No maybes about it. The attack on Pearl Harbor marked the end of Imperial Japan. The outcome was never really in question.
I don't agree that Japan could have put Pearl Harbor out of action for an extended period of time with a second and third wave. You can destroy the facilities, but the harbor itself would still be there and I have no doubt that we could have got the port back into operation quickly. The arsenal of democracy would be mobilized to make it happen.
The Battle Of Midway was a game changer for both sides. BUT...IF Japan would have destroyed the bases at Hawaii and taken out the carriers, Midway would have fallen shortly after. NEVER allowing the trap to be set that sent 4 of Japans carriers to the bottom, so early in the war. The whole dynamic of the war would have changed.
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, what a fine world we would have. The US would still have defeated the Japanese Navy, albeit it would take a little longer. Our submarine force got better and better and did major damage by themselves to both combatant and merchant ships. Japan was overextended in China, the Philippines, and in the Pacific.
During the three and one half years of WWII, the US produced 10 battleships, 27 aircraft carriers, 110 escort carriers, 211 submarines, 907 Cruisers/Destroyers/Escorts, 82,000 landing craft, 124,000 ships of all types, and 310,000 aircraft. And this was done from virtually a standing start. Anyone who thinks that razing Pearl Harbor would have put it out for quite a while underestimates what happens when the US mobilizes its economy and industry along with 12 million under arms.
PS, I still have a ration book for me as a child during WWII.
You sir have no idea about logistics. As much as Japan was over extended (I agree with you on), Pearl was 2600 miles away from San Diego. IF the carriers were taken out, The US Navy would have sucked up tight and left Pearl for a later date. Kind of hard to mobilize The arsenal of democracy if the majority of your capital ships are underwater (and I don't mean subs).
The Essex was the first Carrier to enter in WWII. That wasn't until July of '43.
It took 3 months to return the Pennsylvania, Maryland and Tennessee. The Nevada didn't return to duty until late '42. The California didn't return until '44. Wipe out the drydock facilities, and that takes a lot longer. Remove convoys of supplies and it takes even longer. Pearl would have been virtually on her own until a fleet back home could have been put together to allow safe passage for supply ships. In the meantime, Japan would have kept moving.
Our submarine force got better and better
Oh golly gee willikers, really???
But by when???
1943?
Again, Without the capital ships, everything else is just harassment. Without capital ships, convoys don't safely sail. Without convoy ships, Pearl doesn't get rebuilt. Without Pearl being rebuilt ships sunk in harbor stay there. Without Pearl active and viable, we can't project any force in the Pacific. Can't project in the Pacific and Japan keeps moving (and over extending) but still reinforcing.
The Yorktown was the first of the Essex class carriers to enter service, being built during the war. She was laid down, Dec. 1, 1941 and didn't enter service until July 6, 1943. The Intrepid came 3 months later. The Hornet 4 months after that. That means all this armament you talk about really didn't get into service until 1944 and later.
In other words, the little bit longer you talk about, would probably be about 1-1/2 years.
Japan would have been stronger in their bases and we would have had to expend more human lives.
In '45 we had 3 total nukes. One was popped in Alamogordo as a test. Then Hiroshima. Then Nagasaki. If Japan didn't surrender then, then we were going to have to go in. Change the timeline 1-1/2 years and Japan WOULD NOT have surrendered in '45 after Nagasaki.
You can recite all the happy horsesh-t platitudes you want. The fact remains, change Japans 2 blunders and it changes the dynamics of the Pacific theater.
Now, what happens in 1-1/2 years in China, if the US isn't able to launch reasonable campaigns? At some point Japan goes from being over extended in areas, to conquerors able to make use of the resources and infrastructure.