Posted on 07/13/2016 9:04:32 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
It’s easy to be critical of pollsters. I have been rather critical of them myself. Nevertheless, good and worthy criticism must be backed up with hard facts. Those of us who have been closely engaged in this current campaign share a sense that what we see and hear in our everyday life is not being reflected in poll results. “They just don’t square up with what I’m seeing” is a typical thought we share.
The answer to the difference between what we see and what we read from pollsters can be laid squarely at the feet of the “I’m so conservative I’d rather see Hillary Clinton in the White House than Donald Trump” crowd. These people are foolishly playing with the life of our country and placing us in physical, financial and civil danger for decades to come merely to satisfy their own egos.
The most recent Rasmussen Report survey results make this point. While Trump holds a thin 2 point edge which places Clinton in a statistical tie, he is doing so with just 73% of Republicans backing him. This is 16.25% less than the average Republican support for Republican candidates over the last four elections.
While it is true Clinton is underperforming by getting 79% of Democrats, her support is just 10.25% off the average Democrat support for the Democrat candidate in the last four elections.
Trump’s 73% of Republicans is 16.25% less than the four election average 89.25. So, if these averages hold, Clinton’s ceiling is just 10.25% additional support should the average number of Democrats “come home;” but Trump’s growing ceiling under the same conditions in 16.25%.
Using the 2012 election numbers, Trump is a very good position provided those holdouts come to his side. The math is not complicated. In 2012, 29% of those...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
We all read these sampling objections to the polls in 2012. All seemed to oversample Dems, and Dem groups. In the end, however, the polls proved accurate, to the dismay of Karl Rove and others.
I don’t hold out much hope for the #NeverTrump’ers. They seem perfectly happy to cut off their noses to spite their face. I guess they want to teach us a lesson - or something.
If a Pollster asks me, I’ll say, “Hell yeah, I’m voting for Hillary.”
(the eyes have it...deranged!)The left gave us a community organizer for 8 years.....are they now going to dump an insane politician on us just because 1) she is a woman and 2) she will not stop the plundering of our Treasury or her pay to play for the CGI.
Actually, Romney was leading in the polls.
The Uniparty had Mister Romneycare throw the election for the greater good of their NWO.
And then you have things like the poll worker in Cincinnati who openly bragged that she voted for Obozo six times in 2012. In Lake County, IN, not only do dead people vote, they vote multiple times. That crap has got to stop and people need to start going to jail.
If the R party is encouraging polls to sway in Hillary’s favor that is the smarter thing to do. The #1 way to get people to take action is to create a sense of urgency that demands people get up and do something about it. If Trump ever dominates the polls between now and November, more people will just stay home and not vote at all. As long as Hillary keeps leading the polls, more people will make an effort to vote for Trump.
“If a Pollster asks me, I’ll say, “Hell yeah, I’m voting for Hillary.””
Uh, huh. You’re clearly one o’ them thar big bad Pubs “enabling pollsters to lie and say Clinton is leading Trump”. Shame on you!
[BTW, I do everything in my power to prevent pollsters and all other assorted riff-raff from reaching me by phone; that way I don’t have to lie.]
sessions on his way to Indy now, gingrich is there. Trump met with Pence and met with christie monday. Trump had said 5 candidates and 2 unknowns......... sessions...christie...flynn...gingrich...pence and ???...and ????
Gun ownership is waaaay down, too. Ask the libs, “more & more guns in fewer & fewer hands”.
Yes, fewer people are answering yes to a stranger on the phone asking, “Do you own any guns?”
I always lie to pollsters and surveys.
Yeah, I'll never forget the way Romney ran off and hid after beating Obama soundly in the first debate. Clearly, he got his marching orders from somebody.
It was sad that he didn’t bother to tell Ann Romney until after they lost.
Google Rove and voter fraud. Someone had a “plane accident” before he was to testify against Rove over ‘04.
“If a Pollster asks me, I’ll say, “Hell yeah, I’m voting for Hillary.” “
Why would you do that? Seems to me, you’d tell them you’re voting for Trump so the poll will be more accurate. How is the public served by skewed polls?
I don’t like polls, I want people to lose faith in them, so they go away and people just go and vote.
“I don’t like polls, I want people to lose faith in them, so they go away and people just go and vote.”
Fair enough.
All polls are nonsense are just used for political purposes.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.