Posted on 10/25/2016 9:36:33 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There's something funny about all the focus on whether Donald Trump will concede the election results gracefully. There's something odd about all the speculation on whether Trump will drag Congressional Republican candidates down with him. And there's something off about people wondering just how large Hillary Clinton's landslide victory will be.
Yes, most of the polls say Trump is behind nationally and in the key battleground states. Yes, those news event betting sites are all setting odds at about 80 percent for a Clinton victory. And polls and odds aside, you could argue a politically incorrect outsider like Trump never really had a chance anyway. But the thing is, he hasn't lost yet.
This column is not meant to make some kind of case for Trump's chances. But it's a simple statement of fact that in almost every election, there is some variety in poll results. This one is no different as the L.A. Times/USC poll calls it a tie, and Rasmussen Reports and the historically most accurate Investors Business Daily Poll both say it's just a one point race. Two other polls, Reuters/Ipsos and Economist/YouGov have it as a four-point lead for Clinton. This is hardly landslide or even comfortably certain territory. But maybe it's not the actual, "who are you voting for?" polls we should be looking at now.
First off, people often do vote or tip off their vote with their feet. And Trump rallies are still jam-packed, compared not only to Clinton's rallies, but the usual attendance we see at political rallies even this close to Election Day. It's that kind of consistent enthusiastic turnout that has Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth convinced that Trump will win the election based on a model he constructed that's mapped out every election result since 1912 correctly, (except for 1960).
Most of the pundits, including University of Virginia elections expert Larry Sabato, still believe turnout for Clinton will still be strong enough for her to win. But in every election in the past where negative campaigning has been dominant, turnout is depressed. And when was the last time a presidential election was as nasty and negative as this one?
But what about that elephant in the Trump Tower penthouse? His personality is a problem. Most of the electorate simply does not see him as a good or even decent person. In any other election year, where the personal likability of the candidate is probably the most important factor, the public's lack of esteem for Trump would be lethal.
Yet this isn't any other election year. Trump is running against a candidate with an almost equally poor likability factor. So by definition, millions of us will be voting for someone we don't personally like or even greatly respect. And in this age of terror and Wikileaks, something could happen to make us switch our vote to the other candidate that we also don't like or respect all that much. Pollsters and other experts alike could be assuming that since most voters do not personally like Trump or Clinton, they won't vote for one or the other. Political choices are ultimately emotional choices for 99 percent of us, and polls can't always gauge emotions very well.
But let's look at some other polls for a second, because there is absolutely no diversity when it comes to what the polls are telling us about the direction of the country. Every major poll taken over the past two years has shown a massive majority of the respondents believe the country is going in the wrong direction.
The average of the last nine of those polls has the "wrong direction" folks with more than a 35 percentage point majority. That's well into the territory where historically the incumbent party in the White House is toast. And Clinton has done almost nothing to try to recast herself as a change agent. This is one key wildcard the election pollsters may not really be able to adjust for when it comes to how they measure Trump's support.
And that wildcard comes mostly from economic uncertainty and pain. No one thinks things are as bad as they were during the height of the 2008-09 Great Recession. But wages are still depressed, the GDP is barely growing, and a newly-leaked email shows even Democratic National Committee acting Chair Donna Brazile telling Clinton campaign Chair John Podesta that the economy is simply not good.
Economic disenchantment has been evident throughout this campaign, especially at the Trump and Bernie Sanders rallies. Perhaps the reason Clinton doesn't draw the big crowds despite a lead in the polls is that even her supporters may not be up for hearing happy talk about the Obama economy and how she'll keep it going. Economic despair, even among Clinton fans, has to be considered a possible drag on turnout for her and a possible lightning bolt for Trump.
The bottom line is that the usual election rules are in the trash in 2016; that's been apparent ever since Trump first surged in the early GOP primary polls. The question is why so many experts are so certain that things are back to normal enough to stop worrying about a Trump win.
This just begs the question, how did this horrible, unelectable, scraping the bottom of the personal likeability scale candidate manage to wipe the floor with 16 other pubbie candidates, including several favored minorities and one just waiting to be anointed? This writer acts like the primaries never happened.
The 1960 election was stolen. This is a fact disputed by only the rarest Kennedy sycophant.
LBJ and the Chicago Democratic machine literally stuffed ballot boxes, even whole rooms of ballots, at will. Organized crime expected to be rewarded as a result of their participation (which included no federal action against their leaders).
JFK didn’t deliver on his part of the bargain—Bobby kidnapped Carlos Marcello, dumped him in Central America...Carlos made it back...issued the order “get that stone out of my shoe”...oh well...byebye JFK.
I don’t know how to get the word out but we have to address every single instance of vote-switching, close those machines down IMMEDIATELY and have them not just calibrated but investigated.
It’s not an accident when Trump votes switch to Clinton. Their plan is to overwhelm us. Only a few will notice and report, the rest will go to Clinton.
Every single instance needs to be treated as the only instance, shut down and investigated.
Hoping all of this media BS badly suppresses her voter turnout.
Thankfully I’m in Florida. We still have paper ballots.
Blacks will not turn out for Clinton like they did for Obama.
Many Bernie supporters will not support Clinton, especially with the new revelations of thuggery committed by Clinton/DNC and blamed on Bernie supporters.
People want change. Clinton is not the change candidate. Trump is.
Trump supporters are motivated.
The Brownshirt tactics of the Clinton/DNC machine are causing Trump supporters to keep quiet.
Trump will win.
I don’t watch news but my sister says they’re attributing the long line in Florida to Hillary voters. Hispanic registration up 100%
I have to take exception with his point about her likability . My parents encounter this when they travel the Western states in the summer. Everyone hates Hillary. But they are traveling in their RV into “fly over” country. Elsewhere, and I find it astonishing, Hillary is loved. It is unfathomable to me that anyone can like her, but she is well liked. I guess the question is how independent voters regard her.
And for some wild reason, Republicans also think they need be “gentlemen”. That is why Nixon didn’t contest. They still insist to act like gentlemen, but these days that’s like trying to be a gentleman in a gladiator arena. Just gets you killed.
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