Posted on 10/29/2020 5:50:05 PM PDT by TheRef
Most Accurate in 2016 - This projection is based on polls and the early vote in the four battleground states that offer hard data and a high level of confidence, not TargetSmart estimates. Each projection is rooted in our interpretation of polling, which was the most accurate in 2016, or in the early vote. We projected both the popular vote and 48 of 50 states correclty in 2016.
Key States:
Pennsylvania - While Democrats are building a large lead in the early vote, their ballot request total (ceiling) does not match expectations while Republicans' requests exceed forecasts. Ballot request totals parallel voter intensity. The GOP's higher intensity should carry them to victory as they catch up in their ballot return percentage and ultimately overwhelm the Democratic early vote on election day.
Florida - Trump looks stronger than expected in Florida because the polls predicted a lot fewer Trump voters opting to vote early than are actually requesting a ballot and showing up early to vote. It does not look like Biden will be able to build the lead he needs to win on election day. We should have a very good idea of who won Florida before election day.
(Excerpt) Read more at freedomwindow.net ...
I think still being missed is the shy dem-for-Trump vote who may not like Trump but is afraid of where the left is headed and the black vote. I think it’s going to be A LOT more.
I say north of 320
300 for Trump,Biden 238
We need the House and the Senate, too.
Low 340 High 356. Everyone else is an idiot. I’m going to enjoy watching Trump slap them around.
I’m predicting Trump takes Minnesota and Michigan. Momentum is all behind Trump today. I’ve got Trump at 326 electoral votes. Also think Pennsylvania and Florida will be bigger wins for Trump that anyone is expecting. Not scientific, but based on intellect guided by experience, as Rush likes to say...
Dunno about their methodology, but these numbers look like something close to a likely outcome. Or it’s in the neighborhood, at least.
Trump 300-plus.
I call Bull Butter on this. The President will go over 300 bigly.........;)
Photo of the pro-Trump hearse following the Biden Bus all over Houston. The
Biden bus is running red lights like crazy trying to get away. It’s all on film.
Dang! Biden looks old. Like a frail 85 year old.
Well, 290 would be under his EC win in 2016 so I wonder which state(s) they think he might lose this time around. Maybe Arizona and Wisconsin? He has to hold the line on FL and PA, or if he loses one of those two and keeps the rest he still wins, or loses one and picks up maybe CO or NV, or if he loses both FL and PA he has to pick up NV and CO at a minimum. Off the top of my head no EC map to look it up right now.
The article includes their state by state analysis.
I dunno. One thing I’d look for is where there’s enough of an older vote peeling away from Trump where it could make a difference.
Won’t be that close.
Trump 320 +/- 10
Newt is saying it will be Trump 310 -Biden 230.
Newt does have a record of sometimes being Boldly enthusiastic, but then again, sometimes he’s shocked people by being boldly right on the money.
That would be FL, and it ain’t happening.
I’m 77...Voted straight Republican ticket. We need the House and Senate, too.
“We need the House and Senate, too.”
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That’ll take a little more luck, I suspect. Unless there are mega-blowouts by Trump in those misc states that will lift the ones who may be having some trouble.
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