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Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll( D+34 seriously and she is up only 5%)
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite | 10/19/2016 | Self

Posted on 10/19/2016 1:20:14 PM PDT by GilGil

Party ID (R 24%, D 58%, I 19%) It's a D+34% sample-- Totally pure fantasy.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2016; clinton; election; polls; trump
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To: GilGil

Is this a Bruce Merrill poll? He’s a big time liberal and this smells like pure BS!


21 posted on 10/19/2016 1:33:35 PM PDT by hsmomx3 (Love my Steelers!!)
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To: GilGil

I think the corrupt MSM is running out of R’s and I’s who are even willing to talk to them.

I was called a week ago and asked to take a poll. I just hung up.


22 posted on 10/19/2016 1:34:01 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: GilGil

D+40000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Make it happen....I need a hearty chuckle!


23 posted on 10/19/2016 1:35:13 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: conservativepoet

But yet everyone on Fox has called the election for Hillary, and even has Texas as a toss up state. There is a big disconnect somewhere. Even Limbaugh was giving Trump’s obituary today on the radio. Are there internal polls we can’t see? Are they exit polling early voters, or are they just making things up?


24 posted on 10/19/2016 1:36:10 PM PDT by longfellowsmuse (last of the living nomads)
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To: GilGil
OK! So they are polling 34% more dems than republicans and Hillary can only squeeze out a 5% lead. Seriously ! This is absurd. If they were to poll more like D+8 this would be a wipe out for Pickles.

Actually, they polled 58 Dems for every 24 Republicans. There are two numbers at play. The number of Democrats polled was 242% of the number of Republicans polled (58/24 = 2.42). Or, you could say the number of Democrats polled was 142% higher than the number of Republicans polled. (58-24=32. 32/24 = 1.42).

25 posted on 10/19/2016 1:38:10 PM PDT by IYAS9YAS (An' Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool - you bet that Tommy sees! - Kipling)
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To: GilGil

Here’s the internals:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3145228/Arizona-Republic-Morrison-Cronkite-News-October.pdf

Note table A5, which is the UNWEIGHTED breakdown.

Then note table A6, which confirms that UNWEIGHTED breakdown quite precisely.

Finally, look at table A7, which also claims to be UNWEIGHTED. The party affiliations shift a straight-up 13% from D to I, and an additional 1% to R.

This implies that a net full quarter of Democrats think of themselves as indies... but a net negative number of Republicans do.

Someone’s got some splainin to do.


26 posted on 10/19/2016 1:39:21 PM PDT by thoughtomator (This election is a referendum on the Rule of Law)
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To: longfellowsmuse

Contrary to what the OP said, this is a +5% Republican poll, and Trump is losing in it. If Trump is losing Arizona, it is over.


27 posted on 10/19/2016 1:40:19 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: thoughtomator

Someone’s got some splainin to do.

___________

You really have to laugh. this is getting childish like dealing with 5 year olds.


28 posted on 10/19/2016 1:40:57 PM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorables Unum)
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To: MrShoop

Contrary to what the OP said, this is a +5% Republican poll, and Trump is losing in it. If Trump is losing Arizona, it is over.

_________

Trump is not losing Arizona. Give it a rest.


29 posted on 10/19/2016 1:41:57 PM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorables Unum)
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To: GilGil

Is this the one FOX was bragging about all day?

Pray America wakes


30 posted on 10/19/2016 1:43:58 PM PDT by bray (Because you would be in jail)
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To: GilGil

I didn’t say he was losing Arizona, I said he was losing in this poll which has a +5% Republican weighting.


31 posted on 10/19/2016 1:44:13 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: longfellowsmuse

Rush is “on and off” with his treatment of Trump.

Internal polls from Trump campaign are much better than the jokes seen from MSM.

People are getting paid by MSM to depress Trump turnout, but that won’t happen.


32 posted on 10/19/2016 1:46:33 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: MrShoop

I just looked at the internals...where in the world do you see R+5?


33 posted on 10/19/2016 1:51:08 PM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: Mjreagan

They say in the weighting section that they weight by party registration, and they say in the party section that the registration data for AZ is 35% R, 30% D.


34 posted on 10/19/2016 1:56:49 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: GilGil

Trump is losing Arizona and Elvis is giving a concert tommorrow also


35 posted on 10/19/2016 1:58:36 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: KavMan

They’re all rigged to favor Democrats.


36 posted on 10/19/2016 2:06:32 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: longfellowsmuse
Limbaugh would love a Clinton victory.

They are wishful thinking, but we have the final word.

37 posted on 10/19/2016 2:08:05 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Right Ahead

Wasn’t Walter Cronkite a communist who bragged about it after he retired?


38 posted on 10/19/2016 2:08:36 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: MrShoop
It's a D+34% sample

What are you talking about, the Democrats are way over polled.

It isn't plus %5 Rep.

39 posted on 10/19/2016 2:11:07 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: MrShoop

Gotcha, so they reweighted the poll and gave more weight to the low number of Republicans polled. This is basically ‘unskewing’ the data and using too small a sample of Republicans to accurately predict what the state turnout would be.

It’s not the ridiculous over sampling as initially thought but still a tremendous amount of assumptions made, which lead to the MOE which is about her ‘lead’. Too close in AZ, but I’m not going to lose sleep over this poll.


40 posted on 10/19/2016 2:11:40 PM PDT by Mjreagan
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