Posted on 10/27/2016 8:51:46 AM PDT by GilGil
Q: The candidates in the General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Hillary Clinton and the Libertarian Gary Johnson or someone else. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? (ROTATE) BY RACE Column % White African-American Hispanic Other Donald Trump 45% 29% 30% 26% Hillary Clinton 42% 61% 58% 51% Gary Johnson 5% 3% 7% 8% Someone else 1% 1% 0% 0% Undecided 7% 6% 5% 15%
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
They better get out the whips and ropes to keep them on the plantation.
Current PA law is that you have to be a resident of that particular voting district in order to be a poll watcher at that polling station.
Trump has filed a Federal lawsuit seeking an injunction.
If he wins he will be able to flood Philly with lawyers and poll watchers to thwart the Dems’ plans.
Based on a similar case in Connecticut he should win (though I expect a corrupt FedJudge may attempt to stall past the election).
I don’t see that poll as a win for Trump. Look at both the black and Hispanic vote.
Trump fights. :)
There's an eerie stillness going on as the establishment is watching the sea strangely pull back from the shore of the official narratives. Expect a tsunami on November 8th.
This is GOP polling group, so I don’t know how accurate/biased they are for us.
Does that mean the Philly turnout will be 129%?
29% black vote going for Trump is a win if it is accurate or if it is anything close to it.
The number of registered Dems in NYS is overwhelming. If half of them stay in bed, the Dem still win.
29% destroys the Dem plantation.
Let’s see what happens. Obama is calling everyone to go out and vote and how Trump would mean disaster for the country in the ads for Hillary on TV and youtube right now. That might change things, or might not, we will see.
IIRC, Obama won with the Latino vote.
The internals of this poll, if anywhere near accurate spell DOOM for Hillary in PA.. in spite of the fact it concludes she has a lead.... By the numbers....
She’s losing Erie and Harrisburg... both of went OBama in 12... Erie gave Obame 20k, she’s only up 2% in Pitt, an area OBama in 12 won by something like 18%... Pitt gave Obama 90,000 votes.. Hillary if these numbers are accurate is down about 100k votes in W PA from Obamas numbers in 12... (he won by about 300k total)
Hillary basically has to rely almost entirely on Philly region to win PA.. She has no help of consequence coming from W PA... if the polling numbers are accurate... she’ll only net about 10k extra votes in WPA... compared to Obamas 120k there.
Trump on the other hand, should EASILY outperform Bush, McCain and Romney’s showings of ~2.7M votes each... I fully expect Trump to put 3M+ in the box on election day.. given just the registration R’s have gained over 100k since 12, and D’s have lost over 100k.. its a fair assumption that just on that alone Trump will likely get 100k more votes than any R in the last 3 cycles... putting his base at 2.8M... His enthusiasm and crossover appeal will get him several hundred thousand more.. I just see no way He puts less than 3M+ votes in the box...
By contrast Hillary has to perform as well as O in 12 or Kerry in 04 to get close to 3M... while at the same time obviously under performing them both in W PA... sections of the state that have given D’s 100K+ of their win totals in the last elections...
TO hit 3M votes, Hillary has to come out of Philly area even higher than Obama... and I just don’t see any way on gods green earth that’s happening.... Trump is going to outperform Bush 2, McCain and Romney, EVERYWHERE... and Hillary has to somehow find 100k+ or more votes just in the Philly region alone than Obama got in 12.... to stay competitive... and i just don’t see it happening.... basically she needs to nearly DOUBLE the performance Obama had in 12 out of the philly region to stay on par with a 3M vote total... assuming this poll is remotely accurate in its regional result break down, and I believe it is.
Add in the little tidbit that the post points out 29% support among blacks... (I don’t think Trump will actually get that much on election day) because if he gets that kind of support out of black voters in PA... Hillary just gets crushed... Her vote totals in Philly will be down huge, and she’s got no chance of even hitting the 2.7ish votes any nameless dog republican has shown they can put in the box for an R.
Less than 2 weeks to go, but I just don’t see how Hillary can win PA.. even with the typical philly fraud.
Where is the demographic breakdown for this poll? Could be they only polled like 13 black people and 3 of them like Trump, but that wouldn’t be a statistically significant sample.
I know everyone here seems worried about Philly fraud stealing PA... and I am here to tell you, if Trump performs like it appears he will, Philly fraud can’t take it.
Hillary has ZERO support outside the Philly region... O won the state with roughly a 300k margin in 12... but nearly a full 1/2 of that came from OUTSIDE Philly.
Pitt gave him 90k, Erie gave him 20k, Harrisburg gave him another 10K... Based on this poll Hillary will be lucky if she sees a total net total of 10k votes go her way outside of the Philly region.
Now, if Trump performs like I expect him to, which is he should put 3M+ in the box, which is about at Obama’s 12 numbers, that means Hillary has to get 120k more votes MINIMAL out of the Philly region than Obama did in 12.. and she doesn’t have remotely the support even there, and won’t get the turnout to likely even match O’s 2012 numbers in Philly region, let alone top them by 120k... and yes, that’s even with fraud folks.
I just don’t see any way Hillary wins PA... she is going to have to come out of Philly region with far far more votes than O could put in the box there with fraud in 12.. perhaps not as high as he did there in 08, but she’s going to have to see a performance far above O in 12 in the Philly region to hold the state from Trump.. and I just don’t see any way that’s happening
Trump only leads 45-42 among whites? If that is true, then the black vote for Trump won’t matter - he’ll lose.
I’m VERY skeptical about that 45-42 figure - it just doesn’t seem right at all.
I would hope at least 50% of Blacks would support a better economy, better schools, lower taxes, jobs etc.
Liberals have done zip zero nada for Blacks, except keep them down.
_________
Doubt it!
Not if 29% of them vote for Trump!
How does this compare to 2012?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.