Why Donald Trump’s Polling Is Scaring The Hell Out of The Professional Political Class…

The Conservative Tree House ^ | 7-17-2015 | sundance

[smoothsailing]

July 17, 2015

Why Donald Trump’s Polling Is Scaring The Hell Out of The Professional Political Class…

by sundance

We’ve explained the underlying problem of why the GOP hates their own base – and why they will never do anything to stop the progressive agenda. The GOP are committed to #1) ObamaCare remaining; #2) Comprehensive Immigration Reform to include Amnesty; and #3) Common Core Education Standards. We’ve also explained why admitting that factual reality is just a matter of following the facts where they lead.

When you admit the problem, and finally agree to stop being a co-dependent in your own diminishment, you join a growing coalition of supporters for a candidate outside the professional political class, the establishment GOP.

Here’s why the Donald Trump polling is creating such apoplectic fits amid the “establishment”; and it’s not just that Trump is now leading in every regional and national poll. It’s something more…

In almost every poll, Trump is winning the overall GOP race despite half of the poll sample not believing he is really serious about his presidential bid.

Pause for a moment and think carefully about what that means.

Example: If a polling sample is 1,000 people. Approximately 500 people don’t believe Trump is really in it to win it. Ergo he’s polling current victory numbers with only half the consideration available to all other candidates – AND YET HE’S STILL WINNING.

Long term – what do you think will happen when more and more people begin to accept that Donald Trump is actually sticking out this race to win the nomination?

As each week goes by that skeptical segment of the electorate will diminish – and more people begin to realize he’s in this race to become president. This shift in consideration only adds to the potential for Trump’s polling numbers to continue rising.

Conversely, all the other candidates already have achieved feasible consideration by 100% of the polling electorate. While their numbers may fluctuate based on their ongoing policy proposals, advocacy and/or stumbles amid the campaign trail, they begin their campaign with 100% of the audience paying attention to them as a factual candidate.

The professional political class is desperately trying to avoid facing this reality, and they are consistently downplaying Trump as a candidate, while emphasizing the portion of the polled electorate who don’t view Trump as sticking it out. They are, in essence, gaslighting the audience.

Trump’s growing poll numbers is a frightening reality especially for the Jeb Bush team, who desperately need –and have strategically planned for– a highly divided electorate.

Team Jeb are relying on having a dozen (or so) various special-interest factions of the voting base so their own small ‘professional political class’ coalition of around 15 to 20% can win the primary.

The absolute nightmare scenario amid the Establishment GOP is that a single candidate can unite a voting block that is larger than Jeb Bush. The Decepticons have worked diligently to insure this would not happen; even, as many suspect, funding candidates to enter and remain in the race (Marco Rubio).

Team Jeb want’s Scott Walker/Ted Cruz/Rick Perry/Marco Rubio/Bobby Jindal carving up small segments of a larger conservative base; while Chris Christie/Lindsey Graham/Mike Huckabee/George Pataki carve up another segment; and Rand Paul/Carly Fiorina/Ben Carson/John Kasich divide up yet another.

CURRENT FOX NEWS – NATIONAL POLLING

All of these little bits, allow Jeb’s 15 to 20% to be the biggest piece of a severely divided electoral pie. By design, the large field plays directly into the hands of the GOP establishment.

Everything was going according to plan, until Donald Trump walked into the scene, and now their best laid GOPe plans are shredded.

Now why do you think Fox News Poll added this little addendum to their recent polling presentation?

[…] The Fox poll also asks voters their second choice candidate, which allows us to look at what happens to the lineup if someone were to drop out.

For example, if Trump decides to get out, Bush moves to the top spot at 19 percent, followed by Walker at 16 percent, Paul at 9 percent, Rubio at 8 percent, Carson at 7 percent, Cruz at 6 percent, Huckabee at 5 percent, Christie and Perry at 3 percent, and Fiorina, Kasich and Santorum get 2 percent (link)

Oh, now that’s a convenient “for example” dontcha think?

Almost as if there’s some kind of agenda at work.

One wonders why they didn’t publish a scenario where Jeb Bush dropped out, and see where that leaves the remaining candidates?

Hmmm?…. Well, let me think on that for a minute…

Candidate Jeb Bush attends Chamber of Commerce dinner with Fox’s Rupert Murdoch and Valerie Jarrett (December 2014)

Nuf said?

[867V309]

But not by the American people

Right.

[Hostage]

It’s a Fox Poll, not to be taken seriously. Cruz is winning over the grass roots from all others and now sharing some with Trump.

[A CA Guy]

But Fox is the one only inviting the top ten.

[i_robot73]

Yep. He has also been the 1st out of the gate with the ‘correct’ words most people want to hear, while many/most others in the field pull the ‘ol “I too believe that, eh, er...squirrel!” routine.

Nobody else has been talking about being top-dog in these trade agreements or actually ENFORCING the current immigration laws (as soon as I hear ‘comprehensive’, that pretty much = insider/get-along-2-go-along) and restoring America’s image and (hopefully) ideals.

[Hostage]

Fox is not making this election but they are sure trying to make it for Bonnie Prince Jeb.

[absalom01]

True, but at this point in the campaign, who’s the enemy? Trump has done a bang-up job of upsetting the Republican beltway set’s plan for a Bush III run, which the party base really doesn’t care for much at all.

He’s not running against Bush per se, but is taking aim, for reasons of his own, at the party establishment. Good for him, i say.

[absalom01]

That exact prospect keeps Jeb and his minders up at night.

[BobL]

“Herman Cain was leading the GOP for a while and he did a crash and burn. I expect that Trump will do the same, but unlike Cain, Trump has the money to run a third party run. And I wouldn’t put it past him.”

A lot of us were upset to see Cain crash 4 years ago - but TWO BIG DIFFERENCES: He wasn’t prepared to run, and he wasn’t worth billions.

Trump will be MUCH HARDER to stop.

[BobL]

“Where do the Trumpians go when it’s time to get serious? “

Most likely, the voting booth. Where will you go?

[DoodleDawg]

Trump will be MUCH HARDER to stop.

Honestly I don't think Trump is that much more prepared as a candidate than Cain was. But he does have the money to keep going as an independent if it wants. Bill Clinton won because of Trumps third party run. Could Hillary win the same way?

[Georgia Girl 2]

For some reason Cruz just isn’t polling very well. If things stay the same going forward I just hope Trump picks Ctuz for VP. They would be dynamic.

[smoothsailing]

For some reason Cruz just isn’t polling very well. If things stay the same going forward I just hope Trump picks Ctuz for VP. They would be dynamic.

h/t Bobalu

[rikkir]

Fox is the only poll showing him down that much, and it’s probably more related to Walker’s announcement, than anything he’s doing wrong.

Every poll for the last month before this one has shown steady moves up for Cruz.

The debates are going to be an average of all major polls, so Cruz should be in.

[rikkir]

So I am running as an American.

Funny you phrased it that way. Gene Simmons was on one of the FBC shows and asked what he thought about Trump, and he was very favorable.
He was then asked what party he belonged to. He said “Social issues, Liberal, Foreign Policy, and Economics, Very Conservative”. He then stated “I am a member of the American Party”

[rikkir]

But Fox is the one only inviting the top ten

They are using an average of all national major polls over the 6 weeks prior to a week before the debate.

Cruz should be in.

[Bobalu]

Trump, Cruz and Walker need to form a partnership.

They need to consolidate their supporters behind a single man.
This would ensure that Jeb! can’t win with 20%.

A few weeks after the first debate they need to chose who is the candidate for president, who will be VP and who will get a major cabinet position. I propose Trump/Cruz/Walker.

If they choose based solely upon standing in the polls it would probably be Trump/Walker/Cruz but I’d really prefer Cruz as VP.

With Trump they would not need to worry about fundraising.
With a partnership they could all spread out and campaign for the nomination at the same time.

It’s a really bad idea to split the conservative primary votes up into too many segments..that will get us Jeb!

If they did this there would be zero possibility of Jeb! getting the nomination.

Also, Trump must not declare that he will not go third party if he fails to get the nomination! This is the only thing he can hold over the GOPe’s head to prevent whatever evil schemes they have in the works to deny him the nomination.

[hoosiermama]

A lot of people are a combination. We need to emphasis that if we expect to
Get the cross over vote

[hoosiermama]

He wrote his book laying out how to make American #1 Again years ago. (Amazon.com ).
I’ve yet to see any other candidate of either party lay out their ideas

[BobL]

“Honestly I don’t think Trump is that much more prepared as a candidate than Cain was.”

Cain was a great guy and I was getting very close to dropping some bucks on him, but I specifically remember him being asked about the “Right of Return” regarding Palestinian so-called ‘refugees’. It was not a “gotcha” question, but rather something that had been in the news on a periodic basis for decades and was just in the news that week. Cain politely admitted that he was totally unfamiliar. At the time, I think half of the people on this site was familiar with the term. I knew then he, like Perry, simply wasn’t wonkish enough to have a chance in the process (Perry had plenty of other problems too).

I still haven’t seen that in Trump. If I do, I’ll write him off too.

[Verginius Rufus]

Lindsey’s at 0%. I’m surprised he’s that high.