From numbers above, Dems are currently at 61% of their total 2012 vote.
GOP at 60% of their 2012 vote.
Yes, assuming all Dems vote Clinton etc.
There are likely about 420,000 votes yet to be cast Tues. 45K is 11% of those. GOP on election day has to win by 11% to win this state.
Some more granularity. Let’s give trump 55/45 of non affiliated.
That cuts the lead of 45600 down to 28,800.
This is 7% of the votes yet to be cast. GOP would need to win by 7% on Tues to win the state, if the EVs/Absentees among unaffiliated went 55/45 Trump.