Posted on 02/19/2018 10:27:36 AM PST by jmaroneps37
There will be no return of power for the Democrats any time soon. There is no Blue Wave coming. The numbers being ignored by Democrats and their pollsters say this very clearly.
Because the “Blue Wave” hogwash is so widespread brevity demands that only one “Democrat expert’s” foolishness be followed and debunked. Larry Sabato will do.
Almost immediately after the stunning defeat of Hillary Clinton Larry Sabato, one of the left’s trusted “experts”, had the good sense and grace to admit he was totally wrong in his “oh so confident” prediction that Clinton would easily win the election.
In his statement he said “We [pollsters] were wrong – the entire polling industry was wrong… hundreds of surveys... 90% were wrong- we were wrong about rural America…… we’ve got to get it fixed.” That was the Larry Sabato of 2016; but little has changed in the methodology used by Sabato today.
Larry’s “famous” Crystal Ball has the Democrats winning barely enough House seats to retake Congress. This causes visions of Speaker Mumbles Pelosi dancing in the minds of Democrats as they go to sleep each night. Nevertheless, let’s pour some cold water on these somnambulant donkeys and rouse them with the truth.
First an overview: The generic poll which ALWAYS favors Democrats, regardless of the political climate of the day, has totally reversed from its PUSH POLL results of a 20 point lead for Democrats just two months ago to a one point lead for Republicans. Since generic polls have consistent 4 point bias in favor of Democrats, which is recognized by both sides, it’s safe to say Republicans actually now have a five point lead.
But generic polls are merely “beauty contests” that describe what people would like to see. More often than not they are not what will actually get people to go out and vote.
For indicators of a more precise nature we have to look at enthusiasm surveys. Since there are no such surveys available yet other signs of voter excitement for one party or another must be used.
First in this category would be the IBD/TIPP Poll that tells us as a result of the tax cut bill economic optimism is at a 13 year high. This is based on the large number of companies that, as a result of Republican passed tax cuts, have either raised wages, given stock options to employees, given them bonuses or done all three.
Belief in the value of the tax cuts has risen steadily as people have come to recognize the Democrats none of whom , not a single one vote for the tax cuts, lied to them about how the Trump's tax cuts would impact their live.
Just since January 1, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment has gone up 4.2%; its Current Economic Expectation index rose 4.7% and the Consumer Expectation index rose 3.9%. Increases of this kind have not been seen in ten years. This is very important.
Another important factor: Bill Clinton will be locked in a closet somewhere as things get worse for him and his wife.
The Democrats have no ideas; no money and third tier candidates.
More than this, because Democrats have such a thin “bench” (because they got blown out in 2010 and again in 2014), they have a core of wild unsophisticated leftists who believe the media hype about a Blue Wave and so have jammed Democrat primary ballots with 4, 6 and even more candidates that will destroy each other before they even get to face well-funded Republican incumbents.
The practical effect of these changes in public sentiment toward Republicans and away from Democrats has had a devastating effect on Mister Sabato’s “Toss-up” election list. It makes some questionable but others look silly.
It is important to keep in mind that Sabato’s prediction of a Democrat takeover of the House is very much akin to drawing to complete an inside straight.
He allowed a margin of error of just four races. His theory rests on Democrats holding all of their current seats – disregarding the huge advantage Republicans have at the state level – and Democrats taking twenty five Republican seats.
The following races are included in his mostly Republican “Toss-up” list and they are easily debunked. Remember that to be right Sabato can only miss four or less of these toss ups. For Sabato’s theory to collapse this analysis has to be right on only four races.
These are the races he calls “toss-ups” that don’t stand up in the light of scrutiny.
California 48th CD incumbent Dana Rohrabacher
While Hillary Clinton was scorching her way through California, Dana Rohrabacher was winning big and the June primary system California uses will cripple Democrat challengers as the economy gets stronger and stronger even in California.
No Clinton on the ballot will hurt Democrats as well. Trump voters turned out for Trump’s ideas not as part of a cult of personality that has already been tarnished with the Democrats muzzling Bill Clinton. Trump voters will came out then and will do so again as there is no erosion in his base. Republican hold.
California 25th CD Republican incumbent Steve Knight
Knight has already beaten his likely Democrat challenger by 6 points which is big for a Republican in California. And as with the 48th CD, the June primary system California uses will cripple Democrat challengers as the economy gets stronger and stronger even in California. No Clinton on the ballot will hurt Democrats as well. Republican hold.
Florida 26th CD Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo
Curbelo has already beaten the likely Democrat challenger but Florida’s late August primary system will cripple the eventual Democrat candidate; and again as the economy gets stronger and stronger things will get tougher and tougher for Democrats. Republican hold.
Minnesota 8th CD Democrat incumbent Rick Nolan
Nolen won by 1 point in a district that was won by President Trump by 15 points and this district has recorded the third biggest shift toward Republicans in the nation. Republican pick up.
New York 19th CD Republican incumbent John Faso
In 2016 Faso beat the strongest Democrat candidate with the most money and most big name endorsements by 9 points. He even outpaced Trump who won the district by 7 points. Faso avoids Democrat attacks by voting no on Tax cuts. Republican hold.
New York 22nd CD Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney
Tenney won by 5 points in a three-way race that included a third- party candidate who drew 15 points. If Tenney merely splits this group, she wins big. Absent this candidate and given the benefits to her district from the Tax cuts makes this a Republican hold.
Michigan 11th CD Republican incumbent Dave Trott
Trott is not running for reelection.
But, Trott won his reelection by 53/40 in a district won by Trump by 4 points which says Blue Collar Democrats voted for him and took a chance on Trump. The tax cuts were virtually tailored to the state of Michigan. Whomever the Republicans run will have an advantage. Republican hold.
Virginia 10th Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock
Comstock won reelection by 6 points while Hillary Clinton was winning the district by 10 points, she has a huge war chest and no clear Democrat challenger and of course the economy is growing and growing. Republican hold.
Final point regarding how thin the chances of a Democrat take over of the House are: Ballotpedia, a left leaning website, is tracking only 23 races. To take the House back the Democrats would have to win all 23 races plus 2 additional seats.
If I am right about just half of these assessments Larry’s prediction of a Democrat House in January 2019 is over; but I’m not right on half of them I’m right on all of them.
Will Republicans lose seats- maybe but not enough to change things even if they do.
Blue Wave?
Notice how nobody is talking anymore about the possibility of Democrats taking the Senate??? With the current split of 51-49, theoretically Dems should be thinking how they will pick up a net of 2 seats. But nobody talks about that anymore.
They already had a "blue wave" in 2012. If anything they stand to lose 10 seats in the Senate at this point, theoretically wiping out that "blue wave".
We need to turn out like we did in 2016!
Plus President Trump spent last year cutting off a lot of funds that go straight to democrats. This will continue all this year, plus the Russia scandal will be replaced by the democrat coup scandal.
This has proven very economical and effective, if slightly underhanded. Suppress the vote of the Republican base, exploit their morality by dirtying up the candidate, then even a lightweight lib can win.
A lot will depend on turnout—on voter enthusiasm. Count on the media to try to manufacture some outrage that will get Democrats to the polls. Does Mueller plan to issue his report in October in order for the Democrats to fire up their base by making it an “impeach Trump” referendum?
The media tried all of this in 2016 . It didn’t work then and things will be much much better this time. No Blue Wave.
Larry Sabato is nothing more than a Democrat political hack, masquerading as a college professor. Fox News gives the DNC a lot of free publicity by having him on so often.
It is the economy stupid...
But house races are a little harder to predict..
the only “blue wave” I see is the blue toilet cleaning capsule I use when flushing the toilet...
It’s still eight months off, and the only constant in politics is change, but I’d have to agree that this is a little early in the game for the media to be posting “Surrender, Dorthy!” stories. Bernie’s backers have seen their candidate leave the party and Hillary still camped out like a vulture on a telephone wire. And “Russia, Russia, Russia” is making her media look more foolish by the day. If they’re going to turn the old army of Bernie populists back into a force to be reckoned with, they’re going to have to lose Hillary and shut her chorus line of media parrots up by mid-summer or it will be too late.
In 2018, Dems are defending more Senate seats than Republicans are. The odds are that Repubs will pick up a seat or two.
President Trump should campaign throughout the country as though his presidency depends on it, because it does. If the Democrats win the House, they will move to impeach him. They will reverse everything he has done and will go after your guns, starting with “assault rifles,” but not ending there, of course. If you value freedom, you must vote this year.
Thanks jmaroneps37.
Sabato needs to join the “Five-percenter’s Club,” along with Karl Rove and Dick Morris.
Wrong 95 percent of the time....
Unfortunately, about 90 percent of college professors are Democrat political hacks, masquerading as college professors.
It’s daunting, being in the right 10 percent. And it doesn’t look like many are coming up through the ranks to replace us as we retire or die off.
Who can blame them, when either cowardly or communistic administrators glorify the left and try to silence those of us on the right? The U.S. system of higher education really needs to die a quick death so something worthwhile can arise from the ashes.
Notice no seats in MA — all are Dems, of course — are up for grabs. The Democratic congressional congregation in MA is so set and so corrupt that nothing will dislodge them without indictments. My congresscritter is so corrupt he and his family are known generally as “The XXXXX Crime family.”
Was it Mencken or Barnum who said something like, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the American people”.
Never, ever assume that you are going to win or you will end up like Georgia in the recent NC. Roll Tide.
For decades, the 'progressives' enjoyed a strategy that was bulletproof : push polls, the human weakness of wanting always to be among the "winners" no matter what the subject.
Florence King, decades ago observed that no one ever succeeded in politics by "overestimating"" the intelligence of the average American voter: unengaged and ignorant.
I don't recall the subject of "push polls" being discussed, ever, during the 2016 campaign.
The beast had it in the bag; 95 to 98% certain to win.
Seriously?
It was obvious to me at the beginning of the 2016 campaign, bullshit was the order of the day and I adopted my "bullshit," I don't do 'polls' attitude to the very end.
Have we seen the end of 'push polls'? Whistling past the graveyard by the totally ignorant?
I hope not
I sure hope not!
The few times I have actually been politically polled I lied through my teeth!
: )
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