Posted on 10/23/2016 5:33:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Submitted by Salil Mehta via Statistical Ideas blog,
Sea of faulty polls
In this article we cover the theoretical bases for two interconnected ideas that we've discussed recently:
(a) that the empirical polling results are not as dire as current landslide mainstream media projections make it out to be, and
(b) many polls are oscillating about impossibly low probabilities right now for Donald Trump.
This year is genuinely unique in merging several fundamental aspects, with a largely disenfranchised voting base across the country (i.e., record undecideds), and pollsters unable or unwilling to properly assess the true probability for Mr. Trump (and their incoherent polls evidence this). This is not a matter of apologizing for the ground-level odds currently shown by mainstream media, or that the average Hillary Clinton lead is merely unsustainably high. This loses the forest through the trees, as we theoretically prove here.
Start by studying a sample of the general election polls below, taken in just the last couple days...
(Excerpt) Read more at statisticalideas.blogspot.com ...
Check. Already done. Don’t believe Hillary is winning at all. Its just the Ministry Of Truth telling the usual.
In a normal year the pollsters might be concerned about their reputations but this year they know things will never be the same again.
The fault, dear 2ndDivisionVet, is not in our stars,
But in ourselves, that we are underlings.
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