[Owen]

Some more granularity. Let’s give trump 55/45 of non affiliated.

That cuts the lead of 45600 down to 28,800.

This is 7% of the votes yet to be cast. GOP would need to win by 7% on Tues to win the state, if the EVs/Absentees among unaffiliated went 55/45 Trump.

[Owen]

And even more granularity. Let’s give Trump a crossover advantage of 3% (more dems vote for him than never trump types vote hillary). That’s 3% of the total D/R EV/Absentees or about 18000 votes.

That would bring the lead down to about 11000.

11000 is only 2.6% of the probable 420,000 votes yet remaining. Not that big a lead to make up.

[FreeReign]

This is 7% of the votes yet to be cast. GOP would need to win by 7% on Tues to win the state, if the EVs/Absentees among unaffiliated went 55/45 Trump.

Latest poll from CNN says that Trump has a double digit lead with election day voters.