s headquarters to develop global guidelines governing how doctors respond to people who identify as transgender. This project aims to create international standards for the issue by relying on a two-pronged strategy of “science” and “human rights.” The process is biased, as numerous national and international media outlets have pointed out.
However, this strategy might work, because it already has in the past. This process resulted in a new guideline in 2022, promoting the legalization of abortion up to birth. This is precisely the same strategy WHO is now using to promote transgenderism.
WHO’s Guideline Development Group on transgenderism consists of 21 members, 16 of whom are gender ideology activists. This raises questions about the objectivity of the work they will present at the February meeting.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6691
OBSERVATION - Total perversion of the natural male/female genders is a goal of these marxist globalists - a means to try to destroy the nuclear family as well as strip the parents rights to raise their children within their world view -mostly driven against Christians. Trans activists here and around the globe will immediately grab onto these guidelines in order to force laws to permit unlimited by age ‘transitions’ without parental agreement. Most likely the US govt swamp will openly agree to these guidelines and begin implementation anyway.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
TX in process of establishing a NG base near the Rio Grande to support border security operations.
***
Weekend here and expect pro-hamas demonstrations in metropolitan areas of the country.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Unconfirmed reports that the FBI briefing to sheriffs recently noted that there are already 2 million terrorists in country. If that is true, the chaos that could ensue would now likely project past simply targeting infrastructure - but in some cases open attacks on civilian / govt targets to openly challenge law enforcement and spread even more terror. A very bad, worst case scenario.
Economy-
There is a full spectrum of economists predicting everything from a ‘no landing’ (no recession at all) to a crash landing (major recession). This just goes to show how mixed the economic signals are. Should one of the ‘good’ signals fail, the chances increase for recession.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Continued controversy regarding a potential Russian nuclear space based weapon. A lot of speculation and lack of details.
Current speculation that I’ve seen is a nuclear EMP device to fry satellite electronics. That naturally could spill over into an EMP induced smash to ground based electronics as well. This is a lot of speculation because modern satellites have a lot more and better hardening due to experience dealing with solar storms and related. This consists of better shielding of electronic components - protections that could thwart a nuclear EMP wave.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Judge Arthur Engoron heard deliberations and made his final say in the New York courtroom, declaring that 45th President Donald J. Trump is liable, an expected decision by the liberal judge.
The Friday verdict, which was revealed in a 92-page ruling, stated that Trump has to pay at least $354 million in the civil fraud trial.
Additionally, Trump is banned from conducting business in New York and serving as an officer or director at any New York corporation or legal entity for three years.
OBSERVATION - This verdict will likely be overturned on appeal. The judge essentially declared Trump to be guilty from the onset - a gross example of politicization of the judiciary.
***
Meanwhile, yesterday in Atlanta the soap opera continued over charges the DA and her boy toy operated illegally.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden exploded at a press conference yesterday ,”can’t believe Congress is taking a two-week vacation at a time when President Putin is responsible for Alexei Navalny’s death. “Two weeks, two weeks, my God!”
NOTE - Biden, who has been on holiday more than Presidents before him (nearly 40% on holidays)
***
After avoiding the site for over a year, biden’s visit to E Palestine didn’t go too well for him.
Last September, biden said he hadn’t been to East Palestine, Ohio because he hadn’t “been able to break.” He had just spent most of August on vacation.
***
President Joe Biden will have a tough time winning a second term if approval and economic ratings are any indication, according to Gallup.
Biden’s job approval rating sits at 41% and just 20% of Americans are satisfied with the country’s direction under the Democrat. According to Gallup, just one U.S. president with a sub-50% approval rating won reelection (George W. Bush) and none was reelected if fewer than 30% of U.S. adults were satisfied with the state of the nation.
Former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton had similar marks as Biden on the country’s direction in January of their reelection years but saw increases as the year went on.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/biden-reelection-2024/2024/02/16/id/1153958/
OBSERVATION - I hold polling at this stage of the election cycle at arms length. But this traditionally left of center polling should awaken the biden camp. Absent a mega vote stealing effort - beyond the last election, or some other ‘emergency’ that could tilt the election process, his chances are fading fast to be reelected.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
See “Terrorism” above regarding the probable infiltration of perhaps as many as 2 million terrorists into the country.
See also “Mexico” below regarding potential spread of Narco-terrorists control in the US growing.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Russia’s prison agency announced Friday that prominent Vladimir Putin critic and opposition leader Alexei Navalny has died at the age of 47.
The Federal Prison Service said in a statement that Navalny felt unwell after a walk on Friday and lost consciousness, according to The Associated Press. An ambulance arrived to try to rehabilitate him, but he died, the statement added.
Navalny was being held at the IK-3 penal colony, also known as “Polar Wolf,” in Kharp in northern Russia, which is considered one of the country’s toughest prisons.
Previously, Russian authorities had held him at a facility roughly 145 miles east of Moscow. Navalny’s team lost contact with him after he failed to appear in court via video link for a hearing on Dec. 5, kicking off a desperate search until he resurfaced in Kharp around Christmas.
Navalny’s spokesperson said in a post on X that “we have no confirmation of this yet.
At least 212 people were detained at events in 21 cities across Russia on Friday and Saturday in memory of Alexei Navalny, according to an independent Russian human rights group.
Biden on Friday slammed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the reported death of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny “Make no mistake, Putin is responsible for Navalny’s death. Putin is responsible. What has happened to Navalny is yet more proof of Putin’s brutality,” Biden said at the White House. The Russian leader “does not only target citizens of other countries, as we’ve seen with what is going on in Ukraine right now. He also inflicts terrible crimes on his own people,” he added.
OBSERVATION - The Russian presidential elections are coming up soon and putin likely wants to put this behind him as quickly as possible to avoid any serious backlash.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps dropping to the teens-20s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Avdiivka has fallen to Russian forces. Overnight, Ukraine pulled out of the city to prevent being encircled. The exact control of the territory is not clear, particularly on who continues to hold the coke plant that is northwest of the city. Reports are that the evacuation was a close run thing.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 Su-34 and a Su-35 overnight. No word as to where along the front this has occurred, but indicators suggest it was in the Bakhmut region. Russian AF has gotten a little more aggressive lately with CAS as ADA munition shortages are being felt as well. These losses, though, will hurt Russian AF’s limited numbers of airworthy airframes and likely force them to back off attacks for a limited period. Some suggest that this is another instance of a Patriot ambush.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Avdiivka’s fall has been an objective of Russian forces since 2014 and the Donetsk ‘revolution’. Located on the front line north of occupied Donetsk, it served as a bottle neck for westward expansion of Russian controlled terrain. The current battle started as a surprise attack in early October got early bogged down. After 5 months of costly battles, Russians managed to secure the 32,000 population city (pre war).
In territorial numbers, the newly occupied territory entails around 82 square kilometers (31 square miles). An estimate of the number of Russian KIA is put at about 30,000, tens of thousand others were wounded. Others estimate that the Russian losses exceeded twice those from Bakhmut.
However, any Russian exploitation from this win is likely to be minimal. To the west-northwest are predominately flat terrain with a lot of water features and very limited roads thru them - creating numerous chokepoints. Ukraine has also been very busy constructing a defensive network similar to what Russia has - with extensive trenches and minefields. Russia also doesn’t have the tanks and APC for speedy movement. Weather conditions, though colder, have not frozen the ground sufficiently to permit extensive off road movement.
My assessment would be that once Russian forces have consolidated in the area, forces will be pulled out and diverted to other sectors, likely as a ready reserve, for Russia’s next big offensive attempt. Possible the Bakhmut or Kremmia sectors.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF operations in Nasser Hospital net the capture of 100 terrorists and discovery of medicines that were labeled for hostages by name.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Martin Griffiths, the head of the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, was asked Wednesday about the feasibility of Israel’s goal to eliminate Hamas and prevent the terrorist group from continuing to govern the Gaza Strip.
“I’ve worked with many, many different terrorist and insurgent groups,” he told UK’s Sky News in response.
“Hamas is not a terrorist group for us, as you know, it’s a political movement.”
Israeli officials condemned Griffiths’ response
***
Benny Gantz: IDF will invade Rafah if hostages are not freed, war could continue into Ramadan.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
***
The IDF announced on Saturday morning that they had arrested over 100 terrorists in Nasser Hospital during operations in the Gaza Strip and that operations would continue for the foreseeable future.
On Friday, the military reported that during the operation at the hospital, forces discovered medicines bearing the name of Israeli hostages.
“The origin of the medications and their use are currently under investigation,” the army announced Friday evening. However, security officials estimate these were not part of the medicine shipment for the hostages facilitated by Qatar last month.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
Nasrallah - “In response to the statements of the Israeli Defense Minister, I say that we have an accurate missile capability that enables us to reach as far as Eilat.”
“If the Americans stop supplying weapons to Israel, the Israeli war on Gaza will stop immediately”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Katyusha rockets were launched from southern Syria towards the Golan Heights. In response, IAF confirmed that an Assad governments military ammo warehouse was struck in Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Clashes between rioters and security forces in the Kharsa area in the city of Dura, south of Hebron
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis have struck the British-owned oil tanker Pollux with a missile. The tanker was transporting Russian oil from the Russian Black Sea port city of Novorossiyskand was on its way to bring the oil to a refinery in Paradip, India.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthis are trying to ramp their missile campaign back up in the Red Sea region. CAP continues to hit launchers before they can fire. The Iranian help from their command/spy “Q” vessels has been affected by US jamming and cyber attacks, along with the fear of a US strike to sink those vessels. This has kept them far away from the area and unable to provide timely targeting data to the Houthis.
Israel continues in its preparations to enter Rafah, facilitating movement of civilians out of the city while at the same time working around the perimeter and preparing entrance locations. This is the last major pocket of Hamas resistance and nothing is going to stop Israel from going after the Hamas and affiliated forces therein.
Israeli initiate ground action into Lebanon is likely to be delayed until Gaza is better subdued - could be as much as months. Israel will continue to make best use of the time targeting key Hezbollah leadership, command and control sites as well as logistics and rocket launching sites, to take the edge off Hezbollah’s response when the big fight kicks off.
Iran –
Iran showed off a new air-defense missile system, claiming performance close to that of the Patriot system.
Mexico -
Mexico is the living example of what befalls a nation when it allows corruption to run rampant and fails to crack down on crime.
The effect cartel violence has on the lives of Mexicans is now common knowledge — for many in the Latin American nation, there is always a lingering fear, a walking on eggshells to avoid running afoul of deadly organized crime. The average Mexican citizen understands that, should he rub the local narcos the wrong way and incur their displeasure, he can expect little-to-no help from the authorities and can do just as little to defend himself (after all, firearms are virtually unobtainable for most law-abiding Mexicans).
But violence from organized crime also has a damaging effect on Mexico’s economy, interrupting the flow of key sectors and industries, and thus keeping the nation from prospering.
As the Mexican newspaper El Universal reports, one way the cartels are hurting the Mexican economy is by impacting commercial transportation. In recent days, the Mexican Alliance of Transport Organizations (AMOTAC) has been carrying out a strike in which truckers park their trucks to blockade major roads all across the country. This has both interrupted traffic and set back Mexico’s supply chains.
OBSERVATION - There has been literally a near civil war throughout most of mexico as the military goes from state to state to fight the nacro cartels control, and ongoing fighting between narco cartels for control of territory and drug trafficking.
The article makes a pointed statement that this trend is about to kick up in activity in the US as well. Open borders with illegal capture/processing has diverted a lot of resources away from drug interdiction. Open borders has allowed cartel elements to begin establishing presence in the US not only along border areas, but in many other parts of the country, most notably of recent on Indian reservations in the Dakotas and Montana.
So many of these items/events are now straddling two or more categories. I’m trying to place them in the most appropriate one and referencing the other(s). This just demonstrates that things are becoming crazier as well as how interconnected things are becoming. Something happens in one area has quick and direct affects in another.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Germany announces wide-ranging plans to restrict the speech, travel and economic activity of political dissidents, in order to better control the “thought and speech patterns” of its own people
The plan put forth by Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD), is outlined in a 16-page Interior Ministry paper on “Resolutely Combating Right-Wing Extremism: Using the Instruments of Defensive Democracy.”
Faeser and her fellow political enforcers have such a wide-ranging, fluid understanding of what “right-wing extremism” constitutes, that the label can be deployed against basically anybody. The Interior Ministry paper claims that “The aim of right-wing extremists is to abolish liberal democracy and reshape our society according to their nationalist, racist and anti-pluralist ideas.”
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/germany-announces-wide-ranging-plans
OBSERVATION - A continuation of a global trend to now only attempt to counter any speech that this contrary to the “narrative”, but now there is an increasing push to criminalize such speech, all in the name to preserve “democracy”.
IN RELATED - A law was passed in France on Wednesday that could criminalize resistance to mRNA treatment. Anyone who advises against mRNA or other “medical treatments” that are “ obviously suitable” for treatment based on the current state of medical knowledge can in future be imprisoned in France^
for up to three years or receive a fine of up to 40,000 euros.
***
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus has issued a new warning about the likelihood of Disease X breaking out, telling global world leaders it is “a matter of when, not if” a new pathogen and pandemic will strike.
Tedros told attendees at the World Government Summit in Dubai earlier his week he gave a similar warning in 2018 that a pandemic was likely to hit, and he was proven right with the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus.
Complaining that the world is still ill-prepared for a new pandemic, Tedros once again touted the urgent need for a global treaty to be agreed upon by May.
OBSERVATION - The underlying threat of an impending outbreak of this 20x (how do they know this) as lethal pathogen is imminent and global forces working within govts laying the groundwork for more repressive measures than with wuhan.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Expansion on yesterday’s post.
Abbott on Friday announced that the Lone Star State will build a military base along the Rio Grand at the border city of Eagle Pass.
Spanning 80-acres, “Forward Operating Base Eagle” will house upwards of 1,800 Texas National Guard soldiers supporting Operation Lone Star, and will be expandable to house 2,300. Texas Maj. Gen. Thomas Suelzer said the camp will have 300 beds by mid-April, and will add another 300 beds every month after that.
“Because of the magnitude of what we’re doing, because of the need to sustain and actually expand our efforts of what we’re doing, it’s essential that we build this base camp for the soldiers.”
***
Long-standing tensions in the Eritrean diaspora across the globe appear to have hit a breaking point recently, with violence sparking at several Eritrean-themed festivals between festival-goers and Eritrean protestors who say the events provide support and funds to a repressive regime.
Most recently, rioting in The Hague broke out on Saturday night, after fighting started between rival groups during a meeting of the Eritrean community. The meeting had been organized by pro-government Eritreans at the Opera business centre, although the centre described it as a New Year’s party. Opponents of the regime then turned up and the fighting broke out.
The fighting is the latest outbreak of violence at Eritrean events in Europe. Similar riots occurred in Stuttgart in September 2023, and Giessen several months earlier.
OBSERVATION - These events are directly applicable to here in the US, as these illegals pour in, they bring their various ethnic and political squabbles with them. In my data searches yesterday, I found reports of a similar riot occurring in the US on the same day. (lost the reference). The increasing potential for ethnic fighting in the US within and between groups of illegals will add another layer to the chaos of a hot CW2 scenario as they seek to settle old scores as well as try to carve out territory / resources for themselves.
IN RELATED - Islamic imans here in the US are increasingly calling for moslem domination of the country and imposition of shariah law and jinza fees. We’ve had these calls in lesser measure for decades now. What has changed is the massive influx of moslems coming illegally into the country and the leftist support of anti-Israel/pro-hamas protests of late. Already, some communities were massive numbers of Somali’s were imported have begun to peripherally enforce islamic legal concepts on non-moslems. Again, this is developing into a new factor in any CW2 scenario where these growing moslem dominated areas could seize the opportunity to break off and other moslem influenced regions to seize power as well.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
Experts are sounding alarms that the distressed US commercial real estate market could trigger a new banking crisis, if default rates on commercial mortgages rise sharply.
Some $929 billion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024, or 20 percent of the $4.7 trillion total outstanding debt, according to recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Disturbingly, about 14 percent of all CRE loans, and 44 percent of office loans, appear to be ‘underwater,’ with current property values that are less than the outstanding loan balances, according to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
‘If nothing changes — if interest rates remain elevated and property values do not improve — we do view defaults at the rate of the Great Recession, and in fact even higher, as quite a possibility,’ one of the co-authors, Columbia Business School professor Tomasz Piskorski, told DailyMail.com.
If default rates on CRE loans jumped to 10 percent, the study estimates that 231 US banks, with aggregate assets of $1 trillion, would see the market value of their assets fall below the value of their customer deposits.
That situation could spur panicked customers to withdraw their uninsured deposits, in the same kind of rapid bank run that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last year.
OBSERVATION - These are big default numbers and could totally slam the idea of a soft ‘landing’ for the economy. Secondary effects will rip through the banking system affecting other areas as well as banks struggle to recover from the hits.
A very big storm could break out later this year.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Study came out saying we have too many general/flag officers and should be pared down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Truckers are discussing the implementation of a boycot of shipping loads to NYC to protest the recent judgement against Trump. A high percentage of truckers are loyal to trump and there is sufficient anger out there over the judgement. The truckers are reportedly beginning their boycott this Monday. How much traction it gains is yet to be seen, however, NYC relies on imported / trucked supplies and any significant reduction in shipments will have a big impact.
***
Related - Legal experts analyzed what they called “breathtaking” civil penalties against former President Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, former Trump Organization Comptroller Jeffrey McConney and ex-CFO Allen Weisselberg – warning other corporations based in the Empire State may realize they could suddenly be put out of business by the state on a political whim.
Former Bush White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said “[Y]ou just say goodbye to New York, which fits a pattern that many successful people have been doing and leaving New York because New York is just too political, too blue and too punitive – you’re seeing that in the business community and among upper income New Yorkers already,” he said – adding the state’s crime wave accentuates the issue.
OBSERVATION - Remember, Rush left NYC for Florida for much the same reasons. Whether or not this will further embolden the leftists to go after other individuals/businesses on the right is yet to be seen - probably depending heavily on what the outcome of Trumps appeal is.
****
Republican lawmakers are accusing the State Department of threatening to obstruct their investigation into “censorship” of companies in the United States.
House Small Business Committee Republicans have continued to request grant records from the State Department’s Global Engagement Center for an inquiry into “government censorship and revenue interference of American small businesses by proxy,” which the committee launched after a series of Washington Examiner reports on the interagency group funding the Global Disinformation Index, a British think tank blacklisting conservative media from advertising dollars. Now, the Biden administration is asserting it may resort to letting the GOP-led panel review documents solely under in camera supervision, which lawmakers say is a “veiled threat to further impede” their investigation, letters show.
OBSERVATION - Continuation of the efforts of the govt to silence the opposition.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
New York Times columnist Ezra Klein is calling for Joe Biden to step aside for a new Democratic nominee. In the latest episode of The Ezra Klein Show, Klein complimented President Biden on successfully unifying the Democratic Party, contrasting it with Republican disunity on key issues like Ukraine. The columnist also praised Biden for his handling of the economy. However, despite praising Biden, he questioned his viability as a central figure in a presidential campaign.
“I like Biden… he’s been a good president… he is a good president. I don’t like having this conversation. And I know a lot of liberals, a lot of Democrats are going to be furious at me for this show,” Klein said.
OBSERVATION - The vultures are circling, how long will biden last?
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The Texas National Guard in El Paso held the line and physically repelled illegal aliens crossing over the border.
Footage posted to X showed a Texas National Guard soldier physically pushing illegals back toward Mexico on Friday.
OBSERVATION - This isn’t the first rejection of illegals that swam the Rio Grande only to be turned away at the fence. Over 75% reduction in illegals since TX took over control of this section of the border.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Kh-59 missile was shot down over Kryvyi Rih district. At least 2 killed as result of missile strikes in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
Avdiivka has fallen and post collapse studies have revealed that for the FIRST time in the war, Russia was actually able to gain air superiority over the battle field and provide actual close air support to Russian forces. This is reportedly due to the lack of air defense missiles available - suffering shortages like artillery rounds. This may have lead to a level of over confidence given the shoot down of three jets earlier this week. Loss of air defense could be a big factor in future Russian offensive actions - one that may prompt early deployment of F-16s.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Further Russian consolidation in Avdiivka as well as Ukraine bolstering defenses further to the west and northwest.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel rejects imposed two state ‘solution’.
- Action building for eventual entrance of Rafah.
- Growing evidence of direct UNRWA actions in support of Hamas, even to participating in the Oct 7 assault.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
On Friday, a Saudi media report indicated that Hamas turned down an Israeli offer to free 1,500 Palestinian prisoners for the return of all of the hostages into Israel. Hamas had previously asked for the release of 5,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
****
Israel on Sunday formalized its opposition to what it called the “unilateral recognition” of Palestinian statehood, and said any such agreement must be reached through direct negotiations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brought the “declaratory decision” to a vote in his Cabinet, which unanimously approved the measure, according to a statement.
Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly meeting that the move comes after “recent talk in the international community about an attempt to unilaterally impose on Israel a Palestinian state.”
****
A video made public by Israeli officials allegedly shows a U.N. relief worker loading the limp body of a shot Israeli man into the back of an SUV and driving away from a southern Israeli village during Hamas’ Oct. 7 cross-border attack.
The video was first reported on by The Washington Post and also shared online by Israeli officials, who identified the man as Faisal Ali Mussalem Al Naami, a social worker with the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) in the Gaza Strip.
Israel has presented intelligence alleging some UNRWA staff took part in abductions and killings during the Oct. 7 rampage that sparked the Israel-Hamas war, prompting a cascade of countries to halt funds for the Palestinian aid agency. UNRWA denies wrongdoing, describing its role as relief only.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
***
Overnight, Israel increased raids on the periphery of Rafah, as well as targeted air strikes in the city proper.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Overnight, Israeli security forces stormed the Shuafat camp, northeast of Jerusalem and Anata in Jerusalem.
Clashes erupted with Israeli security forces in the Shuafat refugee camp in Jerusalem.
NOTE - these ‘refugee’ camps are just extensions of the city and built up. Not the ‘tent city’ one thinks about in regards to a ‘refugee’.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Tempo continues to build toward eventual entry into Rafah. It seems to depend on how many and how soon Israel can get non-combatants moved out of the city and into designated areas to the northwest, closer to the Med. This will likely be the most difficult action IDF has faced in Gaza given the mass of civilians that moved here from N and central Gaza combined with the ‘last stand’ of Hamas, its leadership and likely location where surviving hostages are being held.
Another sign things are collapsing...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WHO transgender guideline committee meeting this week.
****
Rich globalist reaching into the US to censor views and opinions.
A green nonprofit that is indirectly funded by a foreign billionaire is pressuring broadcasters to drop advertisements that criticize the Biden administration’s massive electric vehicle (EV) agenda.
Climate Power wrote to numerous broadcasters this week demanding that they stop airing American Fuel and Petrochemicals Manufacturers (AFPM)-funded advertisements in swing state markets that rail against President Joe Biden’s plans to impose widespread EV adoption in the coming years. The charitable organization affiliated with Hansjorg Wyss, a Swiss health care mogul and billionaire philanthropist, donates millions of dollars to the Fund for a Better Future, which was the fiscal sponsor for Climate Power until 2023, a spokesperson for Climate Power previously told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
AFPM launched its seven-figure ad campaign designed to highlight and criticize the administration’s EV policies on Tuesday. The ads, which describe Biden’s policies as an EV mandate, are airing in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Montana and Washington, D.C.
Climate Power’s warning letter to local affiliates states that the broadcasters “must remove these ads from the air immediately” because “there is no pending federal ‘car ban,’ and to claim otherwise is patently false and intentionally misleading.” The letter suggests that AFPM’s ads could be in violation of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rules, and instructs the broadcasters to contact Climate Power — an Internal Revenue Service-recognized 501(c)4 that is spending more than $80 million to tout Biden’s climate policies ahead of the 2024 presidential election — to confirm that the ads are no longer running on their stations.
Because Wyss is a Swiss citizen, he is not allowed by law to directly donate to American political candidates or political committees, but the activities of his nonprofit and associated organizations have allowed him to quietly become one of the most influential individual donors in American politics today, according to The Associated Press.
In May 2021, Americans for Public Trust — a government watchdog and transparency group — filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging that Wyss, his nonprofits and affiliated organizations have “violated fundamental compliance and transparency rules” governing political spending by foreign nationals.
OBSERVATION - Censorship - that is the tool the globalists are increasing relying upon to force their narrative on the world.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Members of the so-called neo-Nazi group, known as the “Blood Tribe,” were seen proudly displaying swastika flags during a march in downtown Nashville, Tennessee.
The event, which occurred on Saturday, saw these individuals donning red T-shirts emblazoned with ‘Blood Tribe’ on the back, as they paraded through the city’s heart.
Founded in 2020 by Christopher Pohlhaus, a former Marine, Blood Tribe has since been a subject of controversy and scrutiny.
Pohlhaus, speaking to a reporter in Florida over the summer, revealed a surprising stance in the political landscape.
During questioning, the “Nazi” leader admitted he was a Biden supporter.
“My vote is useless. I think Biden’s better than Trump ’cause he sends rockets to Ukraine,” he said.
OBSERVATION - Many view this group, as well as “Patriot Front” as pseudo organizations manned by federal agents. However, the rise of these groups is a natural response to the govt endorsed anti-white actions and black groups with racist agendas. Just more evidence that any CW2 scenario that goes hot is going to be very ugly.
***
Here the news that I misplaced yesterday -
African migrants & immigrants from Eritrea in Charlotte, N.C. are rioting & attacking police. The riot coincides with Eritreans in the Netherlands also setting fires and assaulting police. Warring Eritrean factions have taken their violence to the countries they claim asylum in.
OBSERVATION - Eritrea’s here are not the only group with multiple sects having brought their sectarian violence here with them.
***
Pro-hamas elements were busy over the weekend. The pro-Hamas militants blocked numerous streets in the downtown Seattle core. They started off this afternoon at Westlake Park, flooded Pike Place Market, marched past the Amazon Spheres, and are now causing more traffic disruptions in Belltown.
Some violence was noted, but I’ve not seen any info on arrests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Vinson CSG held port call in Hawaii.
USS Roosevelt CSG at Guam
USS Eisenhower on station in the Red Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Truckers boycott of NYC is expected to begin today. Will it gain traction?
With congress in recess, most political activity is being directed towards election matters. All heck is going to hit the fan when it reconvenes later this month.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
A secret service agent is now being posted at the ‘short stairs’ to AF1 to assist biden up the stairs and avoid the multiple stumbling incidents that have occurred over the past several years.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
China’s cyber attacks have grown to a ‘scale greater than we’d seen before’, the FBI director has advised amid fears that US infrastructure is under threat.
Christopher Wray gave the grave warning as intelligence chiefs and politicians met at the Munich annual security conference on Sunday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
He said Beijing’s plan to secretly plant technology inside the US critical infrastructure has become a significant threat to national security.
Wray cited Volt Typhoon, the moniker given to the Chinese hacking network that infiltrated the US last year, but said it’s only the ‘tip of the iceberg.’
Under ‘Volt Typhoon’ Beijing’s military have burrowed into more than 20 major suppliers in the last year alone including a water utility in Hawaii, a major West Coast port and at least one oil and gas pipeline, analysts revealed weeks ago.
They have bypassed elaborate cyber security systems by intercepting passwords and log-ins unguarded by junior employees, leaving China ‘sitting on a stockpile of strategic’ vulnerabilities.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13098111/China-hack-infrastructure-FBI-warning.html
OBSERVATION - China’s asymmetrical warfare doctrine will definitely come into play if/when they move on Taiwan.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Illegals more and more are generating more crime of all flavors (larceny, murder, etc).
China –
The Philippines announces that China has started using cyanide fishing to ‘intentionally destroy’ the Scarborough Shoal fishing grounds for Filipino fishermen.
The shoal belongs to the Philippines according to international law but China claims it as its own.
Phillipines –
See “China “ above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Under review - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
See “Europe / NATO General” Below regarding Russian threats toward Norway
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Moscow will fire nuclear weapons at Washington and other Western capitals if it is forced to give up the Ukrainian territory it has taken over, Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has warned, according to a Daily Mail report on Sunday. He emphasized that “the West should not think that in such a scenario the leadership of Russia will ‘tremble in its hand’ in pushing the nuclear button.”
OBSERVATION - Medvedev has been making nuclear attack threats regularly, especially since Russia started its war with Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
4 Shahed drones were shot down overnight. Explosions reported near Kremenchuk, Kropivnitsky and Poltava - eastern Ukraine.
Russian troops are attacking in 5 directions at once, while Ukraine lacks weapons and soldiers - New York Times
Russians are attacking simultaneously in Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Map at the link below
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGrqjDWW0AAPMG7?format=jpg&name=medium
Initial reports from this Russian offensive are mixed for Russia. Zaporizhzhia (Robotyne). The defense forces defeated yesterday’s attempt! 18/30 units of the involved equipment were destroyed, ~70 occupants were killed, 80 were wounded. Russians were driven back to their previous positions. Follow on attacks, Ukrainian Forces are claimed to have now withdrawal from defensive positions to the south and west of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region following a significant assault by Russian mechanized infantry with the support of tactical air and armor; Russian ground troops appear to have entered at least the outskirts of the Town.
West of Bakhmut, Russians are attacking Ivanivske. Heavy battles are taking place. Earlier today, a combined mechanized attack on Bohdanivka, a bit north of Ivanivske, was repelled.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, two more Russian fighter planes have been shot down, two Su-34s and Su-35S. This makes 6 Russian fighter jets destroyed in 3 days.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian Army has struck a large Russian oil depot near Makiivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The reports of extensive Russian operations in the areas noted above indicate that Russia has finally kicked off its winter/spring offensive. Two key items of note -
- 1. Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka and are pressing the CAS in these other areas.
- 2. The attacks seem to be much more organized than previous Russian attacks of the past year.
However, as noted in the attacks towards Robotyne and even Avdiivka, they are still suffering from poor tactical actions - mass charges across open areas into kill zones. So far the key reason for their success is the apparent lack of Ukraine artillery support due to ammo shortages.
Russian CAS is at a cost, losing 6 modern fighter bombers in 2-3 days. Russia only has so many of these flight worthy due to parts shortages and war losses.
Ukraine is facing a larger Russian army, with a resumed artillery advantage and more aggressive CAS. I don’t see things changing until Ukraine gets substantially rearmed with artillery ammo.
Europe / NATO General –
Russia issues threats against Norway over “sovereignty issues” in Svalbard
Russian Deputy PM Yuri Trutnev compares the situation there for Russians with Ukraine:
“Today, our warriors are spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country & the right to speak Russian”
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
- Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel expects the fight in Gaza to last another 6-8 months.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The Israeli government announces the agreement on the return of residents of Sderot and towns adjacent to Gaza, starting at the beginning of next March.
****
Netanyahu says Israel doesn’t recognize debate in Hague over ‘occupation’ of West Bank
“Israel does not recognize the legitimacy of the discussion at the International Court of Justice in the Hague regarding the ‘legality of the occupation,’ a move designed to harm Israel’s right to defend itself against existential threats,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
“The discussion in the Hague is part of the Palestinian attempt to dictate the results of the political settlement without negotiation. We will continue to repel this attempt, and the government and the Knesset are united in rejecting this unacceptable trend.”
***
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Saturday called for Palestinians in Judea and Samaria to be barred from the Temple Mount in Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins on March 10. “It is forbidden to allow residents from the Palestinian Authority to enter Israel in any way. We cannot take chances and risks,” Ben-Gvir wrote on X.
****
Hamas is looking for a successor for Yahya Sinwar as communications with the Gaza chief broke down completely, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a Sunday situational assessment.
“Hamas has no trust in its commanders,” Gallant said in a visit to the IDF’s Southern Command. “Hamas’s Gaza branch returns no answer - there are no leaders on the field to speak with.
“This means there is an auction happening to decide who runs Gaza...[Currently,] there is no one in control, and there is no one leading operations.”
****
Israel will launch an offensive in Rafah by Ramadan unless Hamas frees all hostages, said Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz.
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Israel’s delay may be attributed to moving hundreds of thousands of non-combatant out of Rafah and into expanded facilities being built north of the town at the Al-Mawasi ‘humanitarian area’
Link below to map.
****
Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, the UN agency for “Palestinian refugees”, accused Israel on Saturday of aiming to “destroy” the organization.
In an interview with the Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger, Lazzarini claimed that Israel has a “long-term political goal” of eliminating UNRWA.
“At the moment, we are dealing with an expanded, concentrated Israeli campaign, which is aimed at destroying UNRWA,” Lazzarini charged.
On Friday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told foreign reporters that Israel has found intelligence that more than 30 of UNRWA’s employees actively participated in the massacre, and assisted in the kidnapping of civilians and soldiers.
****
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Jerusalem expects intense fighting to continue in Gaza for another six to eight weeks, including in Rafah city, before scaling back the war effort, Reuters reported on Monday.
“Military chiefs believe they can significantly damage Hamas’ remaining capabilities in that time, paving the way for a shift to a lower-intensity phase of targeted airstrikes and special forces operations,” the report stated, citing two Israeli officials and two regional officials familiar with the strategy.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi shot down an American drone, MQ9, in Al-Hudaydah Governorate, western Yemen .
The U.S. Navy announces that the Houthis have for the first time tried to attack US vessels in the Red Sea with an unmanned underwater drone (UUV). The drone was spotted and destroyed before it got anywhere close to the ships.
A significant fire is reported to be burning aboard the Belize-Flagged Commercial Shipping Vessel, M/V Rubymar after it was struck earlier by a Houthi Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile while transiting north through the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea. Reports that the crew was forced to abandoned ship after vessel was struck.
CENTCOM: Feb. 17 Summary of Red Sea activities – Between the hours of 3:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. (Sanaa time), Feb. 17, CENTCOM successfully conducted five self-defense strikes against three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vessel (UUV), and one unmanned surface vessel (USV) in Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. This is the first observed Houthi employment of a UUV since attacks began in Oct.
***
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed Monday’s decision and posted on social media platform X, formerly Twitter: “Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests.”
The EU-led mission, called Aspides, the ancient Greek word for shield, will involve sending three European warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the leaders of major American Jewish Organizations to pressure Hamas to release the Israeli hostages by pressing its sponsor Qatar to exert its influence on the terror group.
“I urge you to press Qatar to press Hamas, because we want our hostages released,” Netanyahu said in a speech to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations (CoP), held in Jerusalem on Sunday.
NOTE - Qatar has been ‘hosting’ the senior leadership of Hamas for many years now. The three Hamas leaders have a combined net worth in the tens of billions of dollars.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthi have become more aggressive in their attacks over the past couple days. As long as the US does minimal interdiction, they will continue to press their attacks. The introduction of a unmanned drone submarine will complicate matters - making detection difficult as well as hits at ship waterlines increase the chance of sinking vessels.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Reports of a resurgent Al Qaeda reestablishing bases and training in country.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Medicaid’s new guidelines, which allow states to direct a portion of funding to new health care initiatives such as rent or utilities, mirror the World Economic Forum’s guidelines for “health equity;” ideas that have been decades in the making.
The Biden administration’s Medicaid guidelines recently expanded to allow states to devote up to 3% of their Medicaid spending to experimental subsidies so long as they add in their own funding and evaluate the outcomes.
Guidance comes out of the Biden administration’s U.S. Playbook to Address Social Determinants of Health, which lists housing security, food security, education access, and “healthy environment” as the top causes for inequal outcomes.
The push for “health equity” comes at the same time the World Economic Forum has published guidelines for health care and “urban transformation.
The study lists a series of “social determinants” of health care, all of which are included in the U.S. playbook.
“Socioeconomic status, education, neighborhood and physical environment, employment, and social support networks,” as well as “access to health care” are listed as the determining factors for a citizen’s health.
https://www.theblaze.com/news/medicaid-who-wef-framework-marmot
OBSERVATION - This will do next to nothing to improve health care, but only expand the greater social welfare system and waste. Note how the deep state bureaucrats utilize globalist standards in a way that bypasses congressional oversight (not that they have done such a cheery job lately anyway). Also notice just how loosely the concept of health care is applied. The medical community and WHO have already implied that global warming and gun control fall within their purview for such health care.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
See influx of Chinese illegals under “Illegals”
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Less than a year out from the 2024 election, Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in hypothetical matchups across several key swing states. As many of Biden’s top allies worry about the president’s reelection chances, officials see his State of the Union address as a turning point that could help stunt talks about the 81-year-old’s fitness for office, Axios reported.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/02/19/team-joe-biden-state-union-campaign-2024-hail-mary/
OBSERVATION - They think they can recreate his 2023 SOTU. However, is mental faculties have been plummeting of late. Big roll of the dice.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
(FO) According to Biden officials, the Biden White House is planning an EO that would claim to attempt to slow the flow of illegal immigrants over the southern border It could announced prior to the State of the Union on 7 March. Initial reports suggest that the proposed EO will very unlikely stop the immigration crisis and will likely include policies that incentivize illegal immigration as the Senate border bill did.
OBSERVATION - Attempt to be made to show the republicans as lax on border issues.
***
Michigan State is now asking residents to house illegals in their homes
This call echos similar from other states. Some commentators are asking when it will be made mandatory for citizens to start housing illegals.
****
Mayor Eric Adams has decided to cut the police force by 6000 officers in order to pay for illegals. The result is NY police officers will be cut by 1/5, or 13.5%, by postponing the next 5 Academy classes, bringing officers below 30,000, down from 36,000. These are the numbers we saw in the 80s and 90s. This is being done to house and feed anonymous, unvetted illegal aliens from around the world.
OBSERVATION - Crime by illegals is skyrocketing. Criminal cartel from Venezuela has set up shop and is terrorizing citizens, as well as organizing ties to MS-13. NYC is fast becoming unlivable.
***
The number of Chinese illegal immigrants crossing the southern border illegally has skyrocketed by 4,000 percent since 2021.
Fox News’ Bill Melugin, reporting from the southern border, recounted that his Spanish speaking skills are “not doing me a whole lot of good down here” in Jacumba, California, as “we’re getting a massive explosion of Chinese nationals crossing the border.”
Earlier in the year, it was revealed that the Biden administration had reduced the vetting process for illegal immigrants from China.
An April 2023 email to around 500 Border Patrol agents instructed the agents to reduce the number of interview questions for Chinese illegal immigrants who are apprehended.
The list of questions was cut down from 40 to just five. This allowed a fast-track of the release of Chinese illegal immigrants into the interior of the United States and has made it more difficult for CBP agents to identify national security threats.
OBSERVATION - There can be only one reason for this - biden seeks to have the country overthrown by China aided illegals.
China –
Taiwan has accused China’s coast guard of triggering “panic”, after six Chinese officials briefly boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat.
They checked the ship’s route plan, certificate and crew licenses, and left half an hour later.
It comes less than a week after a Chinese fishing boat was pursued by Taiwan’s coast guard in the same area. The boat later capsized, killing two.
Beijing later said it would step up patrols in the Kinmen archipelago.
Kinmen lies just 3km(1.86 mi) away from China’s south-eastern coast, placing it on the frontline of tensions between China and Taiwan.
OPBSERVATION - Tensions have been growing as these coast guard interactions have been increasing. Kinmen Island is low hanging fruit to a Chinese takeover, and may be used as a trial run since Taiwan would be unable to defend it militarily.
North/South Korea –
Japan –
The Japanese were protesting recently about Muslim immigration, as it seems associated with violence, ingratitude & sexual assaults. During the anti invasion protest. These Muslims shouted “Japanese will die out” whilst jeering and abusing the frustrated natives.
OBSERVATION - Japan doesn’t allow inflow of migrants, these moslems are present as workers. Japan has been experiencing a lot of islamic based mayhem lately and the society is not taking that kindly.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Ukraine –
10 years ago Russia started its war against Ukraine by capturing Crimea.
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Intense fighting around Robotyne and eastern front areas. Reports indicate that Russia is continuing its brute force and ignorance attacks straight into Ukrainian kill zones and are suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian pull backs seem at the moment to be due to consolidating onto more defensible and prepared positions.
However, Ukraine is still suffering severe shortages of ammo, particularly artillery, which it needs to fend off these mass attacks more efficiently.
Russia for its part, seems to have commanders that are trying to duplicate the success at Avdiivka, but at this rate not doing as well. I expect continued vicious fighting along the five axises of attack - Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Continued intense ground combat in the Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Belarus -
Lukashenko said that two divisions of Iskander-M missile systems, including tactical nuclear weapons, have been deployed in the country. He also revealed the introduction of the latest Polonez-M anti-aircraft missile system with a range of up to 300 km. Additionally, he announced the incorporation of two S-400 anti-aircraft missile divisions.
OBSERVATION - Haven’t heard much from putin’s puppet in a while.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Reports Sinwar and some hostages may have escaped to Egypt.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu - I”n recent days, we are witnessing pressure of a new kind, represented by an attempt to impose the establishment of a Palestinian state, and this will constitute a threat to the existence of the State of Israel.”
***
Saudi media reports that Israel has information and assessments that indicate that Hamas leaders have escaped into Egypt.
The potential fugitives include both Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed as well as other senior figures in the organization.
The fugitives are thought to have escaped along with other Hamas officials through tunnels between Rafah and Sinai.
Along with the fear that top Hamas officials have escaped Israeli forces, there is a growing concern that they have taken Israeli hostages with them.
***
Biden is pushing for a United Nations vote on a “temporary ceasefire” in a break with the Israeli government as its troops prepare for an assault on the city, in south Gaza.
In a draft resolution, the US warns that a ground offensive into the city, where more than one million Palestinians are sheltering, would have “serious implications for regional peace and security”.
NOTE - Many see this as the start of a 180 turn against Israel by biden.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israeli newspaper: The army withdraws the last reserve brigade from Gaza as the end of the Khan Yunis operation approaches. Active duty forces remain.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
Heavy airstrikes reportedly conducted in the Sidon area in Southern Lebanon.
The airstrikes were allegedly carried out by Israeli aircraft on the village of Al-Ghaziyeh “and the outskirts of the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp” according to Roya News. Massive secondary explosions noted.
****
The French newspaper Libération reported that according to its investigation, the tunnel network dug by the Hezbollah terrorist organization is even more extensive and sophisticated than the tunnel system created by Hamas under the Gaza Strip.
The tunnels dug by Hezbollah over the last 30 years are hundreds of kilometers in total length and descend to a depth of up to 80 meters. The tunnels were dug through stone, with the aid of North Korean technology.
According to the report, Hezbollah’s tunnels extend underneath Lebanon’s borders with Syria and Israel and violate the sovereign territory of both countries.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/385472
OBSERVATION - IDF has reported that Hamas fighters apparently have lost all contact with senior leadership - this may account for it.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Israeli forces entered the towns of Al-Khader and Husan in the Bethlehem District, south of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran-backed Houthis sunk a British ship in the Red Sea on Monday and attacked two US ships in the Gulf of Aden.
According to reports: “The United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) reported Monday that the Houthis sunk a ship traveling in the Red Sea , south of the port city of Mukha in Yemen. It is the the first time since the start of Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza that a crew had to abandon their ship because of the Houthis.”
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 60NM north of Djibouti, Djibouti. The Master reports that the vessel has been hit by an Uncrewed Aerial System resulting in superficial damage to the accommodation superstructure. The crew are reported to be safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call.
Pentagon intelligence assessment: “The Houthis maintained their offensive capabilities despite the American and British strikes”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Belgian Foreign Ministry: 26 European Union member states demand that Israel not carry out military action in Rafah
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
It is very likely that Sinwar and his brother Mohammed along with a human shield of hostages excepted Gaza via smuggling tunnels from Rafah into Egypt. Israel yesterday reported that Hamas fighters have lost all contact with their senior leadership and were struggling to find out who was in charge and what their new orders were.
Egypt has been making efforts to prevent tunneling, Hamas has proved to be able to stay one step ahead of it. The big question is - Is Egypt actively seeking to find these fugitives. Egypt has no love for Hamas as they have been trouble makers in that country as well.
The US is on the verge of major losses in the Red Sea region and needs to ramp up strikes on Houthi logistics and infrastructure in a major way. Currently, US efforts are appearing to be more and more impotent in stopping Houthi attacks on shipping. However, the biden regime is so paranoid about escalating the conflict, especially with Iran involved that they appear to be paralyzed form stronger actions. Houthi see weakness- as I’ve said time and again - as an opening to be even more aggressive.
Israel in reference to Ramadan, give a window as to when they may well enter Rafah by. International efforts to prevent that continue to ramp up. biden is even threatening moves in the UN to sanction Israel in a 180 turn on US policy. The younger, more pro-hamas marxists in the democrat party - an age group biden desperately needs for any chance of victory in November - has been clamoring for the end of US support of Israel, and biden’ may be bending towards that end.
Misc of Note –
I’ve said that I started screening the many inter web sites for early warnings of actions that would ultimately affect the safety and security of my family. This is a never ending process, intel folks refer to as the OODA loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.
Application of this principle assists in identifying the most serious threats and helps prioritize one’s efforts to mitigate effects. However, the speed at which things have been spinning apart over the last year has left me panting trying to keep up.
Over the past 15 years I’ve seen my major threats shift from mostly act of God (natural events) to that of societal collapse. And even that threat has gotten complicated in that there are many, significant triggering events that could start the dominos falling. For example -
- Economic collapse (severe recession / depression)
Secondary effects - Rioting, looting, bank failures, shortages of essentials
Tertiary effects - opportunistic terror attacks on infrastructure, initiation of wars.
CW2, open fighting and rebellion against a turned tyrannical govt
Secondary affects - Economic collapse (see above),
Tertiary affects - Martial law, low level warfare, internal conflict in active duty forces
Just a couple I’ve been looking at. Societal collapse’s triggers are becoming more hair triggered especially as we approach the Nov elections (and likely beyond). They all point to one disturbing fact - there is a big storm coming, so big that its whole ramifications are hard to not only define but accept (contra to normalcy bias) as a component of future planning.
Whoops, my post from yesterday is linked above.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WHO transgender guidelines committee meeting this week.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Gay activists in Seattle have declared a “homosexual intifada.”
After another pro-Hamas/anti-Israel march and rally that took over city streets that Seattle mayor Bruce Harrell ceded, the extremists plastered their signage around downtown Seattle. That’s when we started seeing a new flyer showing two men with faces covered with keffiyeh while embracing in a kiss. The pink-hued message says “Homo-sexual Intifada” in all caps.
https://mynorthwest.com/3951404/rantz-seattle-activists-declare-homosexual-intifada/
OBSERVATION - A prime example of useful idiots. The LGBT group think that they found an ally, when in reality they are only going to be used - perhaps even as cannon fodder. Here in the US the enemy of my enemy principle is still engaged and one day the radical moslems will be tossing their LGBT allies off roofs.
Recently, the most violent sector of the LGBT community has been the Transtifa (Trans + Antifa) elements who’s violence last fall targeted those opposing transitions of youth/children. Recent mass shootings have involved over a half dozen trans shooters. With the Gaza war, the pro-hamas elements have provided the impetus for violent protests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Discussions on the inter webs that the US is looking at increasing the number of carriers operating in the western Pacific from 2 to 5 in response to Chinese aggression.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Red Cross is not only screening applicants for their vax status but also requiring them to undergo additional scrutiny if they self-report COVID vaccination: “Have you EVER had a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine? If you answer YES to the question, please call 1-800-RED CROSS… before coming in to donate to determine if this will affect your eligibility.”
OBSERVATION - Speculation is that this is due to factors that the nRNA can transfer across to the receiver of the donation that cannot be filtered out. Yep, indicators that the jab is not as safe and effective as was advertised.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Calls for congress to reconvene early in order to vote on the Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid package. Doesn’t look like that is going to happen. Rumors of Johnson and biden meeting on this as well as border security.
***
The judgement on trump of nearly a half billion to be ponied up BEFORE an appeal can be made makes it really clear that this is a political judgment.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
They shifted biden to the short stairs into AF1 in order to keep him from stumbling up the long stairs. Well, in spite of a SS guy trying to prevent stumbles, biden stumbled twice on the short stairs.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The Biden administration has secretly been slashing the number of illegal immigrants who must post bond to enter the United States in a policy of “releasing everyone,” according to a former top Department of Homeland Security official.
In revealing its policy under a Freedom of Information Act demand, the administration also showed that it is setting the price of bonds lower than during the Trump administration and requiring a near-record low number of immigrants to pay them.
“The Biden administration is dismantling the detention and bonds programs by simply releasing every illegal alien it can into the United States. And they’re not too concerned about ever locating them ever again. Just mass, lawless chaos without any attempt at actual management,” said Feere, the director of investigations with the Center for Immigration Studies.
OBSERVATION - Deliberate action to flood the country with illegals who are capable and very willing to commit crimes and wreck the immigration system.
***
Looking back on the anemic turnouts at pro-hamas protests over the weekend, it appears things may be losing traction to keep the rabble fired up. It will take something bigger at this stage to foment more large protests. Meanwhile, smaller efforts continue, targeting various individuals and events.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024,
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin: Russia categorically opposes the deployment of nuclear weapons in space.
The US has told allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year, per people familiar with the matter. - Bloomberg
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down another Russian Su-34 striker-bomber this morning. 7 aircraft in 7 days, valued at around $350 million in total.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia’s more aggressive use of fighter/bombers in support of ground forces is coming at a high cost, with the loss of more Su-34/35 airframes, 7 within the last week alone. Though on paper they have a fair number of these aircraft, reality is many are grounded due to lack of parts, meaning fewer combat ready aircraft.
I expect continued Russian offensive efforts at the 5 locations I expect Ukraine to make Russia pay dearly for every inch of ground they are forced to give up. If Ukraine is able to restore the supplies of artillery and ADA munitions, the Russian offensive will quickly grind to a halt.
I also expect Russia to start to unleash larger missile / drone attacks to take advantage of Ukrainian shortages in the ADA realm as well. A lot of targeting will be against civilian infrastructure (power and water), but others will be closer to the front lines to soften up deeper areas for quicker action.
Belarus -
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has warned that the world ‘has again come to the brink of the abyss’ and that there are legitimate concerns that a Third World War could erupt.
Vladimir Putin’s top ally said ‘we must be prepared as much as possible to neutralise risks and threats’ as he spoke at a meeting with senior officials in Minsk.
During the meeting that included National Intelligence and Law Enforcement Agencies across Belarus, President Aleksandr Lukashenko claimed that Polish and U.S. Intelligence Agencies are preparing “Provocations” against Civilian Centers in Poland which will then be Blamed on Russia and Belarus.
OBSERVATION - Some are speculating that Lukashenko is telegraphing a false flag event to blame on Poland.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- US vetoed a Scty Council resolution to order a cease fire in Gaza
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The United States vetoed an Arab-backed U.N. resolution Tuesday demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war in the embattled Gaza Strip.
The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 13-1 with the United Kingdom abstaining. It was the third US veto of a Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.
***
Israel has identified hundreds of UN relief workers as also being members of Hamas combat units.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Two missiles were launched towards the Israeli Ruwaisat Al-Alam site in the Kafr Shuba hills in southern Lebanon
IAF conducted strikes deeper into Lebanon, targeting among others Hezbollah leadership and ammo dumps.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Three Israeli guided missiles targeted an apartment inhabited by Iranian militias in a building behind an Iranian school in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood in Damascus, Syria.
Reports of Israeli bombing targeting the Dimas area, northwest of Damascus, and the sound of explosions being heard in the vicinity of the capital.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Anti-aircraft guns at the American base in the Koniko field respond to an attack with drones launched by armed groups in Deir ez-Zor
Houthi continues firing at shipping in the Red Sea regions.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthis continue to become more aggressive in their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region. If the US doesn’t launch a massive strike - and over a considerable number of days - the chances are increasing of a major success by Houthi’s - hitting a US naval vessel. US impotency in stopping the Houthis is forcing even more ships to divert around Africa - increasing shipping times, and costs.
The increased success in Houthi targeting is likely attributed to Iranian vessels hovering around the same region. Taking out these ‘eyes’ would hamper Houthi targeting, but increase the threat of a more direct confrontation with Iran.
Bottom line - the US is losing the fight in the Red Sea.
Venezuela -
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vowed to bar US petroleum giant ExxonMobil from the waters off the oil-rich region of Essequibo, which Caracas claims from Guyana as its own.
The head of ExxonMobil in Guyana, Alistair Routledge, revealed plans this month for two exploratory wells off the coast of Essequibo, saying the company wanted to develop new sites in an area where there was no existing infrastructure.
“ExxonMobil is not entering this sea… they should know that,” Maduro said in televised remarks on Monday.
Caracas has long claimed the Essequibo region — which makes up about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory — but has amped up its rhetoric since its neighbor began issuing licenses for oil companies to operate there.
Just after plans for the new wells were announced, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that ExxonMobil would “receive a proportional, forceful response” if drilling began.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela continues to build military bases near the Guyana border. It is only a matter of time before they invade in an effort to seize the western 2/3s of the country. Largely driven by recent resource discoveries like the oil in the region.
No post from me today - have an abundance of other things I’ve got to deal with today. Will begin the process of catching up tomorrow.
Thanks Godzilla. Get stuff done. Looking forward to tomorrow.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
At CPAC, El Salvador President Bukele issues a chilling warning about America turning into El Salvador. Central American illegals will drive violent crime / gangs in a manner similar to El Salvador prior to his crackdown.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is working with a left-wing advocacy group to boost voter turnout as part of President Joe Biden’s executive order directing federal agencies to get involved in elections.
The USDA worked directly with Demos, a New York-based group that helped draft Biden’s Executive Order 14019, according to records obtained by The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project. (The Daily Signal is Heritage’s news outlet.)
Biden signed his order on agencies and voter registration in March 2021. On Aug. 9, 2021, Demos’ Adam Lioz emailed USDA officials, many in the office of Secretary Tom Vilsack, under the subject line: “Demos Meeting on Voting Rights EO.”
***
Under the guise of protecting the “civil rights” of students, the Biden administration unveiled a new regulation purporting to force government schools nationwide to bow before all the invented “gender identities” and sexual perversions that now dominate the “education” system. The rule would also purport to overturn state laws banning males in girls’ sports.
The controversial mandate, which would apply to any government schools accepting federal funds, seeks to demolish Trump-era protections for girls — especially their privacy, sports, and ability to have sex-segregated spaces. If it ends up going through, government schools would supposedly be required to allow males in girls’ school bathrooms, locker rooms, showers, and sports.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Pharmacies across the country were reporting delays to prescription orders due to a cyberattack against one of the nation’s largest healthcare technology companies.
Change Healthcare, a company handling orders and patient payments throughout the U.S., first noticed the “cyber security issue” affecting its networks Wednesday morning on the East Coast.
“Change Healthcare is experiencing a network interruption related to a cyber security issue and our experts are working to address the matter. Once we became aware of the outside threat, in the interest of protecting our partners and patients, we took immediate action to disconnect our systems to prevent further impact,” Change Healthcare said in a statement.
****
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) were looking into an AT&T outage, and that the Federal Communications Commission was in touch with the company.
Kirby said the Department of Commerce faced some disruptions as a result of the outage but those were not “crippling.”
The FCC said it was investigating the incident, while the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which is a unit of DHS, said it was working with AT&T to understand the cause.
Users of Verizon, T-Mobile and US cellular also faced disruptions, but they were more limited than the AT&T reports.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/outage/2024/02/22/id/1154612/
LATEST - AT&T said the hours long outage to its U.S. cellphone network Thursday appeared not to be the result of a malicious attack.
The outage knocked out cellphone service for thousands of its users across the U.S. starting early Thursday before it was restored.
“Based on our initial review, we believe that today’s outage was caused by the application and execution of an incorrect process used as we were expanding our network, not a cyber attack,” the Dallas-based company said.
OBSERVATION - ATT is trying to downplay its network loss. However, that so many other carriers were hit at the same time does suggest a cyber attack of some kind.
While solar flares can affect communication systems, it is highly unlikely that two X-flares yesterday contributed to the widely reported cell phone outages. The flares, while intense, did not cause a solar radiation storm. Moreover, the shortwave radio blackouts they did cause were too brief and too low in frequency to interfere with most cell phone communications.
The extent of the outages across multiple providers suggests an attack. Trying to deflect from that would be logical to prevent panic.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Chinese have become the second largest group entering the US in the San Diego sector.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
With the two year anniversary of the current Ukraine war (remember, it really started 10 years ago with the capture of Crimea) many have been trying to assess the cost to Russia to get where they are at today. The following is a summary that fits pretty well with other estimates.
Overall Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to February 15, 2024, are estimated as follows:
Personnel: Around 399,090
Tanks: 6,442
IFV (Infantry Fighting Armored Vehicles): 12,090
Artillery systems: 9,620
MLRS (Multiple launch rocket systems): 984
Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 671
Aircraft: 332
Helicopters: 325
UAV operational-tactical level: 7,404
Cruise missiles: 1,882
Warships/boats: 25
Submarines: 1
Vehicles and fuel tankers: 12,691
Special equipment: 1,524
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240222.aspx
These numbers, especially the combat personnel losses are slightly more conservative than others, but not by much. By all metrics, this war has been very costly for Russia and as markedly diminished its capabilities to press the fight into the Balkan regions or Eastern Europe.
***
Biden says the new sanctions against Russia “will target individuals connected to Navalny’s imprisonment as well as Russia’s financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and sanctions evaders across multiple continents. They will ensure Putin pays an even steeper price”
Logistics –
Iran has provided Russia with approx 400 ballistic missiles, including many from the Fateh-110 family, such as the Zolfaghar. In contrast with North Korean BMs, Iranian made ones are known to be considerably more accurate.
Economic Impact –
The United States has introduced a large-scale package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and the recent death of Russian opposition leader Navalny. The sanctions will be directed against individuals associated with the imprisonment of Navalny, as well as against the Russian financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and individuals who evade sanctions on many continents.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 31 Shahed drones overnight. Russian army also launched 3 S-300 missiles, Kh-31P missile and 2 Kh-22 missiles
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut & Avdiivka.
A Russia milblogger was found dead after being ordered to remove a post where he states that an estimated 16,000 Russians were killed in the 4 month effort to seize Avdiivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Ukraine is continuing to give up ground as artillery shortages persist. This has created a significant swing of momentum in favor of Russian forces. Yet Ukraine is still inflicting severe losses on the Russian advances that could threaten them to stall before any significant objective can be obtained.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Officials in Transnistria will meet on Feb 28th supposedly to officially ask to be annexed by Russia.
The head of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, is convening a congress of deputies at all levels, most likely next week.
The congress may issue an appeal to Putin requesting the admission of Transnistria into Russia.
Such a risky move could lead to a military attack by Moldova and the Ukrainian army.
OBSERVATION - Transnistria poses a throne in the back of NATO - Romania particularly. Should they seek annexation and is granted (very likely), any moves by Moldova or NATO would bring Russian retaliation. The nature of that retaliation is uncertain given how deeply it is tied up in Ukraine, but could be enough of a deterrent to stop any actions.
Belarus -
The Minister of Defense of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, accused Ukraine of forming a strike group of 112.000-114.000 troops on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Roughly 17.000 would be part of the regular border defense.
OBSERVATION - Belarus has become very vocal of late. It seems that an effort to build up friction with Ukraine is underway. The possibility of a false flag is rising. Belarus’ military has been benefitting from a lot of training by former Wagner forces, which may have reached a point where they could be considered to be a threat. When the Ukraine war started, the Belarus forces were assessed to be the worst trained army in the region. That may no longer be the case.
Europe / NATO General –
The French ambassador to the U.S. warned a “real war is possible” for NATO countries on the border with Russia. Laurent Bili, speaking during a Washington Post online event Tuesday, connected the deterrence NATO provides in the current war between Russia and Ukraine to how the alliance deterred Soviet aggression after governments like Czechoslovakia and Poland during the Cold War.
Members “on the front line” bordering Russia or Ukraine, and France and Germany believe “real war is possible” in Europe again. For France, that means putting the nation on “a war footing” in defense spending and revitalizing its industrial base, he said.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Victims of the Hamas terror attack in Israel on October 7 announced Thursday that they have filed a federal lawsuit against the Associated Press (AP) for allegedly paying members of Hamas who also functioned as “stringer” photographers for the company.
The AP was forced to cut ties with one freelance photographer, Hassan Eslaiah, who was seen holding a grenade near the Gaza border during the attack, and who had earlier posed for a photograph with Gaza-based Hamas terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar.
Later, an AP freelancer was reported by the HonestReporting watchdog organization to have broadcast a live video, along with a Reuters freelance photographer, allegedly encouraging Gazans to participate in the October 7 attack while it was still ongoing.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
IDF captured more Hamas terrorists in the Khan Younis region as well as locating and destroying more bunkers and rocket launch points.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis announced that they targeted the Israeli port of Eilat with missiles and remotely piloted aircraft.
***
The head of the Houthi rebels in Yemen said Thursday attacks on ships in the Red Sea will escalate despite the U.S. military striking targets held by the Iranian-backed terror group.
“Operations in the Red and Arabian seas, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden are continuing, escalating, and effective,” Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on the group’s Al-Masirah channel, reported The Times of Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthi recognize that the US forces have once again become a paper tiger and are ramping up their attacks. Until the US hits them in a strong manner, I expect that these attacks will follow their declaration and increase in both number and lethality.
Until the US decides it is going to take real action, the Houthi’s will continue to win.
Iran –
See Russia above - supplying ballistic missiles in addition to drones.
That is no doubt part of the plan to destroy America.
They will use the satellite outage as as a perceived threat to increase government action when it was the 2 solar flares within 24 hours that crippled and destroyed satellites while in orbit.
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. ~~ At least someone is trying to make the world a better place.
Thanks for the scorecard.
GO! GO! THERE GOES TOKYO!
GO GO GODZILLA!
The New York Times should be running this story on their front page.
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