Why the world needs Ukrainian victory

1. To halt atrocity. Russia's occupation is genocidal. Wherever the Ukrainians recover territory, they save lives, and re-establish the principle that people have a right not to be tortured, deported, and murdered.

2. To preserve the international legal order. Its basis is that one country may not invade another and annex its territory, as Russia seeks to do. Russia's war of aggression is obviously illegal, but the legal order does not defend itself.

3. To end an era of empire. This could be the last war fought on the colonial logic that another state and people do not exist. But this turning point is reached only if Russia loses.

4. To defend the peace project of the European Union. Russia's war is not directed only against Ukraine, but against the larger idea that European states can peacefully cooperate. If empire prevails, integration fails.

5. To give the rule of law a chance in Russia. So long as Russia fights imperial wars, it is trapped in repressive domestic politics. Coming generations of Russians could live better and freer lives, but only if Russia loses this war.

6. To weaken the prestige of tyrants. In this century, the trend has been towards authoritarianism, with Putinism as a force and a model. Its defeat by a democracy reverses that trend. Fascism is about force, and is discredited by defeat.

7. To remind us that democracy is the better system. Ukrainians have internalized the idea that they choose their own leaders. In taking risks to protect their democracy, they remind us that we all must act to protect ours..."

There isn’t an example of a large US population living in one place so that they were a majority being attacked by a foreign entity. So you can’t say the US would respond differently from Russia because this has never happened to the US. I’d wager there would be a major military response if there was a similar situation.

When Ukraine had governments that were more closely aligned with Russia as opposed to the West/NATO there was no conflict between their citizenry. Both sides have a culture and history that is similar and much closer to Russia than the west. The non Russians saw an opportunity for greater economic growth for making overtures to the EU and the US NATO. They would have known in advance that Russia could never accept a NATO member that close to their border. They chose to take this risky provocative action and thought Russia would not do anything.

You can’t defend the US actions over the Cuban Missile crisis and simultaneously defend NATO installing missile batteries in countries in Eastern Europe in close proximity to Russia.

What happened in Serbia was not precision bombing. It was an attack on a sovereign nation who posed no threat to the US. The casualties were mostly civilian also and cluster bombs were used.

Plenty of people were saying there was no evidence of Saddam having nukes or even significant stockpiles of biological or chemical weapons. In the absence of any real proof, the pretext for declaring war was extremely weak or non-existent.

I recognise the Democrat culpability for the most recent US military actions sowing chaos, such as the overthrow of Gadaffi leading to the Arab Spring and elevation of the Muslim Brotherhood and associated terror groups.

I believe the CIA has funded and armed groups like Al Queda and ISIS and almost certainly continues to do so. Many of ISIS fighters were clearly paid mercenaries and Putin has correctly pointed this out. Both groups are now fighting in Ukraine for the Ukrainian/NATO side as has been confirmed by multiple sources from the Islamic world. So you have Nazis, ISIS and Al Queda fighting for Ukraine and you wonder why some of us don’t want to put Ukrainian flags in our Twitter profiles.

Russia is not at all innocent, but they were clearly and repeatedly provoked and their response was totally predictable. The breakup of an empire where you have mixed ethnic populations is always messy, and you only have to look at the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian empire or the breakup of the former Yugoslavia to see this. There was a fine balance which had been tread for decades which was abandoned and the West was deeply involved in sowing the seeds of chaos and discord from the start and is now sacrificing Ukrainians to test out new weapons systems.

winslow: " There isn’t an example of a large US population living in one place so that they were a majority being attacked by a foreign entity.
So you can’t say the US would respond differently from Russia because this has never happened to the US. Br> I’d wager there would be a major military response if there was a similar situation. "

Except that your analogy is pure lies.
The truth is Russians ruled over Ukraine through clients and rigged elections.
In 2014, Ukrainians overthrew the Russians and elected their own leaders.
Nothing bad happened to Russians in Ukraine except they no longer ruled the country.
It didn't matter, Vlad the Invader used those events as his excuse to invade and annex Crimea, and invade the Donbass.

And, if you were any student of history you'd well know that yours is precisely the excuse Adolf Hitler used to invade and annex Austria and Czechoslovakia.
That is not the example any civilized country would want to follow.

winslow: " When Ukraine had governments that were more closely aligned with Russia as opposed to the West/NATO there was no conflict between their citizenry.
Both sides have a culture and history that is similar and much closer to Russia than the west.
The non Russians saw an opportunity for greater economic growth for making overtures to the EU and the US NATO.
They would have known in advance that Russia could never accept a NATO member that close to their border.
They chose to take this risky provocative action and thought Russia would not do anything. "

You understand, don't you, that is just insane Russian propaganda?
In fact, Russia ruled over Ukraine before 2014 through corruption, intimidation and rigged elections.
When all that ended, Russians invaded and illegally annexed Crimea, also the Donbass.
In 2022, Vlad the Invader tried to finish the job against overwhelming opposition from Ukrainians, including Russian speakers.

The only true historical examples you can point to are Hitler invading and annexing Austria and Czechoslovakia, and I think such comparisons are entirely appropriate.

winslow: "You can’t defend the US actions over the Cuban Missile crisis and simultaneously defend NATO installing missile batteries in countries in Eastern Europe in close proximity to Russia."

Of course I can, once I've corrected your lies.
First, the Cuban missile crisis was an intense negotiation in which no shots were fired and nobody killed.
It resulted in mutual withdrawals of US nuclear missiles in Turkey and Italy and Russian missiles in Cuba.
Those missiles were soon rendered obsolete and unnecessary by submarine launched ICBMs.

Today, by stark contrast, U.S. missiles in Europe are not nuclear tipped, they are strictly defensive, intended to shoot down invading aircraft and missiles.
And Russia has many similar missiles intended for the same purposes.
Such missiles represent no threat to anybody with honorable intentions.

winslow: "What happened in Serbia was not precision bombing. It was an attack on a sovereign nation who posed no threat to the US.
The casualties were mostly civilian also and cluster bombs were used. "

No, the U.S. has used precision guided "smart bombs" since the 1990's precisely to minimize so-called "collateral damage".
But as our weapons have grown ever more accurate, so have our enemies found ever more clever ways to protect themselves with "human shields".

The 1990s Yugoslav wars are said to have killed around 140,000 people.
Of those, U.S. military actions may be responsible for a handful.
So there is no legitimate comparison to Vlad the Invader's actions in Ukraine.

winslow: "Plenty of people were saying there was no evidence of Saddam having nukes or even significant stockpiles of biological or chemical weapons.
In the absence of any real proof, the pretext for declaring war was extremely weak or non-existent. "

No the truth is that some people claimed after the fact that they had opposed it before, but reviews of actual texts show nobody seriously opposed and nobody claimed Saddam had no WMD.
Indeed, Saddam himself believed he had such weapons and threatened his neighbors with them.

Regardless, there is zero equivalence with Vlad the Invader's actions in Ukraine.

winslow: "I recognise the Democrat culpability for the most recent US military actions sowing chaos, such as the overthrow of Gadaffi leading to the Arab Spring and elevation of the Muslim Brotherhood and associated terror groups. "

Sadly, the words "Democrat" and "Deep State" are nearly synonymous.
Still, I'm not willing to say everything they are accused of is necessarily true.
Nor does any of it equate to Vlad's invasion of Ukraine.

winslow: "I believe the CIA has funded and armed groups like Al Queda and ISIS and almost certainly continues to do so."

Of course, you are entitled by US law to believe whatever you wish, but I've seen no evidence to remotely support such insane claims.

winslow: "Many of ISIS fighters were clearly paid mercenaries and Putin has correctly pointed this out.
Both groups are now fighting in Ukraine for the Ukrainian/NATO side as has been confirmed by multiple sources from the Islamic world.
So you have Nazis, ISIS and Al Queda fighting for Ukraine "

I'd believe nothing from Vlad the Invader.
I would believe that Muslims he killed in Chechnya and Syria might want some revenge in Ukraine.
I'm not certain how, exactly, that invalidates the Ukrainian cause.

winslow: "Russia is not at all innocent... "

Right, and all the rest is irrelevant.

“Except that your analogy is pure lies.”

Explain how the analogy is a lie. Just stating that does not make it so.

Are you saying that Ukraine didn’t ignore the Minsk accords?
Are you saying there wasn’t Ukrainian politicians promising that ethnic Russians would be discriminated against on Ukrainian national TV by being denied their pensions etc?
Even Merkel recently commented that the plan all along was to ignore the Minsk accords and prepare for war with Russia.

I have never said I supported the invasion or felt it was justified, but Ukraine chose this route of confrontation.
They had multiple opportunities to negotiate in the months prior to the conflict and showed zero interest and they were rebuked for their stance.
Russia has been complaining bitterly for 20 plus years about NATO broken promises regarding expansion.
They have been warning Ukraine repeatedly over attacks on ethic Russians in the Donbass.

Regarding US military action in Iraq. The casualties of the war itself were over 400,000 and the sanctions probably killed over 1 million. That’s already much more than will die in this current conflict.
All the intelligence claiming Saddam had WMD was bogus and the intelligence community who supplied this so called evidence knew that. Saying “no one knew for sure he didn’t have WMD” is not a convincing argument. It’s an argument from silence effectively.

Borders change sometimes due to changing demographics and sometimes due to conflict.
Crimea was gifted to Ukraine by Russia at a time when both nations were part of the USSR. Nobody at that time expected the breakup of the USSR so at the time it seemed like a meaningless gesture. In any case they voted to join Russia by around 86% so if you believe in self determination then it’s clear they prefer to be part of Russia than part of Ukraine. Forcing them to re-join Ukraine against their will doesn’t seem right.

Election rigging happens everywhere and the US knows all about it. Having cordial relations with your neighbour especially when your neighbour is a nuclear superpower is just common sense, and the Ukrainians understood that well. Not to mention that they were heavily dependent on Russian gas and deeply indebted and behind in their payments. Obama stirred up that conflict just like he sparked the Arab Spring.

So what if the missiles in Europe are not nuclear tipped now? We don’t know if the long term intention for those missile sites is intended to be purely defensive. I think it’s naive to think that.

ISIS were riding around in fleets of US army jeeps. They had loads of them. There was at least a couple of occasions where they were going out to engage the Syrian army and the US “accidentally” bombed the Syrian army and helped ISIS. This behaviour changed after Trump got elected admittedly.

The current war is not the West’s war.
Ukraine would never have soured it’s relations with Russia had it not been made all sorts of promises by NATO and the EU.
The conflict is not affecting the US but in Europe our energy costs have more than doubled, and an already bad immigration and housing crisis has been made lots worse.
Stop sending arms to Ukraine now. Tell them they can’t be in NATO ever. Force them to make a deal with Russia or the conflict will escalate further.
They can’t win anyway. All they can do is force more men, most of whom don’t want to fight, to go to their deaths.

winslow: " Are you saying that Ukraine didn’t ignore the Minsk accords?
Are you saying there wasn’t Ukrainian politicians promising that ethnic Russians would be discriminated against on Ukrainian national TV by being denied their pensions etc?
Even Merkel recently commented that the plan all along was to ignore the Minsk accords and prepare for war with Russia. "

I'm saying the Minsk accords were never fully ignored except by Vlad the Invader who declared them dead and immediately invaded yet more of Ukraine.

As for politicians campaigning over pension reform, in no law anywhere in the known Universe are such political issues considered a legitimate casus belli.

And preparing for war with Russia, or anybody else who might threaten us, is what the United States has done since the end of WWII.
As Vlad the Invader has so richly proved, any nation that fails to prepare for war against Russia is committing national suicide.

winslow: "I have never said I supported the invasion or felt it was justified, but Ukraine chose this route of confrontation.
They had multiple opportunities to negotiate in the months prior to the conflict and showed zero interest and they were rebuked for their stance.
Russia has been complaining bitterly for 20 plus years about NATO broken promises regarding expansion.
They have been warning Ukraine repeatedly over attacks on ethic Russians in the Donbass. "

You don't need to say specifically you support the Russian invasions because your words, even here, amply demonstrate that you do.

Nothing Ukraine did before February, 2022, is remotely an adequate casus belli for Russian invasion.
There was no significant expansion of NATO since 2004 and NATO does not threatened Russia, it merely guarantees it's members' independence.

winslow: " Regarding US military action in Iraq. The casualties of the war itself were over 400,000 and the sanctions probably killed over 1 million.
That’s already much more than will die in this current conflict.
All the intelligence claiming Saddam had WMD was bogus and the intelligence community who supplied this so called evidence knew that.
Saying “no one knew for sure he didn’t have WMD” is not a convincing argument. Br> It’s an argument from silence effectively. "

Total Iraq war deaths are around 200,000 of which around 15% were killed by American forces, the rest mainly by insurgents.
US and other intelligence reports on Saddam's WMDs were consistent over time and confirmed by other agencies.
Officials like US Secretary of State Powell used those reports to make his case at the United Nations.
Nobody ever admitted afterwards that they knew in advance the intelligence was wrong.

And I'll repeat, Saddam himself believed he had WMDs and threatened his neighbors with them.

What you call "argument from ignorance" is simple fact: everybody, including Saddam himself, believed he had WMDs.

Must stop here for now...

You’ve done nothing to refute the analogy. You just misquoted me and then brought up a whole lot of straw man claims that I never made.

There is no precedent for a US population being a majority in a certain region of another country and being attacked by a foreign entity. If there was a similar situation with 10,000 to 14,000 Americans being killed in 8 years I am sure America would act militarily to stop the killings.

I never claimed anything about Russian speakers being a majority in the Ukraine. You are the one lying here. I said ethnic Russians are a majority in one particular region (the Donbass), I never said they are a majority in the whole country.

Russian speakers versus ethnic Russians is a complete red herring. It is a completely different thing.

Ukrainians are at least as corrupt as their Russian counterparts and you seem to be suggesting the Russians deserved to be killed in their thousands and be threatened to have their only source of income (pension) denied to them in their old age.

Again with the conflation of Russian speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. It’s not the same thing. We don’t know how many of them want to be part of Russia. I’d wager quite a few changed their mind about joining Russia after thousands of their compatriots were killed.

The overthrow of Yanukovych which was preceded by the Maidan protests and the killing by snipers of protestors and police alike was not done by Yanukovych and his forces but by forces hostile to him. The snipers took out people from behind in a hotel where a number of foreigners were staying. Yanukovych’s forces were to the front of the protestors. It was a coup and even the subsequent vote to remove Yanukovych didn’t garner enough votes to pass.

Your figures for the Iraq war casualties do not line up with a official numbers. The claims that Saddam was threatening neighbours with weapons he didn’t even have is laughable. And even if true, none of this adds up to proof of him ever possessing these WMD.

I support the ideals of the US and its constitution but not its actions in most of its military campaigns in the last 60 years. The US has a lot of blood on its hands in Vietnam, in Iraq, in Libya and Afghanistan and Russia will not come close to matching this bloodshed in this conflict. Conservatives in the US need to reign in the arms manufacturing companies and the military industrial complex. The also need to dismantle the CIA and reform the FBI.

winslow: "Crimea was gifted to Ukraine by Russia at a time when both nations were part of the USSR.
Nobody at that time expected the breakup of the USSR so at the time it seemed like a meaningless gesture.
In any case they voted to join Russia by around 86% so if you believe in self determination then it’s clear they prefer to be part of Russia than part of Ukraine.
Forcing them to re-join Ukraine against their will doesn’t seem right. "

Russia recognized Crimea as part of Ukraine numerous times.
No legitimate excuse existed for Vlad's invasion, and nobody on Earth recognizes the Russian imposed vote as legitimate.
Like everything else from Vlad the Invader, that vote was a lie wrapped in a fraud inside a hoax.

winslow: " Election rigging happens everywhere and the US knows all about it. "

Election rigging is a crime which can only happen when proper authorities look the other way.
But mere election rigging is not what Russia did in Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk.
Everything Russia did, from the moment of invasion was illegal and illegitimate, including their fraud voting.

winslow: "Having cordial relations with your neighbour especially when your neighbour is a nuclear superpower is just common sense, and the Ukrainians understood that well."

In reality, before 2014, Russians ruled Ukraine through intimidation, corruption and rigged elections.
When Ukrainians overthrew their Russian masters, they decided to become independent and allied with Europe, as is their right.

winslow: " Obama stirred up that conflict just like he sparked the Arab Spring."

Whatever Obama may or may not have said before 2014, after Russians invaded Ukraine, Obama did diddly squat to help Ukrainians defeat Vlad the Invader.
Obama's weakness in 2014 encouraged Vlad to do his thing again in 2022 for Obama's VP, Obiden.

winslow: " So what if the missiles in Europe are not nuclear tipped now?
We don’t know if the long term intention for those missile sites is intended to be purely defensive.
I think it’s naive to think that. "

Naw, it's Pute insanity to think that Europeans, who now spend around 1% of GDP on defense would ever launch a military invasion of Russia, absent some insane provocation from Vlad the Invader, such as unprovoked invasions of Russians smaller neighbors.
And, of course, that will never happen, will it?

winslow: " Stop sending arms to Ukraine now.
Tell them they can’t be in NATO ever.
Force them to make a deal with Russia or the conflict will escalate further.
They can’t win anyway.
All they can do is force more men, most of whom don’t want to fight, to go to their deaths. "

Ukraine is now and will remain forever free of Russian domination.
Vlad the Invader's behavior will force Ukraine to become and remain a heavily armed NATO ally.
If Vlad the Invader responds to repeated battlefield defeats by launching WMDs at Ukraine, the end result will be the destruction of Russia as a nation and of Russians as,a people.
And Vlad the Invader will go down in history as the stupidest man ever to lead a major country, a man whose colossal stupidity was only ever exceeded by that of our own current President, Obama's VP Obiden.

winslow: " You’ve done nothing to refute the analogy.
You just misquoted me and then brought up a whole lot of straw man claims that I never made.
There is no precedent for a US population being a majority in a certain region of another country and being attacked by a foreign entity.
If there was a similar situation with 10,000 to 14,000 Americans being killed in 8 years I am sure America would act militarily to stop the killings. "

No, and from beginning to end, your "analogy" is a total lie, starting with:

Nobody attacked Russian speaking Ukrainians, either before 2014 or after,until Russia invaded Ukraine and some Ukrainian Russian speakers joined the Russian invasion forces.
At that point they, by definition, became traitors committing treason, and as such were dealt with appropriately by military force.
Regardless of whether American expats were a local majority or not, the U.S. State Department would become involved in any mass mistreatment of our citizens.
Among other actions, the U.S. State department would urge Americans living in a hostile country to leave that country as soon as possible.
Think of, for examples, North Korea or Iran
Once U.S. citizens depart a hostile country, then there would be no conceivable casus belli over citizens.
Yes, there may still be other reasons, but protecting our expats would not be one.

That's what makes you so-called "analogy" just a pack of nonsense.

winslow: " I never claimed anything about Russian speakers being a majority in the Ukraine. You are the one lying here. I said ethnic Russians are a majority in one particular region (the Donbass), I never said they are a majority in the whole country. "

You actually never specified where in Ukraine Russian speakers are majorities, so it is important to clarify, they are only majorities in three small regions of three Ukraine provinces, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk.
That implies, even by your own warped logic, Russians have no legitimate reasons for attacking ANYWHERE else in Ukraine.

winslow: " Russian speakers versus ethnic Russians is a complete red herring.
It is a completely different thing. "

Ukrainians who speak Russian may, or may not, consider themselves to be Russians first and Ukrainians only superficially.
However, if they provide aid and comfort to Russians invading Ukraine, then they are, by definition, committing treason and are subject to Ukrainian military actions.

winslow: " Ukrainians are at least as corrupt as their Russian counterparts and you seem to be suggesting the Russians deserved to be killed in their thousands and be threatened to have their only source of income (pension) denied to them in their old age."

Whether Ukrainians are, or are not, politically corrupt is a matter of great concern in a democratic-type government.
Corruption should be addressed vigorously by opposition parties and a nation's law enforcement.
It is never, however considered a legitimate excuse for outside invasion.

I see you love to distort my words.
What I've clearly suggested, multiple times, is that every single Russian who invades Ukraine needs to quickly die, or surrender or get the h*ll back to Russia.
That is indisputable.

As for civilians working for pensions, disputes are common in every country and are always resolved politically, not by some outside invasion force.
Your whole argument here is ludicrous.

winslow: "Again with the conflation of Russian speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians.
It’s not the same thing.
We don’t know how many of them want to be part of Russia.
I’d wager quite a few changed their mind about joining Russia after thousands of their compatriots were killed. "

I would never suggest that every Ukrainian who speaks Russian is a traitor.
But it is a simple fact that every Ukrainian who provided aid and comfort to Russian invaders committed treason and can be dealt with militarily.

My understanding today is that the vast majority of Russian speaking Ukrainians oppose Vlad the Invader's "special military operations".

winslow: " The overthrow of Yanukovych which was preceded by the Maidan protests and the killing by snipers of protestors and police alike was not done by Yanukovych and his forces but by forces hostile to him. "

I don't understand the details -- there were protesters on both sides, and some died on both sides, law enforcement was or was not involved somehow.
What we know for certain is these events gave Vlad the Invader the pretext he wanted for invasion, and so I think it likely Vlad's agents were inciting both sides.

winslow: " Your figures for the Iraq war casualties do not line up with a official numbers.
The claims that Saddam was threatening neighbours with weapons he didn’t even have is laughable.
And even if true, none of this adds up to proof of him ever possessing these WMD. "

You can look those numbers up yourself, there were many different reports covering many different time periods and categories.
I chose one that came from the U.S. military and covered the entire period.
I was especially interested in their breakdown of who caused which deaths. The US military was responsible for about 15% of the 200,000 total deaths.

Of course, that is not to say that only 200,000 people died in Iraq since 2003, only that is the number considered "war deaths".
I'm saying: not everyone who died in Iraq was killed by the U.S. military.
Far more were killed by insurgents.

winslow: " The claims that Saddam was threatening neighbours with weapons he didn’t even have is laughable.
And even if true, none of this adds up to proof of him ever possessing these WMD. "

And yet it happened, numerous reports told us Saddam himself believed he had such weapons he could threaten others with.

And so I'll repeat, nobody has since admitted or credibly claimed that they knew before hand that Saddam had no such weapons.

winslow: " The US has a lot of blood on its hands in Vietnam, in Iraq, in Libya and Afghanistan and Russia will not come close to matching this bloodshed in this conflict. "

For certain, the U.S. has learned a lot of lessons about what works and doesn't work in war.
However, I am satisfied that Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan were fought with the best of intentions and as humanly as possible, under the circumstances.
Libya is another story, Hillary Clinton's Julius Caesar moment when she came, she saw, and then she screwed up everything she touched.

The accuracy of US precision weapons today is vastly greater than those in Vietnam, much less WWII, and so we hold ourselves to much higher standards now.
Russians seem not to, whether in Ukraine or Syria or Chechnya.
And that is yet another reason why they need to be defeated.

winslow: "Conservatives in the US need to reign in the arms manufacturing companies and the military industrial complex.
The also need to dismantle the CIA and reform the FBI. "

Sorry, but you don't "reign in" arms manufacturers, that's another insane idea.
You either order their products or you don't, depending on valid & realistic assessments of what weapons are needed to counter current and future threats.
Quantities and costs per unit are all matters of threat assessment and negotiations.
"Reigning in" has nothing to do with it.

As for the FBI, CIA and others too, I agree something needs to be done, but it's not at all clear what that should be.

If you can’t get the distinction between capability to speak a language and being of a certain ethnicity, I don’t know what to say.
Probably 90% of Ukrainians would have a good grasp of Russian. That is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
Around 17% of them are ethnic Russians, (ie of Russian ancestry) and having a slightly different culture.
17% is a high percentage of the population and as in former Yugoslavian nations you have to look after the needs of both sides or else conflict is inevitable. You don’t seem capable or willing to grasp this.

There were numerous and frequent reports of Ukraine and ethic Russians clashing on many new stations since 2014 but before the latest conflict.
Saying that no ethic Russians were attacked by the Ukrainian forces is a lie.
There were separatist groups certainly, and if you want to simply label them all as traitors, I would say that reflects a naive and ignorant attitude about living in a post empire region made up of divided nationalities.
There may be different reports on how many casualties there were but there were attacks and the Russians were outgunned and were suffering casualties. Again, this is a fact.

When the Austro-Hungarian empire collapsed at the end of WW1 the treaty of Versailles saw Hungary lose up to two thirds of their territory and probably around six million of their citizens. Many Hungarians are still bitter about this even now and they probably have a right to be, even if there were on the wrong side of the war.

Do you think the wars between Serbia and Croatia, or Serbia and Albania had any history prior to the 1990’s?
There was a long history of warfare and massacres prior to and leading up to those conflicts. Croatia had one of the most brutal death camps of WW2 in Jasenovac where hundreds of thousands of Serbs, Jews and Roma were killed.
Do you think in every case there is a simple version of one side being wrong and the other side being right?
Often the media reports assume that the bigger power is bullying the others and trying to aggressively expand.

I’m not sure you understand how pensions work outside the US so I’m going to simplify it for you.
People who did not work a high paid job often get a state pension as opposed to a private pension. If they don’t have substantial savings this pension is all they have.
In Ukraine this is around $100 per month so not much at all, even in spite of the lower cost of living.
Therefore for a Ukrainian politician to threaten to withhold this from ethnic Russians is to threaten them with starvation and a death sentence.

Saying that this can be addressed by opposition parties is a complete joke since Zelenskyy outlawed opposition parties just like he doesn’t permit a free press there anymore or even freedom of religion. They are one of the most corrupt countries in the world and have been for some time.
There is no democracy in Ukraine, just a western appointed stooge who is sending other people’s children to die in a war they cannot win so that the US and NATO can test out their latest weapons without shedding soldiers blood.
That is exactly what one of Ukraine’s generals just plainly stated.
“We are testing weapons systems for NATO and the US and they don’t even have to sacrifice their own soldiers.”

It takes two to tango.
NATO wanted this conflict and has taken numerous actions to escalate it such as blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines and pouring weapons for Ukraine to fight a conflict they could not dream of with their own resources.

At some point there will need to be a negotiated settlement.
I don’t know who is winning in terms of gaining ground and economic resources.
The US has gained in energy sales to Europe and you are charging us through the nose for it, so thanks for that.
The arms companies are enjoying record profits as are the US politicians on both sides who no doubt bought lots of shares in those companies.
Russian has lost a large share of their customers for gas and oil but gained some new customers in Asia.
Their GDP is only down 2%.
Ukraine is taking heavy losses in their infantry.
Russian has taken significant losses but they are bringing out their heavier artillery now.
The sooner both sides are willing to negotiate, the better.

winslow: "Around 17% of them are ethnic Russians, (ie of Russian ancestry) and having a slightly different culture.
17% is a high percentage of the population and as in former Yugoslavian nations you have to look after the needs of both sides or else conflict is inevitable.
You don’t seem capable or willing to grasp this."

What I grasp is that you are trying to draw ridiculous distinctions.
Your 17% number is nonsense.
In the USA, 17% (rough estimate) have English ancestry, 17% have German ancestry, 17% are Scots or Irish, 17% are African Americans 17% are Hispanics, and 15% are who knows what, including native Americans.
All of that is 100% irrelevant.
What matters here is, are they Americans first?
If they are, then they are Americans, period.

In Ukraine, whether they speak Russian, or have some relatives in Russia, or maybe moved from Russia is all, total 100% irrelevant.
What matters is, are they Ukrainian first?
If they are not, if they are more loyal to mother Russia than to Ukraine, if they support the Russian invasion, then nothing else matters, they are, by definition, traitors and can be dealt with as traitors, by police or military actions.

FRiend, this is not complicated rocket-science, it's just simple basics of citizenship.
Your refusal to understand simple things tells me there's something wrong inside your head, and you need to figure that out and fix it.

winslow: "There were numerous and frequent reports of Ukraine and ethic Russians clashing on many new stations since 2014 but before the latest conflict.
Saying that no ethic Russians were attacked by the Ukrainian forces is a lie."

Right, there were no attacks on Russian speakers before 2014 because Russians ruled over Ukraine then and, of course, protected their own.
After 2014's Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainians -- Russian speaking or not -- who supported the Russian invasion became, by definition, guilty of treason to Ukraine and as such were subject to police or military actions.

Again, this is simple, basic stuff anybody should understand, so why don't you?

winslow: "There were separatist groups certainly, and if you want to simply label them all as traitors, I would say that reflects a naive and ignorant attitude about living in a post empire region made up of divided nationalities.
There may be different reports on how many casualties there were but there were attacks and the Russians were outgunned and were suffering casualties.
Again, this is a fact."

What's a fact is that some pro-Russians supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which made them, by definition, traitors to Ukraine and subject to police or military actions.
What's also fact is that Ukraine was unsuccessful in restoring Russian conquered territories after 2014, which can only mean Russia supplied Ukrainian traitors with adequate men & materials to defend the territories it had conquered.

winslow: "When the Austro-Hungarian empire collapsed at the end of WW1 the treaty of Versailles saw Hungary lose up to two thirds of their territory and probably around six million of their citizens.
Many Hungarians are still bitter about this even now and they probably have a right to be, even if there were on the wrong side of the war."

I have never heard a Hungarian complain that they should now, in 2023, have the right to rule over the people who were freed from their rule in 1919.
Perhaps even they realize how ludicrous that sounds?

winslow: "Do you think the wars between Serbia and Croatia, or Serbia and Albania had any history prior to the 1990’s?
There was a long history of warfare and massacres prior to and leading up to those conflicts.
Croatia had one of the most brutal death camps of WW2 in Jasenovac where hundreds of thousands of Serbs, Jews and Roma were killed.
Do you think in every case there is a simple version of one side being wrong and the other side being right?
Often the media reports assume that the bigger power is bullying the others and trying to aggressively expand."

Right, because, more often than not, that's exactly what's happening, for example, when Serbs attempted to conquer land inhabited mainly by Albanians.
As for what's too simple or not too simple, the basic rule is that people have a right to self-determination, but it's not a 100% unlimited right.
Citizens of one country cannot suddenly decide to become their own country, or join another country.
There must first be what our Founding Fathers called:

"...a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."

Nothing remotely resembling the items listed in our own Declaration of Independence existed in Ukraine before Russia's invasion in 2014.
After the 2014 invasion, then pro-Russians who supported the invasion became, by definition, guilty of treason:

"Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort."

winslow: "In Ukraine this is around $100 per month so not much at all, even in spite of the lower cost of living.
Therefore for a Ukrainian politician to threaten to withhold this from ethnic Russians is to threaten them with starvation and a death sentence."

And yet, how insane would a pro-Russian fighting in service of the Russian invasion have to be to think he could still draw his Ukrainian pension?
Seriously, are you a raving lunatic?

winslow: "Saying that this can be addressed by opposition parties is a complete joke since Zelenskyy outlawed opposition parties just like he doesn’t permit a free press there anymore or even freedom of religion.
They are one of the most corrupt countries in the world and have been for some time."

Ukraine is a multi-party constitutionally defined democratically elected republic.
By my count there are nine official parties represented in Ukraine's parliament and many smaller parties.
But in times of military invasion no country allows opposition parties to agitate in favor of the invaders, certainly not the United States.

Ukrainians also hold to several major religions, including Orthodox, Catholic and even some Protestants.
All are free to practice their religions except those advocating for Russian victory.

winslow: "There is no democracy in Ukraine, just a western appointed stooge who is sending other people’s children to die in a war they cannot win so that the US and NATO can test out their latest weapons without shedding soldiers blood."

By my count, Ukraine has held seven elections since 1991, the most recent in 2019, the next one in 2024.
So they are a functioning democracy, by any definition.
As for, will Russia win in Ukraine, my best guess is that so long as Vlad the Invader rules Russia, they will throw everything they have at Ukraine.
When Vlad is gone, the Russians will seek peace and Ukraine will remain independent, part of NATO and the EU.

winslow: "That is exactly what one of Ukraine’s generals just plainly stated.
“We are testing weapons systems for NATO and the US and they don’t even have to sacrifice their own soldiers.”"

Vlad the Invader exposed many weaknesses in the highly touted Russian military when he ordered them to invade Ukraine.
We, of course, were delighted to see the Russian Bear fall on its face.
But there are huge, huge downsides for the West here.
First and foremost, whatever else the Russians are and are not, they are not stupid, and will learn much, just as every war teaches much, about what works and doesn't work.
And Russia will learn all that while fighting a weak enemy like Ukraine, not another major military power.
Just as important to us, by sending our weapons to Ukraine, we are exposing them to capture by Russians and reverse engineering their best features.

The end result, whether Russia wins or loses, will be a much more powerful Russian military.
And it will also wake Europeans from their 75+ year sleep and motivate Europeans to take their own national defenses more seriously.
That will help further reduce American leadership in NATO, whether for good or bad, I can't really say for sure.

winslow: "It takes two to tango.
NATO wanted this conflict and has taken numerous actions to escalate it such as blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines and pouring weapons for Ukraine to fight a conflict they could not dream of with their own resources."

Nonsense, the only one who truly wanted Russia's invasion was Vlad the Invader, nobody else was that insane.
As for Nord Stream, nobody knows for sure who did it, or who ordered them to.
It does demonstrate that dependence on Russian energy is not such a good idea.

Now that Vlad has invaded, Russia must be defeated, period.
My guess is, that won't happen so long as Vlad lives.

winslow: "At some point there will need to be a negotiated settlement.
I don’t know who is winning in terms of gaining ground and economic resources.
The US has gained in energy sales to Europe and you are charging us through the nose for it, so thanks for that."

We are also paying more than double for our energy compared to the President Trump years.
We thank President Biden for that. ;-)

winslow: "The arms companies are enjoying record profits as are the US politicians on both sides who no doubt bought lots of shares in those companies."

Maybe... some might be, but much of the US aid going to Ukraine was diverted from other military projects, and so those arms suppliers will be doing correspondingly worse than they would have done otherwise.
And hopefully Europeans will decide that 1% of GDP for their militaries is just not enough.
That would be a good thing, on balance.

winslow: "The sooner both sides are willing to negotiate, the better."

The sooner Russians withdraw their orcs from Ukraine, the fewer of such beasts will need to die.

“Your 17% number is nonsense.”

It’s the official number.

The US is different. In the US, if someone says they are Irish or Italian, it means they had a very distant relative from hundreds of years ago who migrated and didn’t even keep their own culture but became an American. In Ukraine, ethnic Russians do not share the same culture as their fellow citizens. There was a balance that was maintained to prevent discord and that balance has been disrupted.

Your views on citizenship and loyalty to the state are not universal. People have differing views elsewhere. Once people become US citizens, they have a high incentive to remain citizens due to the high standard of living and personal freedoms afforded to them. They won’t risk that. That situation does not exist in many other countries. Therefore people don’t always feel the state is their friend and worthy of blind loyalty.

As I’ve tried to point out, there is a long history of conflicts breaking out in post empire countries with mixed cultures and nationalities. This is nothing new. The conflict we have is predictable. Ethnic Russians were targeted and attacked both militarily and in terms of state approved discrimination after 2014. Both sides knew a conflict was inevitable. Ukraine and their European allies admitted they had no intention of honouring the Minsk agreement. Instead they prepared for war.

What’s clear is that you can’t even put yourself in the shoes of other people and your outlook is too limited to realise that others don’t think like you.

“I have never heard a Hungarian complain that they should now, in 2023, have the right to rule over the people who were freed from their rule in 1919.”

Yet another over simplification on your part. You need to talk to people from other cultures more and learn more about history than what you claim to know.

“Right, because, more often than not, that’s exactly what’s happening, for example, when Serbs attempted to conquer land inhabited mainly by Albanians.”

Albanians never existed as a state before the 20th century. They expanded into Serbia, increased their population and borders and demanded a potion of Serbia be gifted to them.
Your views on the right of self determination of Albanians and ethnic Russians are contradictory and hypocritical by the way.

winslow: "The US is different.
In the US, if someone says they are Irish or Italian, it means they had a very distant relative from hundreds of years ago who migrated and didn’t even keep their own culture but became an American.
In Ukraine, ethnic Russians do not share the same culture as their fellow citizens."

Those are total lies because the laws of citizenship are basically the same everywhere, namely, you cannot wage war against your own country without being treated as the treasonous traitor you are, with police and military force.
That is inescapable, regardless of whatever mental gymnastics you pirouette and triple lutz to land on, you cannot wage war against you own country, period.

winslow: "There was a balance that was maintained to prevent discord and that balance has been disrupted."

That "balance" was maintained through corruption, intimidation and rigged elections putting Putin's allies in charge of Ukraine.
In 2014 the Ukrainian "Revolution of Dignity" overthrew all that and elected pro-Ukrainian Ukrainians.
So Vlad the Invader immediately invaded and declared Crimea annexed, eventually Donetsk and Luhansk also.
It was a pure power-grab and empire building by Vlad, nothing else.

winslow: "Your views on citizenship and loyalty to the state are not universal.
People have differing views elsewhere.
Once people become US citizens, they have a high incentive to remain citizens due to the high standard of living and personal freedoms afforded to them.
They won’t risk that.
That situation does not exist in many other countries.
Therefore people don’t always feel the state is their friend and worthy of blind loyalty."

All that is totally 100% irrelevant.
What matters in not how citizens feeeeeeeeeeel, what matters is the laws in every country, rich or poor, free or enslaved, the laws in every country prevent citizens from arbitrarily declaring their own independence and then waging war against their own country.
Any suggestion otherwise is pure insanity.
Citizens who don't like their country, who loathe and despise their own governments, who hate their fellow citizens, in nearly every country such people are free to leave and find another country more to their liking.

winslow: "Ethnic Russians were targeted and attacked both militarily and in terms of state approved discrimination after 2014."

There were no police or military actions against Russians in Ukraine before 2014, zero, nada, none, zip, zilch, because Russians ruled over Ukraine.
In 2014 that changed, but still there were no police or military actions against Russians specifically, there was only one, count them, one series of events, the Euromaiden Riots which resulted in deaths on both sides.
And the issue was never Russians versus Ukrainians, but rather government policies towards the EU and Russia.

Vlad the Invader used Ukraine's riots as his excuse to invade Ukraine and now basic citizenship laws required every Ukrainian to defend against foreign invaders.
Those who joined the invaders were treasonous and could be treated as traitors.

That's the whole story, in a nutshell.

winslow: "Ukraine and their European allies admitted they had no intention of honouring the Minsk agreement.
Instead they prepared for war."

The Minsk agreements were nothing more than cease-fire arrangements after Russia's first invasion of Ukraine.
They were never fully implemented, but also never fully ignored until Vlad the Invader declared them abolished in February 2022.

Today, any nation which is not preparing for war against Russia is inviting national suicide.
No sane person could ignore the clear and present danger from Vlad the Invader.

winslow: "What’s clear is that you can’t even put yourself in the shoes of other people and your outlook is too limited to realise that others don’t think like you."

It's irrelevant what they think or feeeeeeeeeel.
What matters is, are they waging war against their own country?
If so, then they can expect a full police and military response.

winslow: "Albanians never existed as a state before the 20th century.
They expanded into Serbia, increased their population and borders and demanded a potion of Serbia be gifted to them.
Your views on the right of self determination of Albanians and ethnic Russians are contradictory and hypocritical by the way."

No, not at all.
The breakup of Yugoslavia turned Serbs into beasts, orcs, like Russians, who murdered and raped their way into power over subject peoples.
No humans could be required to live under such monsters.
In Ukraine the situation was 100% the opposite, Russians there ruled Ukraine before 2014, they were the privileged class and enforced Ukraine's laws favoring Russia.
When that was overturned in 2014, there was no sudden assault on Russians in Ukraine, there were only a series of riots over Ukraine's policies toward Europe, in which people on both sides were killed or injured.

That was the excuse Vlad the Invader used to invade Ukraine, and the rest is just Russian propaganda BS.

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